Champions League Simulations

Comparing my projections to the market

If you have been following me for a while, you know that I do individual match projections for a lot of different leagues. Recently, I have figured out how to do Monte Carlo simulations, which really helps identify value in the futures market.

Below are the results of each teams percentage chance of making it to each stage and then below that is my projection to win the title compared to the market.

I’ll keep these free until the quarterfinals, so enjoy.

To win the title compared to the market:

Odds are from Bet365. As always search for the best price.

Future I am adding: Inter to win the Champions League (+1200 for 1 unit)

Inter is one of the most tactically diverse teams on the planet and are set up perfectly for a tournament like this. They are well able controlling possession and breaking down low blocks because they face a ton of them in Serie A.

What makes them so good is their ability out of possession. They will typically sit in a 5-3-2 and do a tremendous job of denying space through the middle of the pitch. They are also a deadly counter attacking side with Thuram and Martinez as two of the best transition strikers in the world.

In Serie A this season they have a +0.91 expected goal differential per 90 minutes, which is the seventh best mark among Europe’s top five leagues.

However, what really is exciting about Inter is their path to the finals. The top side of the bracket is not where you want to be right now. Inter gets maybe the most favorable matchup in the Round of 16 facing Feyenoord. After that the potential path is Bayern or Leverkusen and then at worst Barcelona in the semifinals. They are perfectly capable of destroying all three of those teams in transition and also playing a solid low defensive block to deny them from creating a lot of high quality chances.

I have Inter projected as the second favorite, so I love the value on them to win the Champions League at 12/1.