FIFA Club World Cup Semifinal Data & Tactical Preview

The FIFA Club World Cup is down to the semifinals with one heavy weight clash and one where David is taking on Goliath.

In the bottom half of the bracket, PSG downed Bayern Munich 2-0, while Real Madrid won a wild 3-2 match against Dortmund.

In the top half, Fluminense survived against Al Hilal, while Chelsea struggled their way to a 2-1 over Palmeiras.

Chelsea are the favorites because of the draw, but whoever wins between Real Madrid and PSG will without a doubt be the favorite in the final. Xabi Alonso vs. Luis Enrique is about as good as it gets so it should be a very fun semifinals.

Let’s dive into the two matchups.

Chelsea vs. Fluminense

Chelsea in Possession vs. Fluminense out of Possession

Chelsea struggled once again against a low block. In the end they won the match 2-1 against Palmeiras, but they ended up with only 1.16 expected goals from 19 shots.

In fact, Chelsea only had two shots with an xG rating over 0.10.

image via FotMob

Now, because they were conservative it did limit Palmeiras’ chances in transition and they could employ the same strategy against Fluminense. But, that is a dangerous game to play because Chelsea is so much more talented offensively that they are way more likely to win with the match ending with nine goals rather than one or two.

If they leave the door open to one counter attack, Fluminense could pick them off and be headed to the final. That in the lies the problem with Enzo Maresca’s tactics.

I’ve mentioned this stat before, but in the final 14 games of the Premier League season, Chelsea held more than 55% possession in nine of those matches. They only averaged 1.14 non-penalty expected goals when holding that much possession.

Maresca cares too much about control to truly unlock the potential of what Chelsea’s offense can be. To be honest, I am getting a little tired of writing about Chelsea versus low blocks, but it keeps happening match after match because teams know if they sit deep, they can frustrate Chelsea into a lot of low quality chances.

Marseca did change up the build up structure because he used a different midfield option in the starting XI.

He switched Chelsea to a 3-1-6 using Andrey Santos, who recently came over from Strasbourg, as the single pivot. Instead of inverting Malo Gusto like he typically does, he pushed him up to the last line of defense and had Palmer and Fernandez dropping into the half space to pull defenders with them.

What this creates is an intricate passing networks and an overload to play through opponents in the first two phases of build up.

You can see from Chelsea’s pass map as well that their spacing was pretty much perfect.

image via markstatsbot on X

While this all looks great, you have to be able to use this to do something in the final third that is of value rather than settling for a low quality chance.

Chelsea still hasn’t figured that out and it’s going to be difficult against Fluminense who just held Al Hilal under one expected goal and are allowing the lowest xG per shot in this tournament.

Fluminense in Possession vs. Chelsea out of Possession

Fluminense played very direct in their match against Al Hilal and used their 5-2-3 mid block to generate some chances.

By defending in a front three when they win the ball they naturally would have a 3 v 3 situation as opposed to teams that defend in a front two.

Per Opta, they have the fewest 10+ pass sequences per 90 minutes of anyone in this tournament. They allowed Al Hilal to control almost 60% of the possession and quite honestly really weren’t that threatening going forward.

Fluminense only created 0.76 expected goals for the match and four of their 10 shots came from inside the penalty area.

Chelsea’s rest defense in possession has made it difficult for teams to break out against them. With the outside centerbacks positioning themselves in the half spaces, teams are basically unable to play right through the middle.

I’d imagine Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia start this match. That makes it even more difficult to break in transition against Chelsea because they are two of the best ball winning and physical midfielders in the world.

Fluminense has only created 4.6 expected goals in their five FIFA Club World Cup matches despite scoring eight times, which means that they are due to regress at some point.

PSG vs. Real Madrid

PSG in Possession vs. Real Madrid out of Possession

PSG really struggled building up against Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals. It was one of the worst build up performances they’ve had under Luis Enrique with 37 danger zone losses, the most since they beat Arsenal in the second leg of the Champions League semifinals.

image via markstats on X

They likely won’t have much trouble building up against Real Madrid who are still miles away from being the elite pressing team that Xabi Alonso wants them to be.

What will be interesting about this match is what Real Madrid decides to do at the back. Alonso has started to have his side switch to a back five out of possession, often dropping Aurélien Tchouaméni into the right centerback position to cover for Trent Alexander-Arnold.

The problem with facing PSG is that their positional rotations allow them to easily overload out wide or centrally against pretty much anybody.

My guess is Luis Enrique will be trying his best to isolate both of his wingers out wide and use the fullbacks to make both overlapping and underlapping runs.

Real Madrid has always been a really solid low block defending team and as you can see from the xG graph below, they comfortably held Dortmund in check after going 2-0.

image via markstatsbot on X

Real Madrid in Possession vs. PSG out of Possession

I have a feeling Arda Guler is going to be a regular started for Xabi Alonso this season because he’s about to Real Madrid’s version of Florian Wirtz.

The reason I say that is because Alonso having a number 10 that can rotate and drop in anywhere while also providing service in the final third is very rare in the modern game.

Valverde, Bellingham, and Tchouaméni all are very good on the ball, but Valverde and Bellingham specifically are at their best going forward as midfielders that can crash the box, not playing a deep lying role.

Here is an example of the positional rotations and the importance of Arda Guler’s ability to drop in and aid in build up.

He is able to play the ball to Tchouaméni who went and occupied the space when Valverde dropped in and pulled a defender with him.

Vinicius then plays a beautiful one touch pass to Bellingham who makes a run into the space that he created and gives him an open shot right a top the 18 yard box.

Here is another scenario where Guler drops way deep in build up to recieve the ball directly from Courtois.

When you look at the comparisons and data between Wirtz and Guler, it’s actually frightening how similar they are.

PSG is going to press Real Madrid with a lot of intensity. Under Ancelotti whenever Real Madrid faced Barcelona, they primarily went long and didn’t even try to build out of the back.

Xabi Alonso doesn’t want to play that way and with Guler as an option dropping deep he will try to maintain an overload through the first phase similar to how they did against Dortmund and I think they will be pretty successful in doing so.

PSG is going to have to play Lucas Beraldo at centerback with Pacho and Hernandez suspended. It’s not that much of a downgrade because he’s really good on the ball and very good at winning aerial duels.

This match really comes down to how effective Real Madrid is at maintaining possession and control. If PSG are able to pin them in and maintain a 60%+ field tilt, it’s going to be tough for Real Madrid to hold them out as the match gets deeper into the second half.