Premier League Matchweek 23 Preview

Breaking down all 10 Premier League matches

Arsenal had an opportunity to further themselves from Manchester City, but came up short against Nottingham Forest despite creating a boatload of chances.

Michael Carrick delivered a dominant performance in the Manchester Derby, which is starting to give United fans some hopes at Champions League football.

This weekend Carrick gets put to the test again, as Manchester United head on the road to take on league leaders Arsenal.

Elsewhere there are some very interesting matches like Bournemouth hosting Liverpool and Aston Villa traveling to take on Newcastle.

Before we dive into everything there is something I need to address. I am sure a lot of you saw the news this week, but fbref.com has lost their contract with Opta to provide free advanced data.

While there are plenty of other sites that still provide data, fbref was the gold standard in terms of ease of use and depth of data.

For those who love the matrices I provide, 80% of the data came from fbref so I cannot replicate those with other sites.

It’s a sad day in the individual football analysis community, but I will do my best to continue top provide all of you with the best previews possible.

I’d also like to apologize for getting this preview out a little late this week, so I’ve made it free for everyone.

Let’s dive into Matchweek 23.

West Ham vs. Sunderland

West Ham in Possession vs. Sunderland out of Possession

Could we have picked a better match to stick in the lunch time kick off on Saturday?

West Ham notched a massive win at Tottenham last weekend and created 2.7 expected goals, which is their second highest total of the season.

The question though is what happens when they are not able to play in transition? If Sunderland decides to sit in a low defensive block that is going to hinder West Ham.

That is exactly what happened in the previous meeting when Graham Potter was in charge.

They tried to create this box midfield to play through the middle, but way too often the ball got funneled wide and they were too focused on crosses into the box, which did not work.

Sunderland certainly hasn’t been great defending crosses this season, but they also are way overdue for some negative regression because they are the biggest over performers defensively in the Premier League this season.

image via Opta the Analyst

It’s really difficult to catch Sunderland out of position defensively, but that is what West Ham will have to do if they want to create much of anything in this match because they are not breaking down Sunderland’s low block.

Sunderland in Possession vs. West Ham out of Possession

Sunderland has shown the ability to build out of the back and play through teams, but in this match they will likely have to create most of their chances through the wide areas.

A good example of how they use the wide areas came from their first goal against Crystal Palace this past weekend.

Xhaka was able to free Mukiele in behind for a free cross into the box to Le Fee who slotted it home.

Sunderland though is still relying mainly on transitions and set pieces to create most of their chances.

The Black Cats have created the third fewest expected goals and their xG per shot of 0.08 is the lowest of any team in the Premier League.

In the previous meeting against West Ham, they did score three goals, but it came from only 0.7 expected goals.

The Hammers started out the season horribly defending set pieces, but have improved as the season has gone along allowing only four goals in their previous 15 matches.

This match is likely going to be a snoozer, so if you are in the United States, you can sleep in on Saturday morning.

Burnley vs. Tottenham

Burnley in Possession vs. Tottenham out of Possession

Another match that probably isn’t worth watching on Saturday.

Burnley secured a 1-1 draw with Liverpool on Saturday at Anfield, but to say they did not deserve it was an understatement.

image via FotMob

The way they scored their lone goal was interesting because as you know Burnley has primarily been relying on transitions and set pieces to create most of their chances.

In fact, 40.7% of their shots this season have come from set pieces.

They finally got the ball into Liverpool’s final third and Marcus Edwards made a run into the half space freely because Gravenberch didn’t follow him all the way over and Konate was trying to maintain his position on the back line.

In the previous meeting, Burnley did take 14 shots against Tottenham, but only created 0.94 expected goals with most of their shots coming from outside the box.

Tottenham was quite bad over the weekend against West Ham conceding 2.7 expected goals, so maybe Burnley could create some chances in this match.

Tottenham in Possession vs. Burnley out of Possession

Tottenham were fortunate to go up a man early against Dortmund in the Champions League on Tuesday and put in a pretty dominant performance.

