World Cup Preview: #14 Uruguay
Previewing Uruguay's chances at the World Cup
Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Uruguay.
The two-time World Cup champions are making their 15th appearance, but 2010 was the last time they made it past the Round of 16. They are coming into this World Cup off an impressive qualifying campaign and a third-place finish at the Copa America. They have a pretty easy path out of the group stage, so can Uruguay make a run similar to the one they made in 2010?
For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.
At the end of this series, I will post my final rankings before the World Cup begins. In addition, I will be simulating the World Cup, which will likely be released the week before the tournament starts.
I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.
This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.
In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:
How did they get here?
South American qualifying, without a doubt, is the most difficult of any of the confederations. With only 10 countries, everyone has to go to everyone else twice, and the road conditions are among the most difficult you will see in the world.
World Cup qualifying started all the way back in September of 2023, even before Copa America, so it’s an incredibly long road of 18 matches just to get to the World Cup.
The top six teams at the end of qualifying automatically go to the World Cup, and the seventh-place team goes to the inter-confederation playoffs.
Uruguay impressively finished in fourth place, tied on points with Colombia and Brazil.
Uruguay Stats
All data is from Footystats.org
Uruguay has a very direct style of play, but throughout qualifying in South America, their opponents' physicality limited them offensively.
In their 12 World Cup qualifying matches after Copa America, they only created 12.48 expected goals and failed to create over one expected goal in eight of those matches.
There are two things offensively that you are going to get from Uruguay: a lot of long balls and crosses.
At Copa America, Uruguay led the field, averaging 28 accurate long balls per match and also averaged the second-most accurate crosses.
Defensively, Marcelo Bielsa has transformed Uruguay into a team built around his famous tactical system. They are going to come at you, pressing high the whole match. They were second in World Cup qualifying in tackles per match and third in interceptions. In addition to that, they were in the top three in possession won in the final third, highlighting the effectiveness of their press.
image via FotMob
The one concern with Uruguay is that they press so aggressively that they can leave themselves open to getting hit on the break. After the Copa America, they allowed 15.28 expected goals over those 12 matches, which was among the highest marks in South America.
Uruguay Key Players
All data is from transfermarkt.com
Note: This is the projected squad, not the official one.
The main man that this entire tournament hinges on for Uruguay is Federico Valverde. He was one of Real Madrid’s most important players this season, playing a number of different positions and roles.
He had success at right back and even played right wing, scoring a hat trick against Manchester City in the Champions League.
For Uruguay, he will be the main man in the midfield, playing the number eight role and creating most of their chances in attack.
image via Scout Lab
The question mark for Uruguay, in my opinion, is what are you going to get out of Darwin Nunez up top? He obviously flopped at Liverpool and moved to the Saudi Pro League with Al-Hilal.
He underperformed at the club level, averaging 0.40 goals per 90 minutes, but his non-penalty xG per 90 minutes was 0.61. He’s had a finishing problem for a very long time now, and if he’s not finishing at a high level for Uruguay in this tournament, I question how far they can actually go.
image via Best11Scouting
He’s perfect for Bielsa’s system because he is a transition striker and an elite aerial threat in the box.
For Uruguay, their success in attack really comes down to Valverde and Nunez because those two accounted for 30% of their shots during World Cup qualifying.
Uruguay Tactics
Marcelo Bielsa’s system can be insanely effective given the right group of players and I believe he has that with the Uruguayan National Team.
When you play Uruguay, you better be ready for an up and down physical battle.
Out of possession, they love to press out of a midblock, closing off the middle of the pitch and forcing you beat them over the top. They have a ton of pace and really tough, experienced centerbacks on their back line, so it can be really difficult to create chances against them.
In possession they one of the few teams in this World Cup that no matter the opponent they are going to get the ball from back to front as quick as possible.
They love to play direct, but can also play out of the back pretty effectively. It’s typically a 4-1 base and the main purpose is to create numerical advantages out wide.
Even when they do build up it’s a lot of quick one touch passes rather than slow sustained build up because Bielsa is not interested in control.
In terms of a shape out of possession, it has varied for Bielsa since he’s been in charge. At times it can be a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-2-2, but mainly Uruguay sticks to man to man concepts, so a lot of their matches simply come down winning 1 v 1 matchups.