Premier League Preview Matchweek 19

Arsenal and Manchester City both won to maintain their first and second place spots in the table after Matchweek 18.

What was surprising was Aston Villa coming from behind to beat Chelsea 2-1 and stay only three points behind Arsenal.

It’s a busy time in the Premier League with the festive fixtures, so forgive me for getting this preview out a little late.

This week we have a clear headliner on Tuesday with Aston Villa traveling to the Emirates to take on Arsenal.

These are the repeat fixtures of Matchweek 15, so I’ll be using a lot of what happened in those matches since it was so recent.

The race for Champions League football is really starting to heat up as well, so let’s dive into what should be a very fun Matchweek 19.

Burnley vs. Newcastle

Burnley in Possession vs. Newcastle out of Possession

In the previous match, Burnley didn’t do anything against Newcastle.

They were awarded a late penalty, but from open play they could not get the ball into the final third.

To be fair, they were playing a man down for the entire second half, but look at the chances they created in the first half when it was 11 v 11.

image via fbref.com

Burnley actually has been improving a little bit offensively over the past few weeks and were the better team against Everton on Saturday.

They are not going to try and build out of the back because in the previous meeting Martin Dúbravka launched 94% of his goalkicks.

So really what this match comes down to is who wins more duels.

Newcastle is third to last in the percentage of ground duels won, but in the previous meeting they won 54 of the 88 duels.

image via FotMob

Newcastle in Possession vs. Burnley out of Possession

Despite playing up a man for most of the match and holding 70% possession, Newcastle actually really struggled to create chances against Burnley’s low block.

You can see below that their two goals came from an olimpico from the corner and a penalty. Otherwise, most of their shots came from outside the box.

The one thing that Burnley does well is sit in a low defensive block, but they typically don’t do a good job of limiting the quality of their opponents chances.

Burnley is allowing a npxG per shot of 0.12, which is third worst in the Premier League mainly because they wear down as the match goes along.

image via understat.com

What Newcastle has struggled with all season is low blocks. They are at their best playing in transition and creating opportunities off high turnovers.

When teams don’t allow that to happen they can’t really create high quality chances.

Manchester United decided to concede 66% of the ball to Newcastle on Friday and what happened? After United went up 1-0 in the 24th minute, Newcastle did not attempt a shot until the 51st minute and all the shots they did take were really low quality, either getting blocked or were off target.

I have a feeling this is going to be a really low event match like the first meeting should have been if it weren’t for two penalties.