The question though is can they actually breakdown Burnley’s low block? They did that in the opening match of the season, but most of that came from crosses into the box.

Burnley does allow the highest cross completion rate of anybody in the Premier League, so that is basically where most of Tottenham’s chances are going to come from.

Burnley also really struggles defending set pieces. They are allowing the second highest xG per set piece, despite only conceding seven goals from them.

Like I mentioned in my Champions League preview, there was more of an emphasis of playing through the middle against West Ham, but that didn’t really work and I don’t think they are going to have much success trying to play through the middle of Burnley’s low block.

Fulham vs. Brighton

Fulham in Possession vs. Brighton out of Possession

Really interesting match here to see how effective Fulham is building out of the back against the most aggressive pressing team in the Premier League.

Marco Silva’s side is still turning it over at a fairly high rate in their own end of the pitch, which has translated to a lot of their issues offensively.

image via markstats.club

It was the first match of the season, but Fulham didn’t do much offensively against Brighton. They scored a late equalizer from a corner and only created 0.61 xG from open play.

The one way to beat Brighton is with transitions and I am not sure Fulham is capable of doing that.

The Seagulls may have forced the second most high turnovers and have the PPDA in the Premier League, but they have also allowed the most fastbreak shots.

Fulham has the third fewest direct attacks in the Premier League, so I think they are going to struggle on Saturday.

Brighton in Possession vs. Fulham out of Possession

These are the types of matches that Brighton really struggles in.

Fabian Hurzeler has made them into a team that can build out of the back and overload the opposition, but dropping his forwards in deep to play through the opposition.

Where they really struggle is against low block defending teams, which is exactly what Fulham is.

The Cottagers have the fewest amount of high turnovers, but it does not really matter because they are only allowing 1.29 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes.

They play a very compact 4-4-2 that not many teams have found success against and the one thing they do really well is defend crosses.

Fulham is allowing the second fewest crosses into their penalty area, which is always encouraging when you are also able to deny space through the middle.

What Brighton is going to have to do in this match is catch Fulham when they are out of position because if they are able to sit in their low block, it’s going to come down to how effective Brighton’s wingers are winning 1 v 1 matchups against the Fulham’s fullbacks.

In the previous meeting Brighton created 0.57 xG from open play, so it may be another struggle for them.

Manchester City vs. Wolves

Manchester City in Possession vs. Wolves out of Possession

Manchester City are coming off two straight losses where Pep, in my opinion, has gotten his tactics all wrong.

Against Manchester United, he tried to overload the middle and then isolate Doku and Semenyo 1 v 1 out wide, but neither of them had a good game, so Manchester City was stuck in the final third simply circulating the ball around the defensive block.

Then against Bodo/Glimt on Tuesday, Pep started Foden and Cherki as the “wingers”, but had them play more in the half spaces to again play through the middle with the fullbacks now being the ones to provide width.

That did not work either because Bodo/Glimt came out in the same 4-4-2 that Manchester United did and denied Manchester City from playing through the middle and again, they had no answer.

There is one thing I want to point out about Pep’s team this year: they are not good playing from behind.

They haven’t spent much time in that game state, but when they have, they clearly are much worse off when teams sit in really low compact defensive blocks.

image via understat.com

Wolves has been improving defensively under Rob Edwards and just held Newcastle to 0.31 xG from open play on Sunday. So, don’t be surprised if Manchester City struggles again.

Wolves in Possession vs. Manchester City out of Possession

What have been the problem with Manchester City the last few matches? The same one that has existed for the past almost two years: transition defense.

Bodo/Glimt didn’t even try to play out of the back and went long from every goalkick and it worked because Manchester City right is weak on the back line and aren’t winning very many duels.

Here is one of the many examples of how Bodo/Glimt exposed them on Tuesday.

Ball goes long, 3 v 3 versus the back line, easily flick on a header and they are in on goal.

I know Wolves haven’t been creating much lately and they are too reliant on crosses, but Manchester City will let them have the ball in wide areas and as long as they are able to win duels the same way Bodo/Glimt did, who says they can’t score against City?

