World Cup Preview #2 Spain
Previewing Spain's chances at the World Cup
Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Spain.
Spain is the reigning European Champions, beating Germany, France, and England along the way. However, they have not won the World Cup since 2010 and were upset by Morocco in the Round of 16 in Qatar. Luis de la Fuente has lost only one competitive match since his appointment at the beginning of 2023, making Spain one of the obvious favorites to win the World Cup.
For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.
At the end of this series, I will post my final rankings before the World Cup begins. In addition, I will be simulating the World Cup, which will likely be released the week before the tournament starts.
I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.
This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.
In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:
How did they get here?
UEFA World Cup qualifying is split into two rounds. In the first round, all European countries are divided into 12 groups, with the winners of each group automatically qualifying for the World Cup.
The second round of the playoffs consisted of the twelve group runners-up and the best four Nations League group winners, based on the Nations League interim overall ranking, who finished outside the top two of their qualifying group.
They drew one match with Turkey, but aside from that, Spain was incredible in qualifying, outscoring their opponents 21-2.
Spain Stats
All data is from footystats.org & FotMob
Spain is one of the few teams in the world that have found that perfect balance between control and aggression.
At the Euros two summers ago, they averaged 58.5% of the ball, but also had the highest xG per 90 minutes of anyone in the tournament. Then, in World Cup qualifying, they didn’t let anyone see the ball, holding 66% possession while also creating the fourth-most big chances and taking the second-most shots.
Because Spain holds so much possession and it’s so hard to get the ball off of them, they are really difficult to create chances against. At the Euros, they only allowed 6.2 expected goals in seven matches, and if you remove their last qualifying match against Turkey (which was meaningless because they’d already won the group), they only allowed 2.81 xG in five matches.
Spain is a team that creates most of its chances through the middle of the pitch and typically tries to overload opponents in that area. They play the same style they always have, playing a lot of short passes through the opposition.
So, it probably won’t shock you, but Spain averaged the most accurate passes of anyone in Europe during World Cup qualifying.
Spain Key Players
Spain has, in my opinion, the best player in world football on their squad.
Lamine Yamal is the best chance creator on the planet, and the things he is able to do with the ball are out of this world. He doesn’t have his goal-scoring prowess, but his dribbling and passing are just as good as Lionel Messi's in his prime. He’s also doing it all at only 18 years old.
This season, along with Michael Olise, he was the best chance creator in Europe being involved in 41 goals for Barcelona.
image via Scout Lab
What makes Yamal so dangerous in a system like Spain is because forces the opposition to make a decision. Because Spain likes to try and overload the middle of the pitch, if you commit enough bodies to keep a numerical advantage centrally, then you are leaving Yamal out wide 1 v 1 against the fullback.
That is what makes him so dangerous and why Spain’s attack is almost impossible to slow down.
The other key player for Spain at this World Cup is going to be Pedri.
He truly the conductor of the Spanish attack and the key to Spain not only building out of the back, but playing through the middle of opponents.
This season at Barcelona, Pedri had the eighth most chances created and the second most accurate passes in La Liga.
A lot of what he does simply will not so up in the data, but when you put on the film, you’ll see what truly makes him special.
Spain Tactics
Spain play the most beautiful football of anyone in this tournament. They have the perfect balance between control and aggression, along with the quick passing ability to play right through the opposition.
If you go watch the second goal they scored against Turkey in their 6-0 drubbing, you’ll see what I mean.
What makes Spain so difficult to play against is because they are so techincally sound with the ball, it’s really hard to get the ball off of them. They will create all of these passing triangles or diamonds around the pitch to create numerical advantages and use them to their advantage.
Here against Georgia at the Euros, they set up a midfield diamond, which forced Georgia to stay compact, but also had a passing triangle out wide with a numerical advantage.
They aren’t set on always overloading the middle of the pitch either, they will play through opponents wherever they can find advantages.
They also will quickly hit you on the counter when they have the opportunity. Their first goal against Germany they quickly play Yamal into space to let him go 1 v 1 against the fullback.
Once he drew two defenders over to him, it set up Olmo to make a run into the top of the 18 yard box where Yamal found him.
Spain out of possession will press high man to man all match long. During World Cup qualifying, they tied Austria for winning possession in the final third at the highest rate and at the Euros they led the field with 11 fast break shots and scored twice from them.
It’s this type of versatility that makes Spain so difficult to play against and why I think they are going to win the World Cup this summer.