Unexpected Goals

Champions League Final Tactical Review

Unexpected Goals — Sun, 31 May 2026 07:22:39 GMT

Arsenal was looking for revenge against PSG from last year’s semi-final in Budapest on Saturday.

The Gunners were looking to win their first-ever European trophy, while PSG were looking to defend their title.

It turned out to be a very tight, cagey final, with honestly not a lot of tactical nuance. Arsenal used their early lead to change their tactics, and for most of the match, PSG had no answer.

A second-half penalty tied things up, and both teams struggled to create chances, which ultimately led to a penalty shootout.

PSG ended up winning in the end, but Mikel Arteta and Arsenal put on a masterclass of low-block defending. They frustrated PSG for a full 120 minutes and deserve a lot of credit for how hard they worked to get this match to penalties.

Today, we will take a look at the tactical battle between Mikel Arteta and Luis Enrique.

Let’s dive in.

First Half

2:48- Even before the opening goal, Arsenal weren’t trying to press PSG high up the pitch. PSG was definitely trying to bait them into pressing, but Arsenal sat in a well-structured 4-2-4 that they switched during the second half of the season.

PSG was using positional rotations to try and pull Arsenal all over the pitch, but I must say, Aretea had a well-prepared plan on how to deal with it. Arsenal stuck to their zonal concepts; the centerbacks wouldn’t jump when PSG’s forwards dropped deep, and the Gunners communicated extremely well, switching when players left their space.

Arsenal got a really fortunate bounce to send Havertz in behind, and he finished emphatically in the roof of the net.

After the opening goal here is the question PSG needed to answer: How are you going to break Arsenal down?

PSG is a team built on ball carrying. It works in modern football because everyone presses man to man. What happens when you face a team that will not let you carry the ball through them, won’t have their centerbacks jumping to create space in behind, and essentially make your positional rotations useless?

Can you suddenly flip a switch and start trying to send in crosses or take advantage of set piece opportunities?

PSG was trying so hard to create passing combinations to pull Arsenal’s back line out of positon to create space in behind, but Arsenal was not allowing it to happen.

They would have much rather been overloaded in the second phase then give PSG any room to play balls in behind.

Here is a good example of that. Mendes has the ball wide and Kvaratskhelia drops into receive the ball. If they were playing Bayern Munich, Mosquera would have followed him, which would have created space for Mendes to run in behind.s

Instead, Mosquera let’s him go receive the ball and simply switches with Saka.

PSG obviously spent a ton of time in Arsenal’s final third of the pitch. What the match basically became was Enrique’s side buildup in a 3-1-6 with Vitinha as the single pivot with Arsenal sitting in a very compact and well structured 4-4-2.

The way to open up PSG is try and carry the ball through them or win duels with long balls from the back. Arsenal was having no luck with long balls, so here Myles Lewis-Skelly dribbled past his defender, which set up a really dangerous cross into the box. It would have been nice to see more of this from Arsenal over the course of the match.

For the remainder of the first half, PSG kept trying to use their positional rotations to find pockets of space in the center of Arsenal’s 4-4-2, but they couldn’t find their way through. They didn’t really make many attempts to overload the wide areas, as Enrique wanted them to play through the middle.

These were all of PSG’s successful passes in the first half, as you can see, nothing was completed in Zone 14 right above the 18 yard box or in the penalty area for that matter.

PSG First Half Successful Passes

image via Opta the Analyst

PSG ended the first half with 77% possession, almost 250 more passes than Arsenal, but only six shots and 0.26 xG to show for it.

image via FotMob

Second Half

One interesting change out of the gates from Arteta was switching Arsenal to more of a man to man concept. I am sure he knew Enrique would have devised a plan to attack Arsenal’s 4-2-4 at the break, so Arteta tried to give PSG a different look. Specifically, Myles-Lewis Skelly was tasked with following Vitinha.

Once PSG recognized it, they tried dribbling past Arsenal any moment they got, but Arsenal did a really nice job with their switch to nullify any type of chance created from those carries.

When you face really compact low blocks, you have to move the ball quickly from side to side to either open up space centrally or create a wide overload on the opposite end of the pitch when the ball gets switched.

PSG was not quick enough with these types of ball rotations and Arsenal was comfortably able to keep everything in front of them.

Mosquera gave away a penalty to Kvaratskhelia, which bailed PSG out because they were getting really frustrated. Dembele slotted it home to make it 1-1.

One of the few mistakes from Arsenal almost gave PSG the lead. Saliba misplays the header after a corner, which frees up Kvaratskhelia to break on goal and ends up hitting the post.

