Who is qualifying for the Champions League? (Updated)

Let's simulate the rest of the season in Europe's top five leagues

We’ve reached the business end of the season and there some compelling races for Champions League football.

Because of the expanded format there are two extra spots available for Europe’s top five league. England has already secured that extra spot meaning the top five will qualify. The second spot is pretty much sure with Italian teams needing a miracle to jump Spain in the UEFA coefficient rankings.

image via Football Rankings on X

So, for the purposes of the simulation, I am going to assume that Spain will be getting five spots.

The process that I am using to simulate the rest of the season is this: I am using my projections to get a win, draw, and loss probability for all remaining matches to then calculate expected points.

Expected Points = (Win Probability x 3) + (Draw Probability x 1)

I will add up those remaining expected points and add it the points total of each individual team.

Once I have expected points, I can run a Monte Carlo Simulation to determine the exact percentage chance of each team finishing in a Champions League spot.

I am using a standard deviation of 4 and I am running 10,000 simulations.

Let’s see who is going to be playing Champions League football next season.