Chelsea vs. Tottenham Preview

Previewing a high stakes London Derby

May 19, 2026

Chelsea and Tottenham have had disappointing seasons, but they still have a ton to play for today.

Chelsea were beaten in the FA Cup final by Manchester City, meaning they will go trophyless this season. Xabi Alonso has agreed to become the next manager, which is an insanely good hire, but he can’t help them in this match, which is crucial for their chances of qualifying for Europe.

For Tottenham, it’s fairly simple: if they win or draw, they will avoid relegation. If they lose, they leave the door open for potential relegation on Championship Sunday.

Even though this may not be the most appealing Chelsea vs. Tottenham match we’ve seen in years past, the stakes are incredibly high, which should make for a really fun match of football.

Let’s dive into the London Derby.

Chelsea in Possession vs. Tottenham out of Possession

Chelsea were quite bad in the FA Cup final at Wembley. Calum McFarlane switched them to a 3-4-2-1 formation and when they were building up it almost became a 3-3-4 with Fernandez dropping into the midfield and both wingbacks pushing up to the last line of defense.

image via markstatsbot on X

Chelsea really hasn’t improved since Liam Rosenior was sacked. In the four matches McFarlane has been in charge, Chelsea has only created a total of 1.91 expected goals from open play.

They have become much more conservative and are not willing to be uber aggressive in possession like they were under Rosenior.

That is basically what you need to do to Tottenham. De Zerbi is having them press out of a midblock, and it’s pretty clear that if you can bait Spurs into pressing, you can find space in build-up or be able to play balls over the top.

Teams have not really been able to exploit Tottenham since De Zerbi has taken over. To be honest, defense was never really the issue for Spurs under Thomas Frank. They are a very good low-block defending team despite the poor results. Their problems are when they try to man-mark and press high up the pitch.

If Tottenham is able to sit in a low block, I think Chelsea is going struggle to break them down.

Tottenham in Possession vs. Chelsea out of Possession

Here is the thing: has Roberto De Zerbi done some things well for Tottenham? Yes, in my opinion, their build-up is slightly better than it was under Thomas Frank, which is a testament to how good a coach he is to get them out of the position they were in such a short period of time.

Tottenham haven’t changed their build-up structure; they are still working from the same 4-2 base they’ve used for the last few years.

The reality for the Spurs is that the structure isn’t bad; it simply comes down to execution. Against Leeds, they weren’t horrific, but they certainly weren’t good. They turned the ball over 29 times in dangerous areas, with six of them leading to a shot.

image via markstatsbot on X

Once Tottenham gets to the final third, I want to make one thing clear: nothing has changed from Thomas Frank.

Tottenham is completely reliant on creating chances from either crosses or set pieces. They have absolutely no presence playing through the middle of the pitch. You can see from their recent match against Leeds that was basically where all of their chances came from.

Since De Zerbi has taken over, Tottenham have actually gotten worse from open play because they’ve only created a total of 2.84 xG in his five matches in charge.

All data is from FotMob

Chelsea has been playing a midblock under McFarlane and likely will sit off and dare Tottenham to break them down.

However, we all know Chelsea’s struggles defending set pieces this season.

All data is from Opta the Analyst

Conclusion

Both of these teams are really struggling offensively down the stretch. There is a ton at stake, but I really think this is going to be a low event match, similar to what we saw in the FA Cup final on Saturday.

My guess is De Zerbi is going to come out very conservative, knowing that a draw is good enough to avoid relegation. Therefore, Chelsea are probably going to control a majority of the possession, but they really need to go for the win.

Chelsea are three points behind Brentford for eighth place, which as of right now would get them into the Conference League.

It was a long time ago and also under Maresca, but Chelsea completely dominated Tottenham in the previous meeting, having one of their highest xG totals of the season.