World Cup Preview: #3 England
Previewing England's chances at the World Cup
Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at England.
They have come so close to bringing football home in recent years. Losing in the finals of the last two Euros, losing in the semifinals of the 2018 World Cup, and getting knocked out by France at the 2022 World Cup, it’s been nothing but heartbreak for the English National Team.
Is this the year they finally do it? Can Thomas Tuchel finally bring football home to England? They have a loaded squad and are one of the favorites once again, but they need to get over that final hurdle to get the monkey off their back.
For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.
At the end of this series, I will post my final rankings before the World Cup begins. In addition, I will be simulating the World Cup, which will likely be released the week before the tournament starts.
I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.
This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.
In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:
How did they get here?
UEFA World Cup qualifying is split into two rounds. In the first round, all European countries are divided into 12 groups, with the winners of each group automatically qualifying for the World Cup.
The second round of the playoffs consisted of the twelve group runners-up and the best four Nations League group winners, based on the Nations League interim overall ranking, who finished outside the top two of their qualifying group.
England was perfect in qualifying, and their fans really could not complain about the job Thomas Tuchel did. They went 8-for-8 and did not allow a single goal.
England Stats
All data is from footystats.org & FotMob
England has the best defense in the World, and they showed that during qualifying. Since the 2022 World Cup, in non-friendlies, England has allowed only 0.59 xG per 90 minutes, the best mark in all of Europe.
When you compare their defensive numbers to everyone else in qualifying, it shows how difficult it is to create chances against them.
Even at the Euros two summers ago, under ultra-conservative Gareth Southgate, England had the highest ground-duel win rate in the tournament at 55.6%.
Offensively, there really shouldn’t be any question marks because not only is their attack loaded with talent, but Tuchel has implemented the right tactical system to get the most out of them.
During qualifying, Tuchel was trying to find that perfect balance between control and aggression because he knew that under Southgate, England was too focused on controlling matches and taking risks.
Their offensive stats below really need to be taken in context because, on the surface, I am sure many England fans will not be satisfied with these metrics. England, for pretty. Much of the entire qualifying campaign was played with a lead. It made no sense, against teams like Latvia or Andorra, to continue aggressively pushing forward when they knew they could control the match and deny them any chances at the opposite end of the pitch.
It is relevant to mention that England held 70% possession during qualifying, so Tuchel is not trying to completely abandon the foundation that Southgate built, but only add onto it.
England Key Players
All data is from transfermarkt.com
Obviously, England is one of the three most talented teams in the world, but Thomas Tuchel certainly caused a commotion with his squad selection. In my opinion, I think he got it pretty much right, given that the players he chose fit his tactical philosophy. The only change I would have made is to include Cole Palmer in the squad.
England’s success at the World Cup, in my opinion, hinges on two players.
The first is Harry Kane.
Kane had the best season of his career at age 32, scoring an absurd 61 goals in all competitions for Bayern Munich. We’ll get to this in the tactical section, but it’s not only his sheer production in front of the net, but it’s also what he provides in build-up. Tuchel uses him the same way Vincent Kompany did at Bayern Munich this season, consistently dropping deep to get on the ball to supply the attack, not just be the end product of it.
If he is firing and playing at the level for England, as he did for Bayern Munich this season, football may just be coming home.
The other player that I think is vitally important to England’s success is Declan Rice.
In my opinion, Rice is the best all-around midfielder in the world and will be a massive key for England’s success in not only controlling matches, but progressing the ball as well.
England have a true number six in Elliot Anderson that can act as a single pivot and allow Rice to play as the left sided number eight, which is a role he does better than anyone.
image via Scout Lab
He will be pivotal for England, not only helping them build out of the back, but also as a creator in the final third playing that more advanced role when they face teams that play extreme low blocks against them.
England Tactics
There is so much more that Tuchel has done tactically with England, but he is one of the most versatile managers at setting up his team in ways that suit them best against a given opponent, rather than following a rigid tactical system.
England have varied between a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 during qualifying, but to be honest it really doesn’t make much of a difference because of how dominant they are on the ball.
The thing Tuchel, I believe, has figured out with England is balance. With a squad this talented, you simply don’t want to end up at one extreme end of the pendulum.
When England build up, Tuchel really favors a box midfield, which allows England to control the central parts of the pitch. Sometimes, a center back or Declan Rice will slot in alongside Elliot Anderson, but he’s perfectly capable of acting as a single pivot if England want to get more aggressive and build up in a 3-1-6 to overload the last line of the opponents defense.
When England get into the final third, Tuchel has them in a pretty standard 3-2-5 with one of the fullbacks inverting. Here it’s Myles Lewis-Skelly, but both Reece James and Nico O’Reilly are comfortable playing in midfield and John Stones can also invert, so it really gives England a lot of versatility and makes them difficult to prepare for.
Going along the lines of versatility, Harry Kane makes England even more difficult to prepare for. England, Kane was consistently playing as a standard number nine under Southgate because England has so many talented attacking midfielders that could drop deep in build up.
Because of that, he was isolated quite a bit under Southgate and teams were able to keep him quiet, which is why he only scored five goals in the last two major international tournaments.
Two examples from qualifying of why it’s so great to have him be able to drop deep into these pockets of space.
In the first example, Noni Madueke is going to make a run into the space not only created by both Morgan Rogers and Harry Kane dropping in. Because Kane made a slight move towards the ball, it kept the centerback pinned to him and allowed Madueke to eventually score.
The second example is a carbon copy of what Kane did all season for Bayern Munich and is a big reason why Luis Diaz and Michael Olise put up incredible numbers. Here he drops all the way into England’s final third, forcing either the center back to follow him, or giving England and overload in build up.
When he drops deep, he can make these late runs into the box, which makes it really hard to mark him.
Here he doesn’t get the ball, but you can see he had a free run into the box without anybody marking him.
If Tuchel can find the right balance, England without a doubt can win this World Cup.
120 looks a little rich for Rash!