Premier League Matchweek 38 Preview
Previewing Championship Sunday
We have reached the end of the Premier League season.
Arsenal were crowned champions for the first time in 22 years on Tuesday, which takes some of the potential drama out of the final day.
There is still a lot left to play for, though, in terms of relegation and European football qualification.
With Aston Villa’s 3-0 win over Freiburg in the Europa League final, that potentially opens the door for the sixth-place team to qualify for the Champions League. For that to happen, Liverpool would need to beat Brentford, and Aston Villa would need to lose to Manchester City.
If that sixth-place spot becomes available, Bournemouth would more than likely qualify for the Champions League with a draw. Brighton would need to beat Manchester United and have Bournemouth lose to Nottingham Forest.
Brentford, Brighton, Chelsea, and Sunderland are all fighting for the other Europa League spot (7th place) and a Conference League spot (8th place).
Because Tottenham lost 2-1 to Chelsea on Tuesday, if West Ham beats Leeds and Tottenham loses to Everton, Spurs will be relegated to the Championship. Any other scenario would allow Tottenham to survive relegation.
Even with the title already decided, it should be a fun final day of the Premier League season, so let’s dive in.
Some matches have absolutely no meaning. The ones I will not be previewing are Wolves vs. Burnley, Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal, Fulham vs. Newcastle, and Manchester City vs. Aston Villa.
Brighton vs. Manchester United
Brighton has been on a great run recently because Fabian Hurzeler’s tactical variability has made them much better. They have lost two of their last three matches, but in their previous meeting against Manchester United in October, they showed signs of being a good build-up team.
Danny Welbeck started at striker, and even though Brighton were building in a 4-2 base, he was still dropping deep, which meant that De Ligt had to follow him.
The ball gets rotated to right side and played up to Rutter who is able to drop it off to Kadioglu.
Ayari makes a run into the space that has been vacated because both Rutter and Welbeck have pulled their center-backs out of position.
This would have been a Minteh tap-in, but Yoro fouled Ayari to stop the break.
Over the weekend against Leeds, they completely dominated the match and really should have gotten all three points, which would have put them in a great position to qualify for the Champions League.
image via FotMob
This match doesn’t mean anything to Manchester United because they have already secured a third-place finish. That means you could see a rotated squad from Michael Carrick, and, more than likely, United will concede a lot of possession to Brighton and sit in their 4-4-2 mid-to-low block, forcing Brighton to break them down rather than giving transition opportunities as they did in the previous meeting.
Brighton vs. Manchester United Win Probability
Liverpool vs. Brentford
This match definitely means more to Brentford than it does to Liverpool. It would take a catastrophic loss by Liverpool and a massive win by Bournemouth to make up for the six-goal difference tie breaker.
This is a great matchup for Brentford, who, with a win, could qualify for Europe for the first time in the club’s history.
We all know by now how amazing a transition and set-piece team Brentford is, but I want to focus on what they did to Liverpool earlier in the season, which is still relevant today.
Liverpool has been one of the worst set-piece defending teams this season, and Brentford took advantage of that with their opening goal.
Brentford opened the scoring from a throw-in, which had former set-piece coach Keith Andrews smiling from ear to ear.
Michael Kayode is an absolute weapon on throw-ins. Look at how far he’s able to throw this ball to allow Ajer to flick it onto Ouattara for the goal.
One of the big problems with Liverpool this season is that their counterpress was not at the level it was last year.
The second Brentford goal is a perfect example of the risk of trying to play through the middle if you are not a good counterpressing team.
Liverpool tried to play through the middle, but lost the ball.
Thiago is able to play a pass to Damsgaard, Liverpool doesn’t close the ball down in time, which allowed him to play Schade in behind for a fastbreak goal.
That lack of ball pressure also led to Brentford scoring a third goal and clinched the match. Janelt had plenty of time to play Schade in behind, and Thiago beat both Van Dijk and Konate to the penalty box.
Again, this match does not mean much to Liverpool, so they could very easily do what some teams have done to Brentford: concede a lot of possession to them and force them to break them down, rather than getting into an up-and-down track meet with them.
Liverpool vs. Brentford Win Probability
Nottingham Forest vs. Bournemouth
Bournemouth were brilliant on Tuesday against Manchester City, but this is going to be a much different type of opponent.
Nottingham Forest has nothing to play for, so they are likely to concede a lot of possession to Bournemouth, as they did under Sean Dyche in the previous meeting.
Despite losing the match, Nottingham Forest limited Bournemouth to many low-quality chances.
They only allowed Bournemouth to create 0.58 xG from 13 shots, with only five of those shots coming from inside the penalty area. The two goals that Bournemouth scored were wonder strikes; other than that, the Cherries weren’t really able to do anything.
image via FotMob
This match for Bournemouth is simply going to come down to how effective they are in the wide areas.