For the entire second half, Arsenal had no interest in trying to play out from the back. They were trying to rely on winning duels and second balls, which really wasn’t that successful.

For the match, David Raya only had two short passes and was only 9 for 35 on his long balls, which is a big reason why PSG were able to control so much possession.

image via FotMob

PSG really need to use more switch balls throughout this match. Here the second PSG wins the ball, Mendes finds Doue in space and he is able to set up Vitinha for a dangerous shot at the top of the 18 yard box.

The second half ended with PSG completely dominating the ball. They outshot Arsenal in that 45 minutes 12 to 1, but still struggled to create chances because they only were able to muster 0.41 xG from open play.

Extra Time First Half

PSG maintained their 3-1-6 build up structure, which forced Arsenal’s two wide midfielders to drop a little deeper, creating a 4 v 2 in the first phase of build up for PSG. This is one of the reasons why they were able to hold such a high amount of possession.

Arsenal was way too conservative for most of this match and really needed more moments like this. Rice is able to beat his man, which creates a 4 v 3 situation out wide.

He found Eze in the half space, who released Madueke in behind to set up a dangerous cross into the box that PSG had to deal with.

Arsenal had a penalty claim on Madueke, but (even as an Arsenal fan I can admit) it was never a penalty.

There really wasn’t much happening in the first half of extra time with a Hakimi shot from outside the box being the only attempt.

Extra Time Second Half

Vitinha was injured at the end of the first half of extra time, which meant Enrique had to make some tactical changes.

Instead of using Lucas Beraldo as the single pivot, Hakimi inverted into the midfield, which meant PSG was now in a 3-2-5, as opposed to a 3-1-6.

PSG struggled to break Arsenal down for the final 15 minutes and to be honest, both teams looked exhausted, so there really weren’t many chances for either side.

PSG went on to win the penalty shootout to keep the Champions League trophy in Paris.

Conclusion

The early goal from Arsenal turned this match into a cagey affair and a tough watch for the neutral.

The question is would Arsenal have defended that deep and played that conservative if they hadn’t scored in the sixth minute? I don’t think so.

Arteta would have picked his moments, but there is no way he was coming to Budapest with the plan of handing PSG 74% of the ball. He only did that because they scored early and it allowed them go to one of the two extremes you have to play against PSG.

Enrique’s side forces you to either press them high with insane intensity (which is what Arsenal did in the semifinals last year and were successful) or you have to sit in the lowest, most compact block to try and frustrate them.

Arsenal chose option two and I have to say it worked.

You can look at these passing stats and think PSG completely dominated this match and the did simply from a control standpoint.

PSG vs. Arsenal Passing Stats

image via FotMob

However, If you take away the penalty and the three fast break chances, PSG only created 0.48 xG against Arsenal’s low block for 120 minutes.

They completely shut down all of PSG’s forwards from carrying the ball past them or into dangerous positions as well. Dembélé, Doué, Kvaratskhelia, Barcola combined for only three successful dribbles out of 10 attempts.

Most spectators will find that match quite boring, but it was a beautiful match between a knockout artist and a boxer.

Arsenal came up short in the end, but they gave everything and then some to shut down PSG.

As an Arsenal fan, this one hurts and Gabriel’s missed penalty immediately is up there, as one of my worst heartbreaks as a fan. It hurts because Arsenal didn’t blow it, they went toe to toe with the European Champions and they never lost a match during this Champions League run.

This one will sting for a while, but Arsenal will be back on this stage again. The Gunners are not going anywhere.

World Cup Preview: #10 Belgium

Unexpected Goals — Sat, 30 May 2026 23:30:55 GMT

Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Belgium.

The golden generation for Belgium has passed them by. This World Cup is going to be a bit different for the Belgians, who will rely on a mixture of experience and youth. This is their 15th appearance overall, with their best-ever finish coming in Russia in 2018, when they finished third. So, what can we expect from the Belgians at this World Cup?

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

At the end of this series, I will post my final rankings before the World Cup begins. In addition, I will be simulating the World Cup, which will likely be released the week before the tournament starts.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

#25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

How did they get here?

UEFA World Cup qualifying is split into two rounds. In the first round, all European countries are divided into 12 groups, with the winners of each group automatically qualifying for the World Cup.

The second round playoffs consisted of the twelve group runners-up and the best four Nations League group winners, based on the Nations League interim overall ranking, who finished outside the top two of their qualifying group.

Belgium had an impressive qualifying campaign, but there were a few slip-ups along the way. They went unbeaten and topped their qualifying group over Wales by two points.

