Unexpected Goals

Unexpected Goals

Premier League Simulations after Matchweek 35

Does Arsenal have one hand on the trophy?

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Unexpected Goals
May 04, 2026
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Things have flipped back in Arsenal’s favor after a rousing match on Monday at Hill Dickinson Stadium.

If it weren’t for a 97th-minute goal from Jeremy Doku, Arsenal would have the title pretty much wrapped up by now.

Manchester City still has a game in hand on the Gunners, but they now have some ground to make up in a very short amount of time.

Elsewhere, Tottenham are out of the relegation zone after a huge win at Aston Villa, while Brentford took down West Ham.

So where does each team stand heading into Matchweek 34?

I have included simulations for the Premier League title, Top 4, Top 5, Top 6, Top 7, Top Half, and Relegation.

These simulations are based on my projections using a Monte Carlo simulation of the Premier League 10,000 times.

If you’d like to know how I did this, I wrote an article about it this past summer.

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