Premier League Matchweek 34 Data & Tactical Preview
Some thoughts on the seven Premier League matches this weekend
Note: I thought I’d save us all some time and avoid any analysis on Wolves vs. Leicester or Southampton vs. Fulham since two of those teams have already been relegated.
Yell at me in the comments if you think I should have wasted everyones time.
Chelsea vs. Everton
Chelsea in Possession vs. Everton out of Possession
You can chalk this up as another Chelsea struggle against low blocks.
I’ll be honest, I am tired of writing the same thing over and over again every week. Yes, Chelsea got a great late goal at the death to beat Fulham 2-1 and boost their chances of qualifying for the Champions League. If you look at it at face value, 13 shots with eight of them being on target and controlling almost 60% of the possession, it looks good.
But, when you look at the quality of chances that they had against the Cottagers, it tells a completely different story.
image via fbref.com
Their best chance of the match came off a set piece and one shot from open play had an xG rating higher than 0.10. That is bad.
I cannot tell you how maddening it must be as a Chelsea fan to continually watch their wingers cut inside and take some low range shot from right outside the 18 yard box over and over again.
To be fair to their wingers, what are the alternatives? They aren’t completing a high number of crosses into the box because they have no aerial threats. So, basically all the crosses they actually complete are cutbacks or fizzing balls across the face of goals, which are much harder to complete because they are easier to get blocked than crosses in the air.
Everton under Moyes has been outstanding at defending in a compact 4-4-2 and have really improved as the season has gone along at defending crosses. Under Dyche, they were near the bottom in crosses completed into the penalty area, but under Moyes, they are in the top 10.
In the previous meeting against Chelsea only created 1.2 expected goals against Everton with only 20 touches in the penalty area.
Everton in Possession vs. Chelsea out of Possession
Everton were actually quite poor in possession and breaking against Manchester City. Some of that can be boiled down to Manchester City’s improvements in their rest defense and coincidentally defending in transition, but most of Everton’s chances came off of set pieces.
So, how good are Chelsea at defending set pieces? Not very good. As you can see below, the Blues are 17th in xG allowed per set piece.
Everton certainly have improved getting their squad fully healthy and Chelsea have considerable concerns with their own defending in transition at time, but it looks like that Romeo Lavia may play in this match.
He was on the bench against Fulham and the combination of him and Caicedo provide a much better physical presence in the middle of the pitch and also allows Enzo Fernandez to play a more advanced role.
As you can see, both of them rank very highly in the amount of tackles + interceptions per 90 minutes, so it’s going to be difficult for Everton in this match and they will have to attack Chelsea in the wide areas and try to create some chances via crosses.
Brighton vs. West Ham
Brighton in Possession vs. West Ham out of Possession
A good ol’ Graham Potter derby is a perfect way to spend your Saturday morning (or afternoon in the UK).
For Brighton, it’s an incredibly important match after the 2-1 loss to Brentford last weekend because they now sit in 10th place and are nine points off a Europa Conference League spot with only five matches left to play.
This is another instance of can they actually break down West Ham’s low defensive block.
Oftentimes Brighton will push five guys up to the last line of defense to create an overload against teams that play a back four and will send those direct balls more often than not out wide where they have the 2 v 1. However, against teams that play a back five like West Ham does under Potter that can be a little difficult.
West Ham under Potter have been much improved with their low block defending with the change to the back five. Since he took over on January 10th, West Ham are only allowing 1.37 npxG per 90 minutes. Compare that to what they were defending like under Lopetegui in their high block when they were allowing 2.03 npxG per 90 minutes, it’s a massive difference that will help West Ham avoid relegation.
They actually sat deep and completely held Brighton out in the previous meeting as well with the Seagulls creating only 0.9 expected goals off of 12 shots.
I think they will have similar struggles on Saturday as well.
West Ham in Possession vs. Brighton out of Possession
The chart I am going to show you below is very concerning if West Ham are ever going to be a team under Graham Potter than can control matches.
You allowed maybe one of the worst Premier League teams we will ever see in our lifetime to have almost a 60% field tilt……AT HOME??
Here is the problem with West Ham right now that I think they are trying to fix. In the match against Southampton, Potter switched them to a 4-2-3-1 and played Niclas Füllkrug as the main striker. Before, they were playing Bowen and Kudus as the front two in a 3-5-2, which meant that if they tried to play direct, they weren’t winning very many aerial duels or second balls.
Having a striker to play to really helps, but only if you actually win those second balls or duels. For West Ham, they are not doing that. The Hammers are in the bottom half of the Premier League in ground duel win rate and have one of the lowest second ball win rates.
image via The Athletic
So, if Brighton are going to press them high in a man to man fashion and West Ham is not going to win a high number of second balls when they have to play long balls over the press. How are they creating high quality chances in this match?
Newcastle vs. Ipswich Town
Newcastle in Possession vs. Ipswich Town out of Possession
Newcastle’s recent match against Crystal Palace gives us a good picture of how they are going to attack Ipswich who will likely come out in the same 5-3-2 as Crystal Palace did.
Newcastle’s answer to breaking Palace’s low block was simply finding players in space out wide, making aggressive passes to find them, and attack from out wide.
It worked because Palace was playing so compact and the overlapping runs from their fullbacks allowed them to create a 2 v 1 out wide and create chances from there.
Then Newcastle faced one of the best low block defending teams in the Premier League in Aston Villa and really struggled to play through them. However, after seeing how much trouble Manchester City had on Tuesday with Villa, you can almost give Newcastle a pass.
In the previous meeting, Newcastle absolutely hammered Ipswich by utilizing their wingers 1 v 1 against Ipswich’s fullbacks playing balls over the top of Ipswich’s high defensive line.