Belgium Stats

All data is from footystats.org & FotMob

Belgium racked up the goals during World Cup qualifying. They obviously didn’t face the most difficult of competition, but scoring 29 goals and creating 20.94 expected goals in eight matches is pretty impressive.

image via FotMob

Belgium was in the top five in almost every offensive category and finished qualifying with a total of 490 touches i penalty area, ’ penalty area, which was 101 more than the next closest team.

Even though their matches against Wales got a little crazy, they were really impressive defensively during qualifying. They allowed only 5.57 expected goals in their eight qualifying matches, and even at the Euros two summers ago, they conceded only 3.4 expected goals in four matches, including holding France to 1.02 xG.

They’ve consistently been a very possession-dominant team, averaging 55% of the ball at the Euros and 65% in World Cup qualifying.

It will be interesting to see at this World Cup what happens when they aren’t able to maintain majority possession, if they are able to succeed.

Belgium Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

Belgium is in a transition period where the key players from their golden generation are on the back end of their career, while the younger generation is just starting come up and play at some of the top clubs across Europe.

Even though he is 34 years old, Kevin De Bruyne is still the main creator in Belgium’s attack. He battled injuries at Napoli this season, but during World Cup qualifying, he led Belgium with six goals.

The key, though, in opinion, to Belgium’s attack at this World Cup is going to be Jeremy Doku because he is the best 1v1 dribbler in world football by a mile.

He led the Premier League this season, averaging 4.2 successful dribbles per 90 minutes, and was the best chance creator in Europe’s top five leagues this season.

image via Scout Lab

Alongside Kevin De Bruyne, Youri Tielemans is another huge key to the Belgian midfield. He scored three goals during qualifying, and playing the number eight role is crucial to setting the tempo and helping Belgium not only build out of the back, but also control matches.

Belgium Tactics

Belgium has made a managerial change since the 2024 Euros. Domenico Tedesco left his post at the end of 2024, and Rudi Garcia took over in January after having been out of football for two years. The performances have been really good during his tenure, and he has allowed a lot more freedom in Belgium’s tactics.

What you’ll see in build-up from Belgium is a 4-2-4 with all four of their forwards having the freedom to drop in deep to overload the opposition. They can play short passes through the opposition, but often they look for the switch ball to isolate Jeremy Doku.

The second goal they scored against Wales is a perfect example of that. Here, Trossard drops into the half-space and is immediately able to play a long ball up to Doku in space.

Doku finds Thomas Meunier with a cross because there was so much space behind Wales’ high line.

Basically, the Belgium attack’s slogan is “How can we get the ball to Jeremy Doku?” Anytime he is in space and 1v1 versus a defender, the ball is going to find him.

Not only is he incredible in 1v1s, but he also attracts a ton of attention, which frees space up for all of Belgium’s other attackers. I mean, there are times when teams have to triple-team him because he’s such a good dribbler.

Out of possession, Belgium varies in how aggressively they press. If they do press high, they will do so in a man-to-man fashion, but more often than not, they will fall back into a 4-4-2 mid-to-low block with an emphasis on man-to-man marking.

World Cup Preview: #11 Norway

Unexpected Goals — Sat, 30 May 2026 19:25:10 GMT

Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Norway.

It’s been a long time since Norway appeared at a major international tournament. The talent level has steadily improved over the years, and they are now in the golden age of Norwegian football. The last time Norway appeared in a major international tournament was in 2000 at the Euros. They have also only appeared at the World Cup twice, with their last trip coming in 1998. Everyone should look for this team, as I think they have the potential to make a deep run this summer.

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

#25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

How did they get here?

UEFA World Cup qualifying is split into two rounds. In the first round, all European countries are divided into 12 groups, with the winners of each group automatically qualifying for the World Cup.

Norway shocked many by winning all eight of their qualifying matches and finishing at the top of their World Cup qualifying group ahead of Italy.

Norway Stats

All data is from footystats.org & FotMob

Without a shadow of a doubt, Norway was the best offensive team during World Cup qualifying. They ran up the score against some lower-tier teams like Moldova and Estonia, but they also beat Italy 7-1 on aggregate.

When you look deeper into their numbers, it’s hard not to be wildly impressed by their qualifying campaign.

They led all of qualifying in expected goals and were near the top in a lot of other offensive categories.

All data is from FotMob

Of course, a lot of Norway’s offensive numbers were aided by an 11-1 win over Moldova. Even if you remove that match, they still created 15.67 expected goals in their other seven matches.

What Norway showed in qualifying is incredible versatility because they can beat you in a number of different ways. Against Israel, Moldova, and Estonia, they controlled well over 60% of the ball.

However, over their two matches against Italy, they averaged only 40% of the ball but were still incredibly effective offensively.

