How to project individual football matches

I think it’s time for me to go into detail how I project out individual matches. I did a brief glimpse into it for the FIFA Club World Cup, but the way I do things is a little more in depth for domestic leagues throughout Europe.

Before I get started there are a couple things I want to say first. 1) This method of projecting is not perfect. Like I have said before, if were an experienced coder (hoping to learn python one day) and had access to more advanced data rather than what is simply free on the internet this probably could be a little more detailed. 2) This method is mainly only used for the big five leagues in Europe because the only place I can find xG by shot location is on understat.com. 3) This method does a decent job of accounting for overall team talent level, but a possession value model would be able to truly account for each individual player.

For this example, I am sticking with the Premier League and using Arsenal vs. Liverpool as an example.