World Cup Preview: #16 USA
Previewing USA's chances at the World Cup
Continuing to preview each of the 48 teams in the World Cup today, we are taking a deeper look at my home country, the United States of America.
The United States comes into this World Cup not in the greatest form since their Round of 16 exit at the 2022 World Cup. They have failed to win either of the Gold Cups, lost the latest CONCACAF Nations League, and have been soundly beaten in friendlies by a number of different nations.
Since the very first World Cup in 1930, the United States has never made it past the Round of 16. Can the host nation shock the world and make a deep run?
For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.
At the end of this series, I will post my final rankings before the World Cup begins. In addition, I will be simulating the World Cup, which will likely be released the week before the tournament starts.
I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.
This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.
In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:
How did they get here?
Because the United States is one of the three host nations alongside Mexico and Canada, it automatically qualified for the World Cup.
USA Stats
All data is from Footystats.org
The data for the United States is not good, and the problem I have when analyzing the competitive matches is that there have been so few under Mauricio Pochettino that featured the full squad you are going to see at the World Cup.
A majority of the United States’ key players did not play in the Gold Cup this past summer, and a few were missing from the CONCACAF Nations League.
The United States went on a good run of friendly results before getting hammered by Belgium and Portugal in March.
All data is from Footystats.org & FotMob
As you can see, the United States has held its own and even controlled a majority of the possession against most teams, but the matches against Belgium and Portugal are really concerning for their chances at the World Cup.
The question that naturally comes up is how much Mauricio Pochettino has improved the USMNT.
Looking at his 10 non-friendly matches in charge compared to Gregg Berhaltar’s final 10 matches in charge, there really isn’t much of a difference between the two managers.
All data is from WyScout
USA Key Players
All data is from transfermarkt.com
A majority of the United States roster plays for some of the top clubs across Europe, which is encouraging, but their overall squad value is nowhere near that of some of the top teams in this World Cup.
The main man is still Captain America, Christian Pulisic.
He is coming off a bit of a down year at AC Milan in terms of overall production, with 10 goals and four assists. However, those numbers do not tell the entire story. He moved over to play more as a left winger this season, but still put up some of the best underlying numbers in Serie A compared to other wingers in the league.
image via Scout Lab
The attack will also hinge on the type of production they get from the striker position. Folrian Balogun should, without a doubt, be the main striker up top for Pochettino. He had a really productive season for Monaco in Ligue 1, scoring 19 goals in all competitions and posting a 0.54 xG per 90-minute rate.
.You could go to a number of different players in terms of importance, but for me, the success of the United States team is anchored by Weston McKennie.
He can play any role needed in the midfield and is truly the definition of an all-around midfielder. He’s been at Juventus for a number of seasons, and this year, in terms of defending, was one of the best in Serie A.
He, along with Tyler Adams are really going to be the key to how far the United States goes in this tournament.
USA Tactics
If you want to check it out, I did a tactical analysis of the United States last summer for Tactical Football Analysis.
I’ll be using some examples from that, along with my tactical analysis of their loss to Panama in the CONCACAF Nations League, and their previous two matches against Belgium and Portugal.
The United States is more than likely going to hold a lot of possession during the group stage, so let’s look at how they build up against a passive defensive block.
Typically, the United States will build up in a 3-2-5, emphasizing overload in the middle to isolate either their fullbacks or one of the wingers out wide.
What will be interesting in this World Cup is how Pochettino uses Pulisic. Typically as the ‘10’ you would expect him to roam the central parts of the pitch, but he’s actually been much better playing as a right winger for the United States.
Here’s an example of his last non-friendly match for the USMNT.
The United States is able to create a 3v2 out wide against Panama’s 5-4-1. Tanner Tessmann pulls the center back out, creating space for Weston McKennie to run in behind and find Josh Sargent with a cross that ends up hitting the bar.
You’ll also see the United States overloading one side of the pitch to play a switch ball to the opposite end of the pitch to create a 1 v 1 or 2 v 1 situation.
This is where using Pulisic in more of a right-wing role could be helpful for the United States, allowing him to go 1v1.
Defensively, I think the United States has some issues to sort out. The 5-2 loss to Belgium was pretty bad, as the Belgians exploited a weakness in the United States’ defense.
Jon Mackenzie of the Athletic does a nice breakdown here.
The United States will typically defend out of a 4-4-2. They will press out of this shape, but I would imagine given what we saw in their two friendlies against Belgium and Portugal, that they will be defending in more of a midblock.
