How does Hugo Ekitike fit with Liverpool
It’s been a busy summer at Anfield as Liverpool are now preparing a massive bid to secure the services of Hugo Ekitike from Frankfurt.
With Darwin Nunez likely departing it means that Liverpool are currently without a center forward (although he did just score a hat trick against Stoke City behind closed doors this weekend). They need one and Ekitike is probably the best available prospect on the market.
Liverpool tried to test the waters for Alexander Isak, but dealing with the Saudi Public Investment fund that has unlimited money, they told Liverpool he’s not for sale at any price.
Hugo Ekitike has been on the market for a long time and his data profile is out of this world. The fit at Liverpool is sure an interesting one and in the long run, this could be completely frightening for the rest of the Premier League.
How does he fit?
First and foremost lets start with the film:
The one thing that jumps off the page right away is he’s an insane dribbler for his size.
You won’t find many true number nines in world football that can take defenders on like him and create his own shot.
As you can see below, he ranks in the 96th percentile for successful take ons among forwards in Europe’s top five leagues.
You’ll also see from the highlights above that there were a lot of situations where he would drop deep and carry the ball himself to create his own shot.
He ended up with 44 carries that led to a shot last season and as you can see from the chart below quite a few of them started from deep lying positions.
image via Opta the Analyst
This is important for a couple of different reasons.
First, having a forward that has this type of ability is rare and in the Premier League where everyone is pressing man to man out of possession, Ekitike will be in a lot of situations where he will have to be able to beat a defender 1 v 1.
Second, in Arne Slot’s system that is a hybrid of the one he played at Feyenoord combined with Jurgen Klopp’s direct style of play there are going to be a lot of times where he’s going to have to drop deep in build.
There are two matches that comes to mind for me last season: Away vs. Bournemouth and the League Cup Final against Newcastle.
Against Bournemouth, Liverpool didn’t even attempt to build out of the back. They would initially play it to one of the centerbacks who would use forwards as target men.
They won the match 2-0, but really struggled playing direct committing 35 danger zone losses all around the same area where they were trying Salah and Diaz.
image via markstatsbot on X
Newcastle were way more physical in the League Cup final and won almost every single duel when they forced Liverpool to go long and it’s why they won the trophy.
My concern for Ekitike is he physical enough to handle Premier League level defenders? Of course Liverpool now have a do everything number 10 in Florian Wirtz who can also drop deep to help aid in build up.
The two of them are going to be key because if either or both drop in when Liverpool try to build out of the back that leaves the centerbacks in an uncomfortable position.
Here is an example of a typical man to man press that Liverpool will see where the pressing forward will make a curved run to press the centerback while also cutting off an easy pass back to the goalkeeper.
If Ekitike (who would be number 9 in white) is able to drop deep without a centerback following him it gives Liverpool an easy pass and a 4 v 3 midfield overload.
This is the exact type of tactic Luis Enrique used with Ousmane Dembélé over the second half of last season.
Like Dembélé, Ekitike is so good on the ball as a dribbler that he can receive, turn, and carve up opposing defenses.
Now, if the opposing defense does decide to be aggressive and have a centerback follow him, look at the space that is leaves for a direct ball for Mo Salah (number 8 in this example) to run into going 1 v 1 against the fullback.
This is one of the main reasons why Liverpool want Ekitike so bad. A forward that can drop deep, dribble past defenders, and also create 1 v 1 situations for his teammates.
Finishing Issues
Hugo Ekitike is not the perfect striker or even a finished product. He failed in his time at PSG to break into the first team, which is why he made his way to Frankfurt.
Last season in the Bundesliga he scored 14 non-penalty goals from 19.2 xG. As you can see, most of his goals came inside the six yard box, which is where you want a striker taking most of his chances.
image via Opta the Analyst
However, this is a different league with a lot of teams in the bottom half of the table that are going to play very compact low defensive blocks and not freely allow shots from inside the six yard box.
He had the sixth highest npxG per shot (0.17) in the Bundesliga last season and had the highest shot volume with 114 total shots.
Liverpool have a ruthless finisher in Mo Salah and maybe the best number 10 in world football in Florian Wirtz, so these finishing issues may work themselves out, but it is a concern, especially going into a more difficult league.
Hugo Ekitike vs. Alexander Isak
Liverpool were reportedly ready to smash the British transfer record for Isak, but it looks like they are going to settle for Ekitike for half the price.
They are actually very similar players, but Isak is stone cold finisher whereas Ekitike is not. The frenchman is only 23 years old and is far from a completely finished product, but when you look at the data, they have a very similar profile.
Conclusion
Is Ekitike worth the reported 90 million euros that Liverpool are willing to pay? His transfermarkt.com is at 75 million, so I guess you have to ask is this the peak of his value or is he going to get better? I’m not sure we know the answer to that question.
He is a complete forward that is very similar to that of Isak for basically half of the price. He’ll need to figure out his finishing issues in front of net though if he’s going to be a success at Liverpool, otherwise, we have another Darwin Nunez situation on our hands.