Defensively, they are a bit of a passive team, ranking in the middle of Europe in possession won in the final third and near the bottom in tackles + interceptions.

Norway Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

I don’t think anyone would argue that Norway has the best collection of target men up top in this tournament.

This is one of the main reasons I think they have the potential not only for a deep run but also to win it all.

Erling Haaland is the best striker in the world, and this will be his first major international tournament. He scored 38 goals in all competitions and also led the Premier League in xG per 90 minutes at 0.77.

He led UEFA World Cup qualifying with 16 goals, which was eight more than the next closest player.

image via Scout Lab

Norway has two other huge striking partners that are also incredible in the air. It doesn’t matter if it’s Jørgen Strand Larsen or Alexander Sørloth, Norway has the size advantage up front over any team in this World Cup.

That said, their strikers need someone to consistently get them the ball. That is why, outside of Haaland, Martin Ødegaard is so important to the Norwegian side.

He lost his place in Arsenal's starting XI for a while, but he will be the main creator in the middle for Norway. Even losing his place for a while, Ødegaard put up some ridiculous chance creation numbers.

Norway Tactics

For Norway, there are two main tactics to their attack: quick transitions and crosses.

Because they have huge forwards, it makes sense that they mainly look to get the ball out wide and fire the ball into them. Norway has two really good wingers in 1v1s, Oscar Bobb and Antonio Nusa, who can create chances for their forwards.

Norway will press out of their 4-4-2 from goal-kick situations, but outside of that, they typically sit in a mid-to-low block like this.

Once Norway wins the ball, though, they transition as quickly as possible to catch the opposition out of position.

Here, Nusa wins the ball and carries it all the way into the final third to set up a through ball in behind to Sørloth to set up the opening goal against Italy.

What makes Norway so dangerous is not that they are good in transition or on crosses, but they have variability in their build-up. Because Haaland is elite at dropping deep and Ødegaard is elite at dropping deep to build up, Norway is capable of building out of the back and playing through teams.

In addition, because they have such big forwards, they are probably the most effective team in this World Cup, playing direct from the back when teams try to press them high, man-to-man.

Being in a group with France is tough, but Norway is certainly capable of beating any team in this World Cup field with the forwards they have up top.

World Cup Preview: #12 Switzerland

Unexpected Goals — Sat, 30 May 2026 07:31:14 GMT

Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Switzerland.

The Swiss may not have the most talent of some of the teams near the top, but they certainly are one of the most difficult teams to face in knockout football. This is their sixth straight appearance at the World Cup and 13th overall. They’ve made it out of the group stage three straight times and also made it to the quarterfinals at the last two Euros. Are they in store for a similar run at this World Cup?

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

#25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

How did they get here?

UEFA World Cup qualifying is split into two rounds. In the first round, all European countries are divided into 12 groups, with the winners of each group automatically qualifying for the World Cup.

Switzerland fairly comfortably finished at the top of their qualifying group, going unbeaten against Kosovo, Slovenia, and Sweden.

Switzerland Stats

All data is from footystats.org & FotMob

To say Switzerland is a tough team to beat is an understatement. They have only lost one competitive match in regular time since the 2022 World Cup, and it was a meaningless one at the end of Euro qualifying when they had already punched their ticket to the tournament before the match.

Switzerland was incredibly solid at the back during qualifying, allowing only two goals. This is nothing new for them, though, because they’ve been one of the best defensive teams in Europe for a very long time.

Since the 2023 Euro qualifiers, Switzerland has only allowed 0.72 xG per 90 minutes. The only two teams that have allowed fewer runs per game are England and France.

What you’ll find with Switzerland is that their numbers aren’t going to jump off the page, mainly because they do pretty much everything well, and they are a very versatile team.

For example, at the Euros in 2024, they were mainly playing as the underdog, having faced Germany, Italy, and England, and therefore only averaged 46.2%. Then, in qualifying, when they were the favorites, they held 60.2% of the ball and consistently played right through their opponents.

They had England on the ropes in the Euros before losing on penalties, and are a team that nobody wants to see in this World Cup.

Switzerland Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

The same names that you’ve been accustomed to seeing on the Swiss National Team since the 2020 Euros are still around at this World Cup. That is not a bad thing at all because they are one of the few teams at this World Cup that have had the same core for the better part of six years.

Granit Xhaka, even at age 33, is still the key cog in the middle of the Swiss midfield. He had a really good season for Sunderland, leading them to Europa League qualification by consistently controlling the tempo of matches with his passing.

The Swiss have a solid center-back pairing of Manuel Akanji and Nico Elvedi, who are now both in their 30s, but played every minute of qualifying together. In addition, Gregor Kobel is now the new number one in net for Switzerland and is coming off a good shot-stopping season, where he was +6.1 in goals prevented.

