Who is qualifying for Champions League? (Updated)

We’ve reached the business end of the season and there some compelling races for Champions League football.

Because of the expanded format there are two extra spots available for Europe’s top five league. England and Spain have secured an extra Champions League spot for next season’s competition.

image via Football Rankings on X

The process that I am using to simulate the rest of the season is this: I am using my projections to get a win, draw, and loss probability for all remaining matches to then calculate expected points.

Expected Points = (Win Probability x 3) + (Draw Probability x 1)

I will add up those remaining expected points and add it the points total of each individual team.

Once I have expected points, I can run a Monte Carlo Simulation to determine the exact percentage chance of each team finishing in a Champions League spot.

I am using a standard deviation of 4 and I am running 10,000 simulations.

Let’s see who is going to be playing Champions League football next season.