World Cup Preview: #30 Iran
Previewing Iran's chances at the World Cup
Continuing my preview of each of the 48 teams in the World Cup today, we are taking a deeper look at Iran.
There were questions about the ongoing war, whether or not Iran would participate, but there has been no indication of them backing out. This will be their fourth straight appearance at the World Cup, but they have never made it past the group stage.
For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.
At the end of this series, I will post my final rankings before the World Cup begins. In addition, I will be simulating the World Cup, which will likely be released the week before the tournament starts.
I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.
This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.
In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:
How did they get here?
Asian World Cup qualifying consists of essentially five rounds.
Iran was placed in a group with Uzbekistan, but breezed through to the third round.
Second Round Qualifying
They were drawn with Uzbekistan again in the third round of qualifying. However, Iran dominated their 10 matches, losing only one and finishing two points ahead of Uzbekistan to automatically qualify for the World Cup.
Third Round Qualifying
Iran Stats
All data is from Footystats.org
Iran is a very impressive team and should not be taken lightly at this World Cup.
They won the xG battle in every single match at the Asian Cup, including a 2-1 win over Japan, the best team in Asia.
I'm sure many people view Iran as a fairly defensive team, but their offensive numbers are really impressive. Since November of 2023, there has been only one match in which they’ve created under 1 expected goal, and they've averaged 2.11 xG per 90 minutes.
Iran led the Asian Cup in both big scoring chances and expected goals, showing they are more than just a low-block, counterattacking team.
Defensively, Iran only allowed 0.85 xG per 90 minutes during World Cup qualifying, but outside of Japan, they haven’t played very difficult competition.
Iran Key Players
All data is from transfermarkt.com
Note: This is the projected roster, not the official one.
Iran, talent-wise, is really behind many teams in this range. As you can see, most of their players play domestically in Iran or in the UAE Pro League.
Their best and two most important players are their strikers up top.
Mehdi Teremi has played for some big clubs like Inter and Porto, but is on the back end of his career, currently playing for Olympiacos in the Greek Super League.
He’s really been struggling in the lead-up to this World Cup because even though he’s scored 12 goals this season, he hasn’t found the back of the net since February 4th.
He led the team with 10 goals and 7 assists during qualifying, but Iran will need him to find his form if they want any shot at making it out of the group stage.
Sardar Azmoun is the other big name in Iran, who is also at the back end of his career at 31.
He’s played for big clubs like Leverkusen, Roma, and Zenit St. Petersburg, but since 2024, he’s been playing for Shabab Al-Ahli in the UAE Pro League.
He missed most of the club season with a broken foot and has only scored twice in 12 appearances.
Iran Tactics
Iran has played many teams that are below them talent-wise, but they have a really nice blend of tactics.
They are effective building out of the back and have no problem playing directly through their two big forwards, allowing them to win duels and second balls.
A good example of their ability to play through opponents is here against Uzbekistan.
Quick passing opened up space to run at the Uzbekistan back line, while Azmoun makes a quick run off the back line and is found for a dangerous chance.
Then, when you take, for example, their win over Japan at the Asian Cup, you’ll see time and time again Iran baiting Japan into pressing them and then playing balls over the top, relying on their physical advantage.
While Iran’s offensive numbers are impressive, their low block defending is what is going to be the difference at this World Cup.
They will press high man to man if needed, but more often than not, they will defend in a 4-1-4-1 or a 4-4-2 block and will defend in a higher block than most people realize.
Even though Iran may not have the talent compared to most teams, but their underlying numbers are impressive and they have a solid tactical foundation. They are in a favorable group with Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand, so don’t be surprised if they make some noise in this group.
Azmoun not called