Premier League Matchweek 17 Preview

Breaking down all 10 Premier League matches

Arsenal maintains their two point lead at the top of the table after Matchweek 16.

The Africa Cup of Nations begins as some of the Premier League stars have descended upon Morocco for the next month.

The title race and race for Champions League football is really starting to heat up now that we’ve reach the festive portion of the calendar.

This weekend there a couple of important matches headlined by Newcastle vs. Chelsea and Tottenham vs. Liverpool.

It should be a fun weekend of action so let’s dive into Matchweek 17.

Newcastle vs. Chelsea

Newcastle in Possession vs. Chelsea out of Possession

Newcastle really really struggled against Sunderland to create any chances because the core of their issues offensively come down to breaking down low blocks.

In fact, Sunderland vs. Newcastle was the lowest xG total ever recorded.

image via The xG Philosophy on X

Newcastle rebounded on Wednesday in the EFL Cup beating Fulham 2-1 and created 1.54 expected goals.

image via FotMob

This is actually a pretty good matchup for them given Chelsea’s struggles defending in transition. The Blues have been kind of getting exposed lately conceding 6.5 expected goals over the course of their last four matches.

They were much better against Everton holding them to one expected goal, but Everton isn’t that deadly of a transition team like Newcastle is.

The other problem for Chelsea is they are terrible at defending set pieces and Newcastle is one of the best in the Premier League.

So, this is a great matchup for Newcastle and I would expect them to create quite a few high quality chances.

Chelsea in Possession vs. Newcastle out of Possession

Things have changed now for Chelsea now that Cole Palmer is back in the lineup.

He provides so much for them that the combination of Enzo Fernandez and others simply cannot. In addition it allows Chelsea more creative players on the last line of defense that can drop in or make runs in behind.

You can see from the first goal against Everton exactly what Palmer provides.

Chelsea are building up in a 3-2-5 with Gusto and Reece James as the double pivot pushing Fernandez up to the last line of defense as well.

This has been a problem for Chelsea for a while against low blocks. If teams are going to push up their last line of defense and you are constantly going to be dropping forwards in deep, you must have someone that poses a threat of making a run in behind.

Palmer does that here and puts Chelsea up 1-0.

Newcastle plays a low block a little bit differently because they allow a lot of space in between the lines usually in fear of guys making these types of runs in behind.

It’s why Manchester City were able to easily receive the ball in these spaces, but kind of struggled to create chances when they lost 2-1 at St. James Park.

The other question in this match is how effective is Chelsea building out of the back.

As you can see, Chelsea is 14th in danger zone losses, while Newcastle has forced the most. The Magpies will be selective with their pressing and will rely on certain triggers, but really could cause Chelsea some problems.