World Cup Preview: #23 Turkey
Previewing Turkey's chances at the World Cup
Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Turkey.
This is only the third time Turkey has qualified for the World Cup. The last time they competed in this competition, they went on a magical run in South Korea in 2002, finishing third. They are coming off a quarterfinals trip at the Euros in 2024, so they will be a tough out in this tournament.
For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.
At the end of this series, I will post my final rankings before the World Cup begins. In addition, I will be simulating the World Cup, which will likely be released the week before the tournament starts.
I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.
This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.
In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:
How did they get here?
UEFA World Cup qualifying is split into two rounds. In the first round, all European countries are divided into 12 groups, with the winners of each group automatically qualifying for the World Cup.
The second round playoffs consisted of the twelve group runners-up and the best four Nations League group winners, based on the Nations League interim overall ranking, who finished outside the top two of their qualifying group.
Turkey finished second in their qualifying group, three points behind Spain, and qualified for the second-round playoffs.
They were drawn to play Romania in the first round of the playoffs and beat them 1-0. They then traveled to Kosovo and beat them 1-0 to qualify for the World Cup.
Turkey Stats
All data is from Footystats.org
Outside of their opening match against Georgia at the Euros, Turkey really wasn’t that impressive offensively, and more importantly, they were one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament.
Georgia was the only team to allow a higher xG per 90 minutes than Turkey, and it came down to them allowing far too many high-quality chances.
Their xG per shot of 0.13 was the worst of anyone in the tournament, and they also allowed the most goals from set pieces.
Vincenzo Montella was in charge of that Euro squad and didn’t really improve their defense during qualifying. They were hammered 6-0 by Spain in the first meeting and were lucky to draw in the second, conceding 2.61 expected goals.
They allowed 1.56 xG per 90 minutes in World Cup qualifying, which was 21st among the 54 teams in Europe.
Offensively, they are dangerous and can create chances against anybody. They averaged 54.1% possession during qualifying and almost two expected goals per 90 minutes.
However, while the underlying numbers look good, the rest of their stats really are not that impressive.
Turkey Offensive Stats
All data is from FotMob & on a per 90-minute basis
Turkey Key Players
All data is from transfermarkt.com
Note: This is the projected roster, not the official one.
All of the talent in Turkey’s squad is in their attack.
The entire attack runs through Real Madrid’s Arda Guler. He worked his way into the most difficult starting XI to get into and put incredible numbers for Los Blancos this season.
image via Scout Lab
For Turkey during World Cup qualifying, he was involved in five of Turkey’s goals and will be the key to their attack.
The other big name in Turkey’s attack is Kenan Yıldız.
He was one of the best wingers in Serie A this season because he is a deadly 1 v 1 dribbler and finishes at a high rate. He is a big key to the way Montella wants to attack in the final third.
He scored 10 goals and provided six assists for Juventus this season, but overall he was one of the best chance creators in Italy.
Turkey Tactics
When they played Romania in qualifying, they weren’t taking too many chances by using Kerem Aktürkoglu as a false nine, trying to create a five-man overload centrally while also maintaining a good rest defense on the perimeter so that Romania couldn’t counterattack them easily.
This is what Montella really tries to do in possession. He places a strong emphasis on overloading the middle, which can isolate their wingers to go 1 v 1 against the opposing fullbacks.
Having a player of Arda Guler's caliber is so important when you are trying to break down low-block defenses, because the ball he delivered to Kadioglu for the lone goal of the match against Romania was sublime.
Turkey is also a pretty good set-piece team, scoring six of their goals from set-pieces in qualifying, which was the fourth-highest mark in Europe.
Defensively, they are a bit passive, as their PPDA during qualifying was 14.37. They vary between a 4-4-2 and 5-3-2, depending on the opponent, but they really aren’t that great of a low-block defending team.
If you go back and watch the highlights from their 6-0 defeat to Spain, you’ll see they got played through time and time again.
Turkey is in a favorable group with the United States, Paraguay, and Australia, but once they have to face an elite team, they are going to get destroyed.