What are Barcelona's chances of winning the Quadruple
Barcelona have a history of winning multiple trophies in a season. In their history they have won 27 La Liga Titles, 31 Copa del Rey’s, and five Champions League trophies.
They had their famous ‘sextuple’ season in 2009 winning all six available trophies, which Bayern Munich in 2020 is the only other team to do. You want to take a guess who Bayern’s manager was in 2020? That’s right, none other than Hansi Flick.
He’s completely transformed Barcelona into one of the best attacking sides in Europe averaging 2.59 goals and 2.40 expected goals per 90 minutes. His high defensive line and aggressive tactics have brought him some criticism, but you cannot deny that he’s positioned Barcelona back as one of Europe’s elite teams.
Of all the teams in Europe, Barcelona is best positioned to win three or maybe even four trophies.
They already dismantled Real Madrid in the Spanish Super Cup 5-2 for their first trophy and followed that up with an extra time win over their bitter rivals in the Copa del Rey final.
Barcelona will not be taking place in this summer’s FIFA Club World Cup, but if they win the Champions League, they will have chance for the UEFA Super Cup to make it a quintuple.
Using my projections and simulations, below I will take a look at their percentage chance of how many trophies they are going to win.
La Liga Title Simulations
Currently based on my simulations, I have Barcelona with a 78.16% chances of winning the La Liga title. They are currently holding a four point lead over Real Madrid, but El Clasico is this weekend, which could completely flip the title race. In addition to that, Barcelona still has to play red hot Real Betis and also will finish with Villarreal and Athletic Bilbao.
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Champions League Simulations
PSG is the current favorite to take home the Champions League title, but Barcelona is not far behind them.
Barcelona’s title hopes are on the line against Inter on Tuesday where I have them projected at a 53.85% to advance to the final. I also have them projected at 27.21% to win the Champions League.
Chance for the Quadruple
Based on the percentages above, I have Barcelona on average winning 1.16 more trophies for the remainder of the season.
After doing some math (binomial probability distribution), here are the percentage chances of Barcelona winning each exact number of trophies
Probability of winning exactly 2 trophies: 15.65%
Probability of winning exactly 3 trophies: 62.98%
Probability of winning exactly 4 trophies: 21.36%