What are Real Madrid's chances of winning the treble?
A mathematical look at Los Blancos chances at silverware in 2025
Real Madrid is the most decorated team in the history of European football. They have won the Champions League a record 15 times, La Liga 36 times, and Copa del Rey 20 times.
While this season has been more of the same, but with the addition of Kylian Mbappe, a treble is now somewhat of the standard for this modern version of the “Galaticos”.
Yesterday, I did a piece on Barcelona’s chances of winning the quadruple, but Real Madrid is also in a decent position to win three trophies this season.
Of course there is still the possibility of Real Madrid winning the FIFA Club World Cup to add to their collection, but we will save that discussion for after the season.
Using my projections and simulations, below I will take a look at their percentage chance of how many trophies they are going to win.
La Liga
Currently based on my simulations, I have Real Madrid with a 30.33% chance of winning the La Liga title. They are currently trailing Barcelona by three points, but there is still an El Clasico left to be played in early May. Like I mentioned yesterday, Barcelona still has to play red hot Real Betis and also will finish with Villarreal and Athletic Bilbao.
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Champions League
Real Madrid are favorites along with Barcelona to take home the Champions League title.
Real Madrid is on the more difficult side of the bracket having a very difficult tie with Arsenal (who just got Bakayo Saka back from injury) and more than likely a red hot PSG in the semifinals.
Copa del Rey
After Barcelona took care of business against Atletico Madrid to reach the final, I have the Copa del Rey final projected as basically a coin flip.
Chance for the Treble
Aside from the mathematical aspect of this exercise, Barcelona has annihilated Real Madrid on both occasions this season and are standing in their way of at least two of the three trophies.
Based on the percentages above, I have Real Madrid on average winning 0.90 trophies for the remainder of the season.
After doing some math (binomial probability distribution), here are the percentage chances of Real Madrid winning each exact number of trophies
Probability of winning exactly 0 trophies: 31.80%
Probability of winning exactly 1 trophy: 48.08%
Probability of winning exactly 2 trophies: 18.54%
Probability of winning exactly 3 trophies: 1.58%