Premier League Matchweek 21 Preview

Previewing all 10 Premier League matches

The festive fixtures continue with another jam packed midweek slate.

Arsenal extended their lead at the top of the table to six points after Manchester City conceded a goal in stoppage time to Chelsea. Aston Villa won yet again and are now tied with Manchester City in second place.

Elsewhere, Fulham and Liverpool exchanged late goals in a 2-2 draw, Newcastle beat Crystal Palace 2-0, and Manchester United drew with Leeds 1-1.

We had some big news drop on Monday, as Ruben Amorim being sacked by Manchester United.

image via Fabrizio Romano on X

Darren Fletcher will take over on an interim basis until they find the next permanent manager.

This week there is one headliner. On Thursday, league leaders Arsenal host Liverpool in what should be one of the best matches of the season.

It should be a fun slate before the FA Cup this weekend, so let’s dive into Matchweek 21.

West Ham vs. Nottingham Forest

West Ham in Possession vs. Nottingham Forest out of Possession

Why not put a Nuno Espírito Santo derby as the lone match on Tuesday?

In reality, this match is really important for relegation. It’s pretty clear at this point that both Burnley and Wolves are going to be relegated, so a win here for West Ham would bring them within one point of safety.

Actually getting three points is another thing because boy does this offense suck. Against Wolves this weekend, West Ham took six shots and created 0.3 expected goals.

image via fbref.com

This really isn’t a good matchup for them because of how physical of a team Nottingham Forest is. Nuno knows that Dyche’s press will cause them problems if they try to build out of the back, so they will have to play it long and hope they can win duels and second balls.

Really the best way for them to create chances in this match will be on the counter, similar to how Everton beat Nottingham Forest last week.

Nottingham Forest in Possession vs. West Ham out of Possession

This is the main problem for Nottingham Forest right now. From a technical stand point they have all the necessary pieces to become a team that can control matches and build out of the back.

The problem with them is what happens when teams simply decide to sit back in a low block? I am not sure people have talked enough about the loss of Chris Wood to this team.

Nobody scored more goals via headers in the Premier League last year and the New Zealand native was one of the best target men in world football.

What that means is when Nottingham Forest is in the final third they have so many talented ball carriers and passers, but not an elite finisher in front of net, which is exactly what Chris Wood is.

Take a look at their underlying numbers under Dyche when they hold 50% or more of the ball.

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Nobody in the Premier League has attempted more crosses than Nottingham Forest, so it’s pretty clear that is their main plan of attack when facing low blocks.

That is really what this match is going to come down to. West Ham is coming off a match against Wolves connected on three crosses into the penalty area and overall for the season is allowing one of the higher amounts of crosses in the box.

Bournemouth vs. Tottenham

Bournemouth in Possession vs. Tottenham out of Possession

If I am being honest, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that Bournemouth controls a majority of the ball.

I mean for goodness sakes, Sunderland controlled more than 50% of the ball against Tottenham when they playing at home and with a lead for a majority of the match.

The problem for Tottenham is I think that this their best tactical plan right now because pressing Bournemouth and allowing them to go 1 v 1 is not going to turn out well.

The Cherries are one of the more direct teams in the Premier League and teams have been able to slow them down by simply not allowing them to break in transition.

When they do get in the final third it’s pretty much always down the left hand side of the pitch with Truffert overlapping with Semenyo to send a cross into the box.

You want to hear something crazy? The Cherries haven’t won a match since they beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 on October 26th.

They’ve not been bad, just extremely unlucky because during this 11 match winless run, they’ve actually accumulated the seventh most expected points.

image via understat.com

Tottenham in Possession vs. Bournemouth out of Possession

This is the worst possible matchup that Tottenham ever could have asked for. In the previous meeting, Bournemouth completely dominated them with their high press holding Tottenham to five total shots and 0.19 xG (Tottenham didn’t attempt a shot until the 55th minute).

image via FotMob

This is basically what Bournemouth made Tottenham do the entire match. They would force the ball to one of the centerbacks, jump into their man to man press, and the only two places that Tottenham has to play it is a long risky pass forward or out wide the fullback to get trapped.

That is why Bournemouth forced six high turnovers and had a PPDA of 7.6.

Tottenham is coming off a match against Sunderland where they turned over in dangerous areas 30 times to one of the worst pressing teams in the league.

Since the beginning of November, Tottenham has only created 10.7 expected goals in 11 matches. Only Sunderland and Wolves have created fewer.

Unless they win a bunch of duels and second balls by playing the ball long I do not see how they don’t get completely dominated in this match because they cannot play through Bournemouth’s press.