Champions League Knockout Phase Playoff Notes (First Leg)

Some thoughts on this week's Champions League matches

Brest vs. PSG

Brest in Possession vs. PSG out of Possession

This will now be the third meeting between these two teams and Brest really only has one way of playing against PSG.

Trying to build out of the back against PSG is not going to work, as they’ve figured out in their two meetings because of how good of a pressing team PSG is. So, instead they’ve stuck to their usual style of play under Eric Roy by getting the ball into wide areas and sending direct balls up to the forwards.

To be fair it worked twice in the previous meeting, even if both goals came from outside the box. The second goal is pretty good example of what they are trying to accomplish. Get their big forward Ludovic Ajorque who is 6’5” into a 1 v 1 against the opposing centerback and let him go win the duel.

As you can see also from that image, Brest have a 4 v 3 centrally versus PSG’s back line, which is why Ajorque gets freed up in the first place.

This is basically what you are going to see for the entire match. Brest was successful with these types of direct balls for an entire season last year, but now that teams have figured that this what they want to do, situations like in the image above have become very rare, which is why they are only averaging 1.02 non-penalty expected goals in Ligue 1 this season.

In their two meetings against PSG they have scored three goals, but it’s come off of only 1.9 expected goals.

PSG in Possession vs. Brest out of Possession

A couple of things that were very concerning for Brest in the previous meeting is they didn’t learn from Manchester City’s mistakes.

You simply cannot play a midblock against Luis Enrique’s team. Yes, they are a team that primarily builds out of the back in a 2-3-5 with short passes, but with Dembele and Barcola keeping the width, they often get into 1 v 1 situations against the opposing fullback.

When that happens, there are very few defenders on the planet that can defend them.

Their first goal against Brest in the previous meeting was almost a carbon copy of the first goal they scored against Manchester City.

PSG has scored a whopping eight goals and created 6.4 expected goals in their two meetings against Brest. A lot of that can be contributed to the fact that Brest hasn’t applied much ball pressure in either meeting.

The first image above is norm when watching back through some of the two meetings. If you allow PSG to have time and space on the ball they are going to punish you over and over again.

The only way to approach Luis Enrique’s team is to relentlessly press them high or sit back in very low block. Playing something inbetween like Brest does is asking for trouble, which is why PSG has hammered them in both meetings.

Manchester City vs. Real Madrid

Manchester City in Possession vs. Real Madrid out of Possession

Manchester City is more than likely going to control a lot of the possession in this match, which will allow Real Madrid to sit in their preferred low defensive block.

The thing about Real Madrid is they are a terrible pressing team. Mbappe, Rodrygo, and Vinicius Jr all are below average defenders and pressers, which often times allows teams to open up Real Madrid.

Last year when these two met in the quarter finals, Manchester City held 61% possession in the first leg and then 67% possession in the second leg, completely tilting the field on Real Madrid.

While controlling possession and tilting the field is a good thing, Manchester City were completely unable to play through the middle of the pitch. This is what tends to happen with them against low defensive blocks: they circulate the ball around the defensive block and look for openings, but this is what ended up happening.

image via markstatsbot on X

Pep’s side is still struggling to break down good defensive blocks and are now becoming reliant on their wingers creating chances in 1 v 1 situations. Their recent match against Arsenal was a perfect example of their inefficiencies against low blocks.

Now, Real Madrid is in an injury crisis across their back line. Rudiger, Alaba, Carvajal, and Militão are all out. Against Atletico Madrid over the weekend they had to play Aurélien Tchouaméni and Raúl Asencio as their center back pairing.

While this isn’t the most ideal situation, Real Madrid have proven to be effective in their compact defensive structure and should be able to limit Manchester City’s chances.

Real Madrid in Possession vs. Manchester City out of Possession

By now you know all of the issues with Manchester City’s defense. Their press isn’t good enough to turn teams over and their high defensive line is getting exposed with balls in behind. However, I want to focus on something a little different today: rest defense.

The textbook definition is: behavior of the deepest defenders during ball possession with the goal to prevent an opposing counterattack after a ball loss during defensive transition.

One of the reasons why teams are able to break with numbers too often against Manchester City has to do with their rest defense. The way you position your team in the opponents final third is crucial and what is happening too often is Kovacic is getting pushed too high up the pitch or is not doing a great job of covering the middle of the pitch.

The other problems come because Manchester City simply can’t close the ball down when they are counter pressing. Here is a screenshot of the point Arsenal won the ball before they scored their fourth goal.

Kovacic jumps to take away the pass to Odegaard, but Gvardiol is pushed so high up, it allows an easy pass to Martinelli and Arsenal are off on a 2 v 2 counter attack.

Now, imagine Vinicius Jr, Rodryo, and Mbappe breaking in these types of scenarios. That is honestly where Real Madrid are at their best. When their front three can break and get into 1 v 1 situations against the opposing defense, they are almost impossible to stop, which Manchester City found out first hand last year.

Real Madrid is averaging over two expected goals per 90 minutes in both the Champions League and La Liga, so this one is more than likely going to be very high scoring.