FIFA Club World Cup Final Preview

It all comes down to this, Chelsea vs. PSG for the FIFA Club World Cup Final.

Both clubs are coming off winning a European trophy at the end of the season, but PSG are looking to cap off one of the most dominant years of football we’ve ever seen.

Luis Enrique’s side has gone through the gauntlet to get here. They were put in a group with Atletico Madrid who they dismantled 5-0. They were paired with Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals and dispatched them 2-0. Then they took on Xabi Alonso’s Real Madrid and hammered them 4-0.

Chelsea on the other hand has had one of the easiest paths you could ask for. The most difficult team they faced throughout this entire Club World Cup was Benfica and coincidently was also the only European team they faced during the competition.

It should be a very fun afternoon in New Jersey so lets dive into the matchup.

Chelsea in Possession vs. PSG out of Possession

Chelsea deployed a new type of build up formation against Fluminense similar to the one they did against Palmieras.

They were operating in a 3-1-6 formation with Moises Caicedo as the lone pivot, which caused Fluminense all sorts of problems.

The reason is because Joao Padro, Christopher Nkuku, Enzo Fernandez, and Cole Palmer all played centrally and would trade off their rotations on who dropped in deep and who stayed high.

You can see here that Nkuku drops into recieve the ball without much pressure.

After a couple of quick passes Cole Palmer is now the one who drops into receive the ball.

All of this movement and positional rotations were cause Fluminense so many problems because they were unsure whether to follow any player that was dropping in or maintain their positions in their 5-2-3 low block.

In the end, Chelsea created 1.7 expected goals from 17 shots, which is much better than what they’ve been putting up against low blocks throughout this tournament.

However, this is a completely different opponent and one they have not seen in a very long time.

I’ve highlighted many times how Maresca had Chelsea maintaining a large share of the possession over the second half of the season, but there were very few times they played a team like PSG.

They hammered Liverpool at the end of the season 3-1 with 36% of the ball, but that was when Liverpool already had the title wrapped up.

However, it does highlight something that has been true about Chelsea for a long time: they are a way better transition team than a build up team.

Having technical players like Cole Palmer and Enzo Fernandez on the ball who can rip open defenses with a line breaking pass is something that Chelsea needs to do more often under Maresca, but he’s too concerned with control.

Now having Liam Delap and Joao Pedro, two forwards with incredibly ability to make runs off the last line of defense, Chelsea is actually more well equipped to hurt PSG in possession than any team they’ve faced so far in this tournament.

If Maresca tries to maintain control in this match and out possess PSG, I think he’s making a grave mistake because it’s going to limit the potential of Chelsea in this match.

Two of their top five xG performances in the Premier League this season came when they were holding less than 45% of the ball.

image via fbref.com

PSG in Possession vs. Chelsea out of Possession

Chelsea really hasn’t been pressing high with regularity throughout this tournament and actually have sat more in a 4-2-4 or 4-4-2 midblock with the sole aim at not allowing any central progression.

You can see from Fluminense’s pass map in the semifinals that they did a very good job of not allowing them to progress the ball out of their own third, as most of their passes for the match came in their own end.

image via markstatsbot on X

The problem Chelsea has is they have not faced a team yet that can build out effectively like PSG. The positional rotations make it very difficult to defend, but I will say if they limit central progression and stay in their zonal structure I think they will be okay.

The worry always with PSG is if you limit central progression the ball will get funneled out wide where their elite wingers are 1 v 1 against the opposing fullback. However, Reece James and Marc Cucurella are two outstanding 1 v 1 defenders and Chelsea have done a fantastic job at defending crosses throughout this tournament.

The normal PSG solution to this is allow Mendes and Hakimi to push forward making both under and overlapping runs with the wingers to create 2 v 1 situations. This is difficult for any team to defend, but relying on solid box defending isn’t a bad strategy.

Using Dembele as a false nine has completely transformed PSG and make them virtually impossible to defend through the first couple phases of build up. You have to be an elite man to man high pressing teams like Arsenal of Bayern Munich with centerbacks that are willing to follow him into uncomfortable positions.

Chelsea is the furthest thing from that and also giving Vitinha free reign to drop into the last line of defense to aid in build and roam around the pitch without much resistance allows him to dominate the match like this.

image via markstatsbot on X

That is the worry here for Chelsea. Even though the midblock may be effective in limiting central progression, PSG are the most difficult team to defend in the world because they have so many different way to not only score, but maintain control over the match.