Manchester United is such a poorly run club

I decided to take time out my day of doing World Cup simulations to write this because, it’s truly bothering me the discourse around Manchester United right now.

Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbuemo are on their way to Old Trafford and everyone freaking out. This is not an article bashing those two players because they are very, very good footballers. This is more of an over arching article on just how bad Manchester United’s recruitment strategy has been.

This is not even an article saying these are “bad” transfers and to be honest in this PSR environment that is suppose to limit what teams can spend in a five year period (by the way are we ever going to get a verdict on Manchester City’s 115 charges? or is the Premier League hoping we all simply forgot that they committed fraud for nine straight years, allegedly) I guess if you can spend whatever you want then there is no point to me even writing this because it doesn’t even matter. Bruno Fernandes has decided to stay and not leave for Al Hilal, which is probably the best possible thing for United right now, but it now leaves them in a continuous death spiral financially that seemingly can’t get out of.

That death spiral is Manchester United systematically keeps trying to buy “better” players year after year that do the exact same things and at the same level. The other problem is the players they do buy almost never increase or live up to the transfer fee paid for them. Look at this abomination of a list.

image via transfermarkt.com

Let’s run down the list of recent memory:

Casemiro & Ugarte

Manchester United spent 70 million pounds on an already old Casemiro for one good season because they needed an elite ball winning central midfielder, which did get them into the Champions League to their credit.

They wanted to become a possession dominant team under Ten Hag, but ignored prioritizing a midfielder that can help them achieve that. So, once Casemiro’s form dipped what did they do? They went and signed Manuel Ugarte, another really good ball winning, physical defensive midfielder. The one downside, he is also, not great on the ball.

You can see both of them rank really highly out of possession and even in terms of chance creation, but neither of them are press resistant or are elite at progressing the ball up the pitch, which is what Manchester United needs.

So, when they try to build out of the back in their 3-4-3 system they can consistently play through teams, which means things like this can happen.

image via markstats.club

What Manchester United need is someone who is press resistant, dictate tempo, and help them be able to build out of the back. A Joshua Kimmich, Frankie De Jong, Vitinha, Declan Rice, etc type of player. Someone who can play the deep lying role and help them build out because right now, they simply cannot play through any decent man to man pressing team.

Later on in this article I’ll give them a couple of options of players I think they should buy, but let’s continue down this graveyard of bad decisions.

Joshua Zirkzee

Manchester United dropped 36.5 million pounds on Joshua Zirkzee to be their deep lying player maker because that is not the type of forward Hojlund is. Having someone who can connect the play so well would help them in building up from defense and take pressure off of the double pivot midfielders who aren’t great on the ball.

What Manchester United clearly needed was true number nine that finished at a high rate because it was clear even before this season that Rasmus Hojlund was not a finished product. Instead, they bought Zirkzee who had is own finishing problems at Bologna and are now stuck with two forwards who do different things, but neither can do the one thing Manchester United needs: scoring goals.

Antony

At the time, Manchester United was in need of a right winger, it was more the price that was completely baffling.

I am not act like he wasn’t one of the best players in the Eredivisie because he was at the time.

But transfermarkt.com, which has become a fairly reliable source for transfer market evaluation, had him rated at 35 million Euros, but Manchester United paid 95 million.

image via transfermarkt.com

It turned out to be a total disaster because he could never live up to the price tag paid for him, but if Manchester United would have only saw what they already had they wouldn’t have spent that kind of money.

Amad Diallo

Outside of Bruno Fernandes, Amad Diallo was Manchester United’s best player this season. He’s obviously versatile and can play as the inverted right winger in Amorim’s system or even as the right wingback.

He was amazing for Manchester United this season and here were his ranks (I am only including players that played at least seven 90s).

Instead of sticking with Diallo, which would be the right thing for Manchester United to do, not only because of how many times they’ve loaned him out, but he is flat out a better player for Ruben Amorim’s system than Bryan Mbeumo.

I love Mbeumo, he’s an amazing player, but he does not offer the versatility that is required in Amorim’s system the way that Diallo does.

Plus, from a statistical perspective, Diallo blows him out of the water.

Now I can already hear you from the back of the room saying, “Well Brentford have less of the ball than United!!” “It’s not a fair comparison!!” Brentford held 6% less of the ball than Manchester United this season and the Bees averaged more penalty box touches and slightly fewer final third touches.

image via fbref.com.

Also when you go on fbref and use their comparison tool these are the players that Diallo is closest to from a statistical perspective.

I am not going to sit here and say Bryan Mbeumo is a bad player because he’s not. But, Manchester United already have a better player internally to play his position. The best fit for Mbeumo in my opinion is Newcastle, but I guess the lure of Old Trafford and their leaky roofs is too good to pass up.

Rasmus Hojlund

Manchester United paid 72 million pounds for Hojlund after one decent season at Atalanta where he scored 10 goals and had a 0.45 npxG per 90 minute scoring rate. They needed to view him one for the future, but instead thrust him into the being their number nine right away when he clearly wasn’t ready.

It’s the same story as Antony too because Manchester United grossly overpaid for him.

image via transfermarkt.com

By definition he’s a transition striker. In Erik Ten Hag’s United that couldn’t control matches and would go end to end with anybody (and lose doing so) he was an okay fit.

However, in Ruben Amorim’s 3-4-3, he’s like a fish out of water because he’s not good at dropping deep, he’s terrible at winning duels, and doesn’t provide enough production in the box when United try to send in crosses.

