FA Cup Final Preview

Previewing Chelsea vs. Manchester City

May 14, 2026

We have reached the FA Cup Final.

Manchester City has some bad recent history in this final. In 2024, they lost to their biggest rival, Manchester United. Then last year, Crystal Palace beat them 1-0 to secure their first major trophy in the club’s history.

It seems that Pep Guardiola is more than likely going to leave Manchester City in the summer, so he really is trying to go out on a high note and potentially win the domestic treble.

Chelsea, on the other hand, is in a weird position. It seems Xabi Alonso is going to join the club in the summer, but for now, they are sitting in ninth place in the table. That means there may not be any European Football if they do not win this final.

For those wondering, if Manchester City wins the FA Cup, England would get a second Europa League spot. Sixth and seventh place in the table would go to the Europa League, and eighth place would go to the Conference League.

This is the third meeting between these two this season. Chelsea snatched a late draw with Calum McFarlane in charge at the Etihad, but Manchester City beat Chelsea 3-0 recently at Stamford Bridge.

It should be a really exciting final, so let’s dive in.

Note: For those looking for a Premier League Matchweek 37 Preview, I have decided to only preview a couple of individual matches. Because of the scheduling conflict with the FA Cup final and most of the matches not really having any stakes, the four matches I am going to preview individually are Liverpool vs. Aston Villa, Arsenal vs. Burnley, Bournemouth vs. Manchester City, and Chelsea vs. Tottenham.

Those previews will be coming out the morning of each match, so hit that subscribe button so you don’t miss anything.

Chelsea in Possession vs. Manchester City out of Possession

Chelsea will really have to hit Manchester City with counterattacks or aggressively run off their back line to create high-quality chances in this match.

In the 1-1 draw (which Calum MacFarlane oversaw), Chelsea had one of the worst build-up performances of any Premier League team this season.

image via markstatsbot on X

In the previous meeting, Chelsea was actually pretty effective in the first half, with their aggressive passing creating some dangerous chances.

While City had been successful with their 4-2-4, there was a weakness in the system that Chelsea exploited, ultimately forcing Guardiola to change their out-of-possession structure in the second half.

If a pass is able to go wide as it did here to Cucurella, you have a massive amount of space to run into, and here Cucurella was able to play Neto in behind.

This is what Chelsea needed more of in that match: these quick transitions, where they were able to play through City’s counterpress and free up runners off the back line.

This set up a pretty decent shot for Neto cutting inside.

Chelsea also didn’t exploit it enough, but these types of runs were there for them because there was so much space available out wide in City’s 4-2-4.

Slow structured build-up is not going to work in this match. Chelsea is a way better quick-transition team than they are trying to control matches.

In the three matches under McFarlane, Chelsea has only created 1.74 total expected goals from open play, so don’t be surprised if they really struggle in this match.

Manchester City in Possession vs. Chelsea out of Possession

It will be really interesting to see how Chelsea defends Manchester City.

I would imagine they are going to be very passive, allow Pep’s side to control a ton of possession, and try to force them to play the ball out wide.

The previous meeting was under Liam Rosenior, and Chelsea were in a sort of high-to-mid 5-3-2 block, but Manchester City were able to overload them pretty easily and progress the ball into the final third.

Once Manchester City got to the final third, they kept trying to hammer the left side of the pitch through Jeremy Doku.

There were many times where either Silva would drift out wide, as you see here, or O’Reilly would hold his position at left back.

These wide overloads were key not only to getting Doku isolated 1 v 1, but also to using Rayan Cherki in a much wider role on both sides of the pitch because of his elite passing ability.

You can see from his heatmap that he spent most of his time on the right-hand side of the pitch.

Rayan Cherki Heatmap vs. Chelsea

imag via SofaScore

There were even instances where he would roam out to the left-hand side as well to allow Doku to invert into the half space.

How Chelsea deals with him and Doku out wide will be interesting, because the alternative is not good either.

Manchester City will initially try to play through the middle, and Chelsea typically sticks to man-to-man concepts.

Even a little bit of space is enough for City’s attackers to get a shot off.

Their first goal against Crystal Palace on Wednesday is a good example of that.

Foden drops in and pulls a defender with him. Semenyo runs into the space created, Foden finds him, and he puts it in the back of the net.

Manchester City created 2.29 expected goals on 18 shots with a whopping 47 touches in Chelsea’s penalty area. It’s going to take a massive defensive performance from the Blues to keep Manchester City in check.

Chelsea vs. Manchester City xG

image via FotMob

Conclusion

Manchester City are the overwhelming favorites to lift the trophy, and for good reason, given the run of form they are on.

Pep took a risk on Wednesday by resting many key players, so Manchester City should be fresh and ready to go for this final.

The real worry for Chelsea in this final is how they defend Manchester City. Having to defend in a low block, trying to keep City out of the middle while also keeping Doku and Semenyo in check, is not only physically difficult but also mentally draining.

For Chelsea to pull off an upset, they have to not only defend at a high level but also hit City in their transition moments.

Pep is 12-3-5 all time against Chelsea since he arrived at Manchester City, but has not lost to the Blues since June of 2020.