Premier League Data & Tactical Preview for Matchweek 33

Brentford vs. Brighton

Brentford in Possession vs. Brighton out of Possession

This match ended 0-0 in the previous meeting, but Brighton’s press was very poor and Brentford kept finding success building through the wide areas.

What they typically did was drop a forward into the half space and have him play a bounce pass to the fullback who would consistently beat the opposing fullback who pushed up to aid in the press and were able to get in behind numerous times.

As you can see from Brentford’s pass map from the match, they were really trying to build down the right flank.

image via Opta the Analyst

Getting in behind in build and also in transition is going to be a massive key for Brentford in this match.

The reason for two fold. First, Brentford is a team that puts a big emphasis on crosses. They are top four in crosses completed into the penalty area primarily via cutbacks because they don’t really have any aerial threats, unless it’s a set piece. Brighton is the number one team in the Premier League at defending crosses and also are above average at defending set pieces.

Second, Brighton’s transition defense is bad. They have allowed a Premier League high nine fast break goals and are 15th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed.

Brighton in Possession vs. Brentford out of Possession

I want to talk quickly about why Fabian Hurzler believes in his long ball approach so much.

The reason is not just because you can isolate forwards in 1 v 1 situations, but it causes the opposition to defend in transition, which is much more difficult that sitting in a position.

Let’s take an example from Brighton’s previous meeting against Brentford.

Here Mitoma is the only one on Brentford’s last line, but the ball gets played to him in space and he’s able to hold it up for a few seconds to allow the rest of Brighton’s attackers to crash the box.

Enciso doesn’t get picked up and eventually has a free header right above the six yard box.

I mention this situation because it’s the exact type of scenario where Brighton are going to create their most dangerous chances.

Brentford when they decide to press high can get easily exposed over the top and also are one of the worst teams at defending crosses.

Also, nobody has created more expected goals than Brighton since February 14th.

image via understat.com

Crystal Palace vs. Bournemouth

Crystal Palace in Possession vs. Bournemouth out of Possession

This is an interesting match to say the least.

The biggest question is how effective is Bournemouth with their press. The answer is probably pretty effective. As you can see below, nobody has turned the ball over in the danger zone more than Crystal Palace since November 24th.

image via markstats on X

Most of the problems are the fact that Glasner wants his team to build through the middle of the pitch, which can be incredibly difficult in the Premier League.

Take their recent match against Manchester City as an example. Crystal Palace had 37 danger zone losses and look at where most of them occurred, right in the middle of the pitch.

image via markstats.club

I’ll be honest too, Crystal Palace has some of the weirdest offensive metrics that I’ve seen in the Premier League this season.

If they can break Bournemouth’s pressure, which is going to try to force them to play out wide, they can expose the Cherries in transition, but not succumbing to that pressure is going to be it’s own battle.

Bournemouth in Possession vs. Crystal Palace out of Possession

Crystal Palace played their usual 5-3-2 against both Manchester City and Newcastle, but conceded a combined 10 goals, which is not like them.

To be fair, those 10 goals came off of only 4.2 expected, but the biggest takeaway from their last two matches is their box defending has been quite bad.

There are quite simply too many loose balls or mistakes being made defending crosses in the 18 yard box from Oliver Glasner’s side right now.

Here is an example from their match against Newcastle on Wednesday. They have two guys covering Isak when a cross comes into the box, but he’s still able to get a head on it and barely puts it over the bar.

I guess this would be the right time to mention that Crystal Palace is dead last in the Premier League at winning aerial duels.

image via fbref.com

This is not a great matchup against Bournemouth with the way they are able to send in crosses to the box.

On top of that, Palace’s transition defense is going to have to be on point when they lose the ball in their own end of the pitch because I have a feeling that is going to happen a lot.