Nottingham Forest is not going to build out of the back and allow Bournemouth to create a bunch of high turnovers that lead to easy transition opportunities.
They are going to stay compact, which means the Cherries will have to win their 1 v 1 matchups out wide to create chances via crosses.
Bournemouth is so good in these types of situations, and a good example of that came in the previous meeting between these two.
Bournemouth get a 3 v 3 out wide and are able to play a 1-2 with Scott coming over to the right half space to play Tavernier into the vacated space by beating his man.
I have to mention how great a signing Adrien Truffert has been for Bournemouth, replacing Milos Kerkez. He’s an incredibly overlapping fullback who has provided so many dangerous crosses for the Cherries.
Bournemouth have nothing to lose by going for it, so I would not be surprised if they held over 60% of the ball in this match.
Nottingham Forest vs. Bournemouth Win Probability
Sunderland vs. Chelsea
This is really the only match of Championship Sunday where both teams have something to play for.
There is the potential that if Sunderland wins, Brighton loses, and Brentford loses or draws, they would be playing in the Europa League next year. The main thing, though, is they need a win to qualify for Europe, which kind of goes against their tactical philosophy.
They beat Chelsea in the previous meeting at Stamford Bridge mainly because they put in an incredible defensive performance, and the Blues could not break them down.
Enzo Maresca was in charge of Chelsea at the time, and what he did was revert Chelsea back to a 3-1-6 to try and overload Sunderland’s back five, but Sunderland kept dropping more midfielders in deeper to make sure that didn’t happen.
The lone goal Chelsea scored against the Black Cats came after they won the ball centrally and quickly hit them in transition.
Essentially, this is what Chelsea needs to do. They have hit Sunderland when they are out of position because I don’t think they are going to be able to break down their low block.
From a Sunderland perspective, this is a very interesting match because I don’t think you’ll see them go for it from the jump, but will more than likely methodically increase their aggressiveness as the match goes along.
One of the things they will do is load up and take advantage of their set piece opportunities.
I showed this chart earlier this week, but you can see that Chelsea is the worst set piece defending team in the Premier League, while Sunderland has had 38.13% of their shots come from set plays.
In the previous meeting, Sunderland scored their first goal from a thrown in and almost created one expected goal purely from set pieces.
image via FotMob
Sunderland vs. Chelsea Win Probability
Tottenham vs. Everton
Everton technically is still alive to qualify for the Conference League, but they are nine goals behind Chelsea in goal difference, so they realistically have nothing to play for other than trying to get Spurs relegated (which should be enough motivation in and of itself).
This match is going to be dominated by set pieces, just like the previous meeting. Tottenham scored two of their three goals and created 1.04 of their 1.72 xG purely from set pieces against Everton when they beat them 3-0 in October.
De Zerbi's ball is going to take a while to fully come to fruition at Tottenham, so in the short term, he is sticking to what they know best: sending in a bunch of crosses. One of their best chances against Chelsea is a good example of that.
You can see they are not trying to create a midfield overload to play through Chelsea; instead, they are pushing four guys up to the last line. Mathys Tel makes a run off the back line and gets on the end of the cross.
The problem, though, is that in the first half, this was one of only two shots Tottenham attempted.
We also have to remember the situation that Tottenham is in. They only need a draw from this match, and they will survive relegation, no matter what West Ham does. That means you will likely see them trying to build out of the back initially, but being very conservative and playing a lot of direct balls up to their forwards.
Everton will sit in a mid-block and try to deny Tottenham the chance to play through the middle, but I do think this match is going to be very low-event. Even though there were three goals scored in their match on Tuesday, Chelsea and Tottenham only combined for 1.55 xG from open play.
Tottenham vs. Everton
Leeds vs. West Ham
This will be the fourth meeting between these two sides and is probably the most important West Ham match since their Europa Conference League title win. They have no choice but to go for it, but that was kind of the situation they were in when these two met in the FA Cup quarterfinals.
Leeds went ahead by two goals, and West Ham clawed back and ended up having one of their best offensive performances of the season.
image via FotMob
This is what can happen when you get two very direct teams. Either it turns into a rock fight where nobody can control anything or generate any chances, or it becomes a basketball match with numerous chances at both ends of the pitch.
Leeds has absolutely nothing to play for in this match, so I would imagine they will concede a lot of possession to the Hammers to avoid getting hit on the break.
One thing that West Ham did really well in that previous meeting was crosses. The Hammers got the ball out wide repeatedly and kept firing in cross after cross. In total, they have an insane 17 accurate crosses into the penalty.
West Ham vs. Leeds Passes
image via FotMob
That is really what this match is going to come down to for the Hammers. Leeds is one of the best transition defenses, and they are quite good sitting in a low compact block. They will let West Ham cross the ball, so if the Hammers can go win their aerial duels, they will give themselves a chance of staving off relegation.
Leeds vs. West Ham Win Probability
