World Cup Preview: #4 Germany
Previewing Germany's chances at the World Cup
Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Germany.
Ever since they won the World Cup in 2014, Germany has been on a really bad run in international tournaments. They’ve failed to make it out of the group stage of the last two World Cups and haven’t made it past the semifinals in the last two Euros. They bring an uber-talented team, led by one of the best managers in world football, to this tournament, looking to reclaim the glory of a decade ago.
For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.
At the end of this series, I will post my final rankings before the World Cup begins. In addition, I will be simulating the World Cup, which will likely be released the week before the tournament starts.
I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.
This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.
In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:
How did they get here?
UEFA World Cup qualifying is split into two rounds. In the first round, all European countries are divided into 12 groups, with the winners of each group automatically qualifying for the World Cup.
The second round playoffs consisted of the twelve group runners-up and the best four Nations League group winners, based on the Nations League interim overall ranking, who finished outside the top two of their qualifying group.
Germany started off their qualifying campaign with a shocking loss to Slovakia, but after that took care of business to finish at the top of an easy qualifying group.
Germany Stats
All data is from footystats.org & FotMob
Germany obviously didn’t go through Euro qualifying since they were the host nation, so they have the smallest data sample of anyone in this tournament.
If we are being honest, they were put in one of the easiest qualifying groups among the bigger nations. They took care of business, but their offensive numbers really weren’t that impressive compared to some of the other elite teams.
A lot of their problems stemmed from open play, as five of their 16 qualifying goals came from set pieces.
The problem was that every team in their group played the most extreme low block you’ll ever see. So it’s not a surprise that Germany controlled 67% of the ball and had the fourth-most completed passes, behind Spain, England, and Portugal.
Even though they weren’t particularly impressive offensively in qualifying, they had the highest xG per 90 minutes at the Euros two summers ago.
Defensively, they have been rock solid, allowing only three goals during qualifying and, since the 2022 World Cup, only 0.74 xG per 90 minutes. At the Euros, they conceded only 3.8 expected goals over five matches, and I don’t expect them to fall off at this World Cup.
Germany Key Players
All data is from transfermarkt.com
Germany is absolutely loaded with talent in their midfield.
Given the way Germany plays, trying to maintain a high level of control, there really isn’t one cornerstone person that makes everything work because they have a lot of depth.
If Florian Wirtz can find the form he had at Leverkusen last year, that will take Germany to the next level. He struggled at Liverpool this season in several areas, as the physical transition from the Bundesliga to the Premier League clearly affected him.
He played the most minutes of any outfield player during World Cup qualifying, so Nagelsmann is clearly going to rely on him to conduct the attack.
image via Scout Lab
You also have to ask what type of production Germany is going to get up top from their strikers?
Kai Havertz struggled to stay fit all season for Arsenal, but when he was in the squad, he made a massive difference, acting as the false nine to help them build out of the back. He has done the same for Nagelsmann and was Germany's main striker at the Euros two summers ago.
Germany has one of the best double-pivot midfields in this tournament, with Alexander Pavlovic and Joshua Kimmich, who are also teammates at Bayern Munich. Kimmich may be forced to play right back in this tournament, with Leon Goretzka likely slotting in beside Pavlovic. I am not sure everyone realizes how good Pavlovic is at only 22 years old.
There are loads and loads of talent on this German squad. It’s up to Nagelsmann to make all of the pieces fit into the puzzle.
Germany Tactics
Julian Nagelsmann is one of the best tactical managers in modern football. Germany unfortunately were knocked out by Spain at the Euros, but they put on a show and have so much versatility in what they can do in possession.
The key to Germany is finding that perfect blend between control and aggression. When they find it, they become almost impossible to beat.
Nagelsmann puts a big emphasis on overloading opponents through the middle, but the main thing I want you to remember is that the system is built on forwards making runs in behind.
You can see here against Slovakia, all three forwards drop into the space in between the lines.
Leroy Sane makes a run once the pass is played centrally to Havertz and puts it in the back of the net.
You also have situations like this against Denmark at the Euros where they are trying to create a central overload, but Havertz ends up making a quick run off the back line and gets off a dangerous shot.
The other great part about Germany is if you press them, they not only have the ability to play right through you, but also love to aggressively play balls over the top to allow their forwards to go win 1 v 1 matchups.
Their second goal against Denmark is a good example of that.
If Germany can get the Leverkusen version of Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz can produce up top, they have the roster and the tactical system to win this World Cup.