While this squad has a lot of experience, one young name who might emerge during this World Cup is 20-year-old Johan Manzambi. He had a brilliant season for Freiburg and was instrumental in their run to the Europa League final. He was one of the best pure ball-winning midfielders in the Bundesliga, and I am sure Murat Yakin is going to have a tough time keeping him out of the Starting XI.

image via Scout Lab

Switzerland Tactics

As I said above, Switzerland is a very versatile team tactically, which is why they’ve been so difficult to beat over the last six years.

There are a lot of different variations that Switzerland gives you in the final third.

You’ll see them at times overload the wide or central areas of the pitch to play short passes through you.

However, even from situations like this, they can still simply target Breel Embolo 1 v 1 against the centerback and send in a cross.

What you’ll also see from Switzerland quite a bit is these switch balls to open up space on one side of the pitch, while also pushing three or four forwards into the box to get on the end of a cross.

Switzerland prefers to build from the back, but their system makes it really easy to be successful at playing direct balls. They will typically build up in a 4-1-5 with Granit Xhaka as the single pivot, looking to either drop forwards in deep to create an overload or play direct balls up to their forwards to simply allow them to win duels and second balls.

Defensively, Switzerland primarily defended from a 5-4-1 at the Euros but has recently switched to a pretty standard 4-4-2 during qualifying.

The point is, they are comfortable playing a couple of different formations, and you’ll likely see them switch tactics based on the opponent they are facing.

World Cup Preview: #13 Colombia

Unexpected Goals — Fri, 29 May 2026 23:00:53 GMT

Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Colombia.

Colombia is back at the World Cup after failing to qualify in 2022. They have been steadily rising and are now pretty close to the levels of Brazil and Argentina. They proved that two summers ago, they made it all the way to the Copa America finals, losing to Argentina on penalties. Are they set for another deep run this summer?

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

#25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

How did they get here?

South American qualifying, without a doubt, is the most difficult of any of the confederations. With only 10 countries, everyone has to go to everyone else twice, and the road conditions are among the most difficult you will see in the world.

World Cup qualifying started all the way back in September of 2023, even before Copa America, so it’s an incredibly long road of 18 matches just to get to the World Cup.

The top six teams at the end of qualifying automatically go to the World Cup, and the seventh-place team goes to the inter-confederation playoffs.

Colombia impressively finished in third place, tied on points with Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay.

Colombia Stats

All data is from footystats.org & FotMob

What is most impressive about this Colombian side is their defense. Their run at Copa America was incredible. No team, including Uruguay, Brazil, and Argentina, created more than 1 expected goal against them, and overall for the tournament, they allowed only 3.21 expected goals.

During World Cup qualifying, they allowed 1.14 xG per 90 minutes, and much of their defensive success stems from how physical and intense their pressing is.

Offensively, they were the best team in South America during World Cup qualifying. They created 27.2 expected goals in their 18 matches, which was 5.5 more than both Argentina and Brazil.

All data is from FotMob

As you can see, Colombia is a team that relies heavily on crosses into the box. In addition to these impressive offensive numbers, they also scored five goals at the Copa America directly from set pieces. So, this team is incredibly dangerous at every phase of their attack.

Colombia Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

Moving to Bayern Munich turned out to be the best thing for Luis Diaz. He had the best season of his career, scoring 25 goals and dishing out 19 assists in all competitions.

His elite ball carrying and having the ability to create chances from it, whether it be for himself or others, is what sets him apart from most wingers in Europe’s top five leagues.

image via Scout Lab

He is the focal point of this Colombian attack on the left wing. During World Cup qualifying, he led Colombia with 7 goals and took 56 shots, accounting for 23% of their total shots.

James Rodriguez has been the focal point of the Colombian attack for a long time, but this will probably be his last World Cup, considering he is now 34 years old.

The other crucial player to Colombia’s attack, in my opinion, is Daniel Munoz. The reason I say that is because he is one of the best crossers from the fullback position in Europe’s top five leagues.

He is constantly pushing forward in Colombia’s attack to deliver crosses into the box and is a big reason for the most accurate crosses in South America.

Colombia Tactics

Colombia is a really aggressive possession team. They are looking to get the ball moving forward as quickly as possible, similar to Uruguay.

When they are in settled possession, they will build up in a 4-2, but the main goal is to play a lot of direct balls in behind.

They use James Rodriguez as the roaming ‘10’ to allow him to get on the ball and create most of their chances.

Here, against Argentina, he drops in deep and immediately looks to play the ball