There are talks of him being on his way out the door, Marcus Rashford wants to play for Barcelona, and we know Zirkzee does not have the finishing profile to lead the line.

So my question to Manchester United is this: If Cunha is playing on the left and Mbeumo is playing on the right who is going to play as the number nine? Because these are their options right now:

Matheus Cunha vs. Alejandro Garnacho

I want preface this by saying, if Garnacho leaves in the summer then this all makes sense, but if the plan is to keep him, is he really that much worse than Cunha? Both play the left inverted forward role, so here is the comparison.

I’ll get to Cunha’s insane xG overpeformance a little later, but Garnacho actually had a higher non-penalty xG per 90 minutes, higher amount of progressive carries, and progressive passes received. Of course, Cunha provides a lot more in terms of chance creation, but my question is for Manchester United’s attack should they be trying to buy an actual number nine to replace Hojlund like Viktor Gyökeres for example who is a goal scoring machine and has proven to be effective in Amorim’s system over trying to replace Garnacho with Cunha?

Ok, I’ll admit including this chart was mean and probably not even relevant, please forgive me.

Who Manchester United should be going after

Manchester United should have prioritized finding a game changing number six that can help them play Ruben Amorim’s system. Arsenal’s trajectory completely changed when they acquired Declan Rice from West Ham. Manchester City would not have reached the heights that they have without Rodri. Newcastle is contending at the top of the table in large part because of Bruno Guimarães. Liverpool went to the next level this season because of Ryan Gravenberch’s ability to play as a single pivot number six. Even Tottenham I think has found that type of player in Lucas Bergvall. Chelsea has gotten so much better because they have Enzo Fernandez.

All of these players have one thing in common. They are press resistant defensive midfielders that can dictate tempo, control matches, and allow each of their respective teams to build out consistently. Manchester United does not have that right now and are not even trying to go after one.

Éderson

If you want the combination of a ball winning running machine that is also press resistant for a reasonable price, Éderson is perfect. He’s played the number eight role a lot for Atalanta, but also can play the six role at a really high level.

Of course, the Saudi’s came calling, so this may be out of the realm of possibility.

image via Fabrizio Romano on X

He’s 25 years old his market value on transfermarkt is 50 million, which is a lot cheaper than others in his similar profile right now.

He played almost every available minute for Atalanta this season missing one match due to suspension.

image via transfermarkt.com

In fact, over the past two seasons, he has only missed two matches due to injury.

His statistical profile is mixture of Bruno Guimarães and Vitinha.

Adam Wharton

Adam Wharton is the truth and the next great England midfielder. He has everything, he can play both a six and an eight, can drop deep, he’s ball winning monster, incredible dribbler, and progressive passer, he is everything.

If I were Manchester United, I would have handed Crystal Palace the 80 million pounds they want for him the minute the transfer window opened.

His progressive passing is elite and exactly what Manchester United needs because right now they are totally and completely reliant on Bruno Fernandes to do all of it.

Of course, here I am contradicting myself because on transfermarkt his transfer value is only 45 million and Crystal Palace are asking for almost double that, as they should. But, he is the one of the very few players I think it’s worth it to overpay because in two years, his transfer value is going to rise close to 100 million.

It’s rare you can find a player that can play the number six role and provide this level of chance creation in the final third as well.

Flawed Logic

I know there are way more intelligent people in football and covering it than me. When I read How to Win the Premier League (I’m a reader now, not to brag), it confirmed what I already knew, I am a dummy compared to these people running football clubs.

However, that is not going to stop me from firing off takes on the internet. One thing I do know is you never ever buy a forward the season after they drastically overperform and are at the peak of their market value.

Liverpool did that with Darwin Nunez and how did that turn out (yes, I am going to pat myself on the back, it’s been a tough week just let me have this one.)

By the way can we take a second to appreciate how wrong that guy in the comments is about this one.

So, who were the biggest non-penalty xG over performers this season? DING DING DING you are correct!

image via fbref.com

This is running theme for Manchester United buying players at the peak of their market value and completely overpaying. Take a look at their last three transfer windows:

images via transfermarkt.com

No Manchester United fan can honestly blame the Glazers can they? They spend money like crazy. Yes, they have no idea how to run a football club, but at least they’re trying. United fans it’s all about perspective, you just took the best forwards from two teams right above you in the table, nowhere to go but up.

Conclusion

Again, I am not sitting here telling you that Cunha or Mbeumo are bad signings, it’s that they are being signed to positions that aren’t a desperate need for Manchester United.

United have painfully ignored finding their game changing number six that not only can give them incredible defensive work rate, but also help them become the build up team that can control matches for far too long.

I am not going to sit and act like I understand PSR rules anymore (frankly I think they only exist to simply punish Everton for stupid reasons), but Manchester United should be in trouble by now and probably shouldn’t be dropping over 100 million on two forwards who aren’t going to play the most important position they desperately need right now.

It’s been painfully obvious for years now that this club needs a good director of football that is proven to be successful in the modern era. The purchases they have made over the past three years have either been only to appease the manager

or they’ve been splash “big name” signings that will make the largest fanbase in world football excited. Not actually using data, video analysis, etc. the way intelligent clubs like Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, and Brentford do.

Will this work out for United? Depends what you mean by “work out” if your definition is challenging for a top half finish then maybe, if it’s to be playing European football: No. Well maybe Conference League.