The situation for Ipswich is this, relegation is immanent unless they win their remaining five matches, West Ham lose all of theirs, and they make up a 20 goal differential.
The point is they have to go for a win from here on out, so that will allow Newcastle to play vertical football and take advantage of Ipswich playing a high defensive line because they are going to have to press Newcastle.
Ipswich in Possession vs. Newcastle out of Possession
There were a lot of times in the previous meeting where Ipswich was trying to build out of the back against Newcastle’s man to man press, but it went horribly wrong.
Take this example from when they were already down 2-0. Newcastle went straight man to man everywhere and the correct option for Muric is send it long and hope they win a 50-50 ball.
Instead he plays it Cajuste, who loses the ball and allows Isak to tap into the back of the net.
This is the problem that Ipswich has had this season. They cannot consistently build out of the back, are constantly turning it over, and then when they play it long, they cannot consistently win duels to actually give themselves a chance at creating chances.
That is why Kieran McKenna’s side is only averaging 0.87 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes this season. This matchup against Newcastle is as bad as it gets for the Tractor Boys and unfortunately their relegation is going to be confirmed on Saturday.
Bournemouth vs. Manchester United
Bournemouth in Possession vs. Manchester United out of Possession
Kind of surreal that the state of the Premier League is that this match is vitally important to Bournemouth to stay alive in the race for European football and it means absolutely nothing to Manchester United.
Ruben Amorim has already said that United would be prioritizing the Europa League and rotating their squad for these final Premier League matches.
The question in this match is how aggressive is Manchester United is with their press? Because if they decide to press high, that is going to leave their back line in 1 v 1 situations, which is not good because Bournemouth loves to play direct.
If Manchester United decides to sit back in their 5-4-1, Bournemouth may find some difficulties breaking them down. Bournemouth is the number one crossing teams in the Premier League now, but Manchester United has been top five at defending them under Amorim.
What this more than likely will come down to is set pieces. We all know United’s struggles with them this season, while Bournemouth has created the fifth most expected goals off of set pieces.
Manchester United in Possession vs. Bournemouth out of Possession
This is as bad as it gets for Manchester United with how horrible their build up has been under Amorim.
The 3-4-3 with the midfielders they have simply does not fit. They’ve been consistently turning the ball over trying to play out of the back and it’s yielded very little positive results. But, Amorim is going to stick with his style of play, which is doing way more harm than good.
Also, Erik Ten Hag may deserve a little less blame for making United a transition team because the alternative is clearly quite bad.
I am a big fan of Football Meta and I am glad someone finally did a video addressing the elephant in the room.
In modern day football, everyone has accepted that building out of the back is the only way to play, which is not true. In fact, teams like Arsenal and Liverpool have adopted a more direct approach than a lot of teams in the Premier League and have seen a lot of success with it.
Playing out of the back is not the only way to play and for teams like Manchester United and Tottenham it’s doing way more harm than good because teams like Bournemouth will press high in a man to man fashion and make it really difficult to play through.
As you can see below, Manchester United is 18th in the danger zone losses. It’s also not a coincidence that since Amorim has taken over that they are 12th in non-penalty xG averaging only 1.24 per 90 minutes.
Bournemouth forced 32 danger zone losses in the previous and I wouldn’t be surprised if they force more on Sunday.
Liverpool vs. Tottenham
Liverpool in Possession vs. Tottenham out of Possession
Liverpool’s title is immanent with only a point needed to crowned Premier League champions.
This will be the fourth meeting between these two and the results have been, well crazy.
Liverpool destroyed Tottenham in the league 6-3 and created an absurd amount of expected goals.
image via FotMob
How did they do it? They used Tottenham’s press against them. Ange keeps saying they only know how to play one way and that way allowed Liverpool to play direct, win 1 v 1 matchups on the back line and consistently rip Tottenham apart.
Look at this example. As you can see Tottenham is going man to man, which forces Alisson to go long. He finds Szoboszlai and Salah eventually ends up scoring.
This happened time and time again for Tottenham, so in the first leg of the EFL Cup semifinals, Ange decided to sit back and play a 4-4-2 low block, which actually did a really good job of limiting Liverpool.
Of course all of these matches were happening when Tottenham was going through their injury crisis, but are Spurs really going to play a full strength lineup? All their eggs are in the Europa League basket, so I highly doubt whatever approach they come with is going to be successful at limiting Liverpool.
Tottenham in Possession vs. Liverpool out of Possession
The decision making that Tottenham makes in build up is so bizzare at times. Nottingham Forest sat back against them on Monday, but in the match before that against Wolves (who is not a good pressing team) Spurs had 32 danger zone losses with six of them leading to a shot.
image via markstats.club
Liverpool pressed out of their usual 4-2-4, which made it very difficult for Tottenham to do their usual build up patterns of creating a three man combination out wide. They will often build up with the center backs split wide, fullbacks high with a midfield double pivot. The goal is to play through the wide areas and play a pass back centrally to one of the double pivot midfielders to progress the ball through the center.
What happens more often than not though is Spurs will get stuck in the corner against a man to man press and will either send it long to nobody or turn it over and give their opponent an easy transition opportunity.
In the three meetings with Liverpool, Tottenham committed 32, 34, and 44 danger zone losses. Of those 110 danger zone losses, 12 of them directly led to a shot.
Per Opta, Liverpool is second in the Premier League in the percentage of high turnovers that lead to a shot and tied for first with nine goals directly off of high turnovers.
I am expecting a lot of mistakes in build up again for Tottenham on Sunday.