What are Barcelona's chances of winning the Quadruple
Barcelona have a history of winning multiple trophies in a season. In their history they have won 27 La Liga Titles, 31 Copa del Rey’s, and five Champions League trophies.
They had their famous ‘sextuple’ season in 2009 winning all six available trophies, which Bayern Munich in 2020 is the only other team to do. You want to take a guess who Bayern’s manager was in 2020? That’s right, none other than Hansi Flick.
He’s completely transformed Barcelona into one of the best attacking sides in Europe averaging 2.76 goals and 2.44 expected goals per 90 minutes. His high defensive line and aggressive tactics have brought him some criticism, but you cannot deny that he’s positioned Barcelona back as one of Europe’s elite teams.
Of all the teams in Europe, Barcelona is best positioned to win three or maybe even four trophies.
They already dismantled Real Madrid in the Spanish Super Cup 5-2 for their first trophy and they have a great chance to win the quadruple.
Barcelona will not be taking place in this summer’s FIFA Club World Cup, but if they win the Champions League, they will have chance for the UEFA Super Cup to make it a quintuple.
Using my projections and simulations, below I will take a look at their percentage chance of how many trophies they are going to win.
La Liga
Currently based on my simulations, I have Barcelona with a 66.17% chances of winning the La Liga title. They are currently holding a three point lead over Real Madrid, but there is still an El Clasico left to be played in early May. In addition to that, Barcelona still has to play red hot Real Betis and also will finish with Villarreal and Athletic Bilbao.
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Real Madrid’s schedule is tad easier, but the title is more than likely going to come down to El Clasico on May 11th.
Champions League
Barcelona and Real Madrid are your current favorites to take home the Champions League title.
Barcelona’s side of the bracket is certainly easier getting to avoid Arsenal, Real Madrid, and PSG, which makes them my projected favorite to take home the Champions League title.
Copa del Rey
Barcelona has a huge match today against Atletico Madrid with the tie being 4-4 on aggregate. Currently, I have them at a 58.42% chance of going through and then in the final I would have them 51.07% to lift the trophy against Real Madrid.
Chance for the Quadruple
Based on the percentages above, I have Barcelona on average winning 1.16 more trophies for the remainder of the season.
After doing some math (binomial probability distribution), here are the percentage chances of Barcelona winning each exact number of trophies
Probability of winning exactly 1 trophy: 18.99%
Probability of winning exactly 2 trophies: 34.42%
Probability of winning exactly 3 trophies: 22.58%
Probability of winning exactly 4 trophies: 3.95%