Gonna just echo the chat so far in that I love reading about your process. The quad value element is fascinating to analyze. As a Tottenham supporter, it is hard to believe you have them at 5 after watching most of their matches. Gives me a bit of hope for the remainder of the season. I guess I do have a request in that when you start documenting how teams rise and fall on a weekly basis, could you include each teams math that you describe in #4? Think it would be interesting to look at and give us more insight into why you have them where they are.
Appreciate the insight! I’ve read through this now a few times and I’m not sure if I’m totally sold on the squad value section. I understand where you’re coming from with regard to the team’s value equating to more talent, but I think it inflates the team’s power ranking based on players and not performance. For example, I calculated City & Bournemouth using actual goals weighted at the 20% you are using and came up with .31 for City (vs .67) & .3 for Bou (vs .22). I’m not sure if using this method would give a more accurate depiction of current rankings or if possibly weighting the squad value section lower than the other 2 when calculating the power rankings. Just some feedback and please let me know if I’m way off in my thinking.
As a math geek with an actuarial background, I LOVE reading stuff like this! Thanks so much for the insight into your process BJ. I am hoping to eventually learn how to try some of this on my own, so this is extremely helpful. Love your substack.
Gonna just echo the chat so far in that I love reading about your process. The quad value element is fascinating to analyze. As a Tottenham supporter, it is hard to believe you have them at 5 after watching most of their matches. Gives me a bit of hope for the remainder of the season. I guess I do have a request in that when you start documenting how teams rise and fall on a weekly basis, could you include each teams math that you describe in #4? Think it would be interesting to look at and give us more insight into why you have them where they are.
Appreciate the insight! I’ve read through this now a few times and I’m not sure if I’m totally sold on the squad value section. I understand where you’re coming from with regard to the team’s value equating to more talent, but I think it inflates the team’s power ranking based on players and not performance. For example, I calculated City & Bournemouth using actual goals weighted at the 20% you are using and came up with .31 for City (vs .67) & .3 for Bou (vs .22). I’m not sure if using this method would give a more accurate depiction of current rankings or if possibly weighting the squad value section lower than the other 2 when calculating the power rankings. Just some feedback and please let me know if I’m way off in my thinking.
As a math geek with an actuarial background, I LOVE reading stuff like this! Thanks so much for the insight into your process BJ. I am hoping to eventually learn how to try some of this on my own, so this is extremely helpful. Love your substack.
So much fun reading your info in relation to futures bets. Going to be a great rest of the season.
Thanks for sharing. Poor Everton