Can Napoli hold off Inter for the Serie A title?

Simulating the final day of the Serie A season

Serie A knows how to draw ratings. Instead of burying this match on a Sunday with the Premier League and La Liga, they are allowing it to take center stage on Friday as both Inter and Napoli will be in action.

To say these two are limping down the stretch towards to the title would be an understatement. Both of them have had chances to deliver the death blow to the other, but neither of them took the opportunity.

If Napoli loses the title on Friday it will be one of the bigger choke jobs we’ve ever seen because of how easy their schedule has been down the stretch.

image via LiveScore

They will finish out the season not playing a team in the top half of the table for their last EIGHT matches. Credit to them for winning five straight, but drawing against Genoa and Parma now only leaves them one point ahead of Inter. If they would have won either of those matches, they would have already won the title, but hindsight is 20/20.

Inter has a little bit more of an excuse trying to contend for three competitions at once. They survived against Barcelona in the Champions League, but in Coppa Italia and in Serie A, they’ve been faltering, mainly because it’s been a difficult schedule.

Inter had the advantage for a long time, but back to back losses to Bologna and Roma gave Napoli the advantage.

image via LiveScore

So, that sets us up for Friday where Napoli have a massive advantage playing at home against 14th place Cagliari, while Inter have to travel to play Cesc Fabregas’ Como on the road.

Score Probabilities

Como vs. Inter

Napoli vs. Cagliari

As you can see, Napoli has a massive advantage based on the probabilities because Cagliari has been a below average team in Serie A. Como on the other hand is on the rise and has a lot of really talented young players.

Fabregas has them playing incredible football. They’ve won six of their last seven matches and have notched wins over Napoli, Roma, and Atalanta. Cesc is already showing himself to a very good tactical manager and this is a great breakdown of the tactics he’s used at Como this season.

With that being said, Inter dominated them 2-0 in the previous meeting and held them to 0.3 expected goals, so it’s not going to be an easy task for Fabregas’ side to play spoiler.

If there is one thing I know about Antonio Conte is if Napoli get a lead in this match or they get word that Inter has fell behind at Como, they are going to sit in the most passive compact defensive block you’ve ever seen or have the most conservative looking attack of the season.

From an even game state, Napoli is averaging 1.78 xG per 90 minutes, but when they get a lead, that number drops to about 1.07 xG per 90 minutes.

image via understat.com

Napoli without a doubt have the advantage, but what do the simulations have to say?

I have Napoli at a little over a 2/3rds chance to take home their second Serie A title in three years.

All they need to do is beat Cagliari. That’s it.