Champions League Notes Round of 16 (Second Leg)

I decided to pass on any analysis for Arsenal vs. PSV because the tie is over and both sides a likely going to rotate their squads.

Barcelona vs. Benfica

Barcelona in Possession vs. Benfica out of Possession

Barcelona got a red card in the 21st minute, which completely changed the complexion of the match.

That meant that Barcelona wasn’t able to tilt the field on Benfica and instead were the ones looking to play counter attacking football. However, since they have a one goal advantage it actually plays right into their hands.

By nature, at least in the Champions League, Benfica has been a low to mid block defending team because Bruno Lage favors defensive solidity over consistently pressing teams high up the pitch. Forcing them out of that defensive structure is going to allow Barcelona to exploit space in behind.

The thing about Hansi Flick is he wants his team to make aggressive progressive passes or play balls over the top whenever thy can. They aren’t solely a short pass build up team.

Among Europe’s top five league, Barcelona is averaging the third most progressive passes per 90 minutes behind only Bayern Munich and PSG.

When Barcelona did create their flurry of chances early on it came because of their midfield overload. As you can see below, they were able to find gaps inbetween the lines and opened Benfica right up.

Barcelona will also have a rest advantage because of the postponement of their match against Osasuna on Saturday.

Benfica in Possession vs. Barcelona out of Possession

The red card obviously changed things, but over the course of the two meetings, Benfica has created five expected goals against Barcelona.

What they’ve shown in both meetings is they can take advantage of Barcelona’s high defensive line. Being able to not only play balls in behind, but switch balls as well really throws Barcelona out of position because they often are trying to press and force teams to one side of the pitch.

What the means is when you are able to effectively switch the play, not only do you have a lot of time and space on the ball, but it’s much easier to exploit gaps when the defensive block is moving across the pitch.

What it also allows you to do is send in a bunch of crosses, which is something Benfica has had success with against Barcelona completing 11 crosses over the course of their two meetings.

This tie is far from over and it will come down to how effective Benfica is at exploiting Barcelona’s high line and converting their crosses into big chances.

Leverkusen vs. Bayern Munich

Leverkusen in Possession vs. Bayern Munich out of Possession

Leverkusen went with a completely low risk approach against Bayern in the first leg, which didn’t work out at all.

They specifically kept going long from goalkicks like they did in the meeting prior, but this time around, they really weren’t able to win a high number of those duels and quite frankly lost control of the match.

image via Tactx on X

In the end, Leverkusen only took three shots, created 0.4 expected goals, and after the red card in the 62nd minute the match and likely the tie was over.

In this meeting, they are going to have to have control, they are going to have to successfully build up through Bayern’s press because the low risk long ball approach is not going allow them to overcome this deficit.

In the previous meeting when they were successful against Bayern they did have a lot of success in transition, specifically off of high turnovers (we’ll get to that in a second).

What will be interesting is the approach Bayern takes in this match. Do they continue to press high to force Leverkusen to play long or do they sit back passively and try to defend a three goal lead?

We will have to see.

Bayern Munich in Possession vs. Leverkusen out of Possession

When Leverkusen dominated Bayern Munich in their last Bundesliga match it’s because their high press was incredibly effective. They went man to man across the pitch and suffocated them.

Bayern was forced to play long over and over again and Leverkusen were able to win a high number of duels. That was not the case in the first leg, which is one of the main reasons why Leverkusen was not effective.

image via FotMob

In the end, Leverkusen only forced 17 danger zone losses and three high turnovers. They are going to be effective with their high press if they want to get back into this.

I know that in the end Bayern created over three expected goals, but a dropped cross and a penalty accounts for over half their xG. So, maybe there is some hope for Leverkusen in this second leg.