World Cup Preview: #35 Australia
Previewing Australia's chances at the World Cup
Continuing on with previewing each of the 48 teams in the World Cup today, we are taking a deeper look at Australia.
This will be the Socceroos’ sixth straight appearance at the World Cup. They impressively beat both Denmark and Tunisia at the 2022 World Cup to reach the Round of 16, losing to the eventual champions, Argentina.
For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.
At the end of this series, I will post my final rankings before the World Cup begins. In addition, I will be simulating the World Cup, which will likely be released the week before the tournament starts.
I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.
This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.
In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:
How did they get here?
Asian World Cup qualifying consists of essentially five rounds.
Australia was literally perfect in their second-round group. They won all six of their matches and outscored their opponents 22 to 0.
Second Round Qualifying
They were placed in a third round qualifying group with the best team in Asia: Japan. Australia went unbeaten in both matches against Japan and suffered only one shocking loss to Bahrain, finishing second in the group to qualify for the World Cup.
Third Round Qualifying
Australia Stats
All data is from Footystats.org
Australia, on paper, looks really impressive with its results, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. They did have a +7 expected goal differential in third-round qualifying, but their expected goal differential was only +1.67.
Even in second-round qualifying, they only had a +11.2 expected goal differential compared to their +22 actual goal differential.
Australia is a team that heavily relies on winning duels and plays very directly when in possession.
During qualifying, they averaged the third-most accurate long balls per 90 minutes and had seven of their goals come from set pieces.
Defensively, they pressed pretty effectively high up the pitch, winning possession at the second-highest rate behind only Japan, and they allowed only 1.08 xG per 90 minutes during third-round qualifying.
Australia Key Players
All data is from transfermarkt.com
Note: This is the projected roster, not the official one.
Compared to a lot of teams in this range, Australia doesn’t have a lot of high-value talent.
Instead, they have a lot of players with loads of experience and fit their system really well.
The main man in the middle of the pitch that makes everything tick for Australia is Jackson Irvine. He and his St. Pauli side is having a difficult season in the German Bundesliga, but he is putting elite receiving and aerial duel numbers.
image via Scout Lab
Australia Tactics
When you play Australia, you'd better be ready for a physical battle.
Tactically, they are old school. They line up in a 3-4-3, they play direct balls up to the forward, and they are lethal on the counter.
They love to get the ball from back to front as quickly as possible. This sequence against Indonesia is a good example.
Australia also puts a big emphasis on set pieces. On corners, they will pile a ton of players into the six-yard box because they have a massive advantage in the air over many teams in this World Cup.
Defensively, they will play a midblock and look to force turnovers around the midway line to start a counterattack.
Because they have recently switched to a 3-4-3, they defend in a 5-3-2 like this when out of possession.
Japan specifically tried to play a lot of balls over the top on Australia, and they were a little shaky defending them because they do not have elite pace on their back line. However, they are very good at denying space through the middle because they have great ball winners, so the United States, Turkey, and Paraguay will likely have to play pretty direct against Australia.