Bournemouth vs. Liverpool

Bournemouth in Possession vs. Liverpool out of Possession

Boy this is going to be a fun match.

Bournemouth has hit a really bad run of form, but their underlying numbers are still quite good.

Since the beginning of November, Bournemouth have only won one match and picked up nine points in that time frame. However, they have 20.3 expected points during that time frame, which is eighth best in the Premier League.

image via understat.com

This is the type of match that suits them really well because Liverpool are terrible defending in transition. They have the worst final third to box entry conversion rate in the Premier League and despite their uptick in form defensively, a team like Bournemouth can open them up pretty easily.

Bournemouth has been facing quite a few teams lately that will sit back against them, so it’s no surprise that they created well over three expected goals against both Chelsea and Newcastle because they mainly got to play though matches in transition.

Their second goal against Newcastle in the FA Cup is a perfect example of how quickly they can hit you.

One long ball over the top to Brooks after a corner and Bournemouth were on the break and ended up scoring from outside the box.

They hit Liverpool twice on the counter in the very first match of the season and even though Liverpool’s defense has improved slightly, I think you’ll see Bournemouth have quite a few chances on the counter.

Liverpool in Possession vs. Bournemouth out of Possession

Liverpool’s build up against Bournemouth’s press is going to be interesting.

Against Marseille, Liverpool switched to a 3-3-4 build up, which can be very hard to press, especially when they use Alisson as the extra man.

Bournemouth will have to then commit a lot of bodies initially to take away any passes centrally and force the ball out wide. The 3-3-4 also makes it a little easier for Liverpool to play through the middle and Wirtz can easily drop into the half spaces, making it even more difficult for Bournemouth to press them.

A lot of teams have gone long against Bournemouth lately, but their defensive numbers are still really good.

You can see above that Bournemouth has allowed 30 goals in their last 13 matches, but those 30 goals have come from only 20.5 non-penalty expected goals.

The reason is not only have teams been finishing at a high rate against them, but Đorđe Petrović has one of the worst post shot xG +/-’s in the Premier League.

We will see how often Liverpool tries to play out of the back, but they may have a lot of success simply playing long and trying to win duels against Bournemouth’s back line.

Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest

Brentford in Possession vs. Nottingham Forest out of Possession

This match really comes down to how often the Bees can break out in transition.

Sean Dyche’s team will be very wary off pressing high and getting his defensive block out of position because of how deadly Brentford is on the break.

This match will be very interesting to see who holds more possession because I believe both teams would be really happy having less of it, sitting in their defensive blocks, and looking to play on the counter.

Brentford recently played two teams very similar to Nottingham Forest in Everton and Sunderland. In those matches they scored seven goals and created 7.2 expected goals.

If you breakdown how they scored their goals, three came from fast breaks, two from set pieces, and two from normal open play.

When I say catch Nottingham Forest out of position this is what I mean.

Here against Sunderland they won the ball in their own final third, Janelt took two dribbling and immediately played it in behind to Thiago who is easily 1 v 1 against the goalkeeper.

Brentford leads the Premier League with 33 shots and nine goals directly from fast breaks.

That will be the difference in this match because Nottingham Forest is a very good set piece defending team ever since Dyche took over.

Nottingham Forest in Possession vs. Brentford out of Possession

I have a feeling Forest is going to be controlling a majority of the possession in this match and are going to have to breakdown Brentford’s 5-3-2.

They really have not been good under Dyche when they hold more than 50% of the ball and their recent match against Everton is a good example.

They ended up creating 1.55 expected goals, but they held 69% of the ball and most of their chances came via crosses.

image via FotMob

In fact, no team in the Premier League has attempted more crosses than Nottingham Forest this season.

Brentford is near the bottom of the Premier League in cross completion percentage allowed, so this match is really going to come down to the wide areas.

The Bees are not great defending 1 v 1 out wide and Forest has a lot of really good dribblers on the wings, so I would not be surprised if they make the difference in this match.

Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea

Crystal Palace in Possession vs. Chelsea out of Possession

Boy have things gone from bad to worse for Crystal Palace.

First, they get knocked out of the FA Cup by Macclesfield, then Glasner torches the Palace hierarchy in the media, then their captain Marc Guehi leaves for Manchester City.

Not only that, but now it seems Mateta is also on his way out the door, as there is a mass exodus happening at Selhurst Park.

Some positive news though for this match is it looks like Palace will get Daniel Munoz back from injury, which is a massive boost, especially for this match.

Not only that, but Ismaila Sarr will also be returning after winning the Africa Cup of Nations with Senegal.

That means Palace will actually have a big presence down the right hand side when they hit Chelsea in transition.

Can we talk about how lucky Chelsea was to beat Brentford last weekend?

Rosenior’s tactics tried to give the Bees a ton of possession because he didn’t want to get hit on the break and what ended up happening is Chelsea got outshot 15 to 6 and half of their xG came from a penalty.

image via FotMob

Brentford also created 0.72 of their xG from set pieces, which Chelsea also have been struggling to defend allowing the highest xG per set piece in the Premier League.

Even though Palace are going through it right now, this is one of the best matchups for them with all of Chelsea’s issues defending both set pieces and transitions.

Chelsea in Possession vs. Crystal Palace out of Possession

If you though Chelsea had issues breaking down Brentford’s 5-3-2, what makes you think they are going to do any better against Crystal Palace.

Palace plays one of the most compact defensive blocks you’ll ever see and the only time they are going to press Chelsea is from goalkicks.

This here is the problem starting Joao Pedro when you face a low block. Marc Cucurella has to push up and invert into the left half space and what you are basically asking Garnacho to do here is “Beat your man so you can cross it to nobody”.

You absolutely have to start Liam Delap when you face low blocks, period, end of story. You cannot keep doing the same thing and hoping your wingers will create something from out wide or Cole Palmer will score from outside the box.

This is basic stuff that Liam Rosenior has to figure out because Chelsea are still quite bad if they can’t catch teams out of position from their low blocks.

All Palace has to do is sit and they will be just fine in this match.

Newcastle vs. Aston Villa

Newcastle in Possession vs. Aston Villa out of Possession

Newcastle played really well against PSV on Wednesday and their high press was working really well, which is a great sign for their match on Sunday against Aston Villa.

The first goal they scored was a classic Eddie Howe goal. They win the ball centrally, make one quick pass and Joelinton taps it to Wissa for an easy 1-0.

These are the exact types of things they can do to Aston Villa because there have been so many times this season where Unai Emery’s team have turned it over in their own end of the pitch where it’s easily led to goals.

Not only is Newcastle going to need to take advantage of these types of high turnover situations, but they will also need to be aggressive against Aston Villa’s back line.

There have been many instances this season where Eddie Howe has been a little too conservative and valued control for Newcastle.

The best thing they can do in this match is be as aggressive as possible playing balls in behind Aston Villa’s high line.

They really struggled against a Wolves low block in their previous Premier League match, but this is a much different type of opponent.

Aston Villa in Possession vs. Newcastle out of Possession

Aston Villa’s negative regression is starting to hit.

They lost to Everton in their last Premier League match and even though they created 1.44 expected goals, that was off 18 shots with a lot of them coming from outside the box.

There are obvious concerns coming into this match about their build up against Newcastle’s press. Per markstats.club, Aston Villa is losing the ball in dangerous areas 24.6 times per 90 minutes, which is the fourth highest rate in the Premier League.

What I think will be even more interesting in this match is how effective Aston Villa is in the final third against Newcastle’s 4-5-1.

The whole goal of Eddie Howe’s 4-5-1 is to add an extra defender centrally to deny any passes going through the middle.

We know how much of an emphasis Unai Emery puts on playing through the middle, which can sometimes be his downfall.

There will probably be a lot of situations like this where Villa will be having a lot of their attackers roaming inbetween the lines trying to receive the ball.

With that being said, it’s more than likely going to be a really big struggle for Aston Villa on the road trying to create chances against one of the best defensive teams in the Premier League.

Arsenal vs. Manchester United

Arsenal in Possession vs. Manchester United out of Possession

The Gunners were amazing against Inter on Tuesday in the Champions League and this is going to be a very interesting matchup.

Michael Carrick put in a tactical masterclass against Pep Guardiola in the Manchester Derby by simply switching Manchester United to a 4-4-2, bringing on Kobbie Mainoo as a second defensive midfielder, and allowing Bruno Fernandes to play his natural number 10 role.

What United did is play very compact, denied any space through the middle and dared both Doku and Semenyo to beat them from out wide and they could not do it.

That is likely what they are going to do here against Arsenal because pressing the Gunners build up has not worked out for anybody this season.

This is probably going to be a match that Arsenal is going to go back to what they did last season, shading Martin Ødegaard over to the right side of the pitch to combine with Saka and create 3 v 3 or 4 v 4 situations to try and play through United in the wide areas.

The problem with doing that is Manchester United’s fullbacks are really good defending 1 v 1, so from open play, it’s more than likely going to be struggle for Arsenal.

But of course there are always set pieces to change the match. Manchester United conceded from a corner against Arsenal in the previous match and are 15th in xG per set piece allowed.

Manchester United in Possession vs. Arsenal out of Possession

One thing that Arsenal will have to make sure of in this match is that their press is sharp.

Manchester United is turning it over in dangerous areas at the second highest rate in the Premier League, but here is an example of how quickly they can hit you if the press is not on point.

Here against Manchester City, Dorgu drops deep pulling Rico Lewis with him, but nobody is even close to Casemiro who is able to play it easily to Bruno Ferandes, who then finds Dalot and Diallo streaking down the right hand side for a 2 v 1 against Nathan Ake.

Arsenal’s press against Nottingham Forest really wasn’t that great if we are all being honest and they will have to win a majority of duels when Manchester United goes long.

They also have to take away Bruno Fernandes in this match. He is going to be roaming trying to find space and I would not be surprised to see Saliba or another defender following him into uncomfortable areas, which will create space in behind for United’s forward, especially in the wide areas.

Everton vs. Leeds

Everton in Possession vs. Leeds out of Possession

Everton has been pretty fortunate lately to win some the matches that they have.

They have been doing it by primarily playing direct because they last time the Toffees held over 50% of the ball was in a 2-0 win against Fulham on November 8th. Since that win against Fulham, Everton has picked up 20 points in 12 matches, but has a -3.7 expected goal differential and are also only averaging 1.15 non-penalty expected goals.

They are relying far too often on the entire offense running through Jack Grealish and haven’t really been able to hit teams consistently on the counter.

In this match, I would imagine Leeds is going to try and press them high in a man to man fashion, which means it’s going to come down to how effective Everton is at winning duels and second balls.

Aerial duels are something Everton really excels at, as they have the fourth highest aerial duel win percentage in the Premier League this season.

The Toffees are probably going to put a pretty big emphasis on set pieces in this match as well.

image via Opta the Analyst

As you can see, they have the third highest percentage of their xG coming from set pieces, while Leeds is 14th in the Premier League in xG per set piece allowed.

Leeds in Possession vs. Everton out of Possession

Everton doesn’t really press high and will more than likely sit in their low block that has had mixed results this season.

Over the course of their last 12 matches, they have only allowed 12 goals, but have been very fortunate because they’ve conceded almost 19 expected goals over that time frame.

They typically defend in their 4-2-3-1 formation, staying very narrow and compact to deny any space through the middle of the pitch, which did work against Aston Villa over the weekend.

Leeds primarily tries to build through the wide areas and will overload Everton there as well to try and create chances via crosses.

They have been far too reliant on set pieces and this is a match where they are going to be holding a majority of the possession and tilting the field on the Toffees.

Everton has only allowed five goals from set pieces and also is allowing one of the lowest xG per set pieces in the Premier League.

I have a feeling Leeds is probably going to struggle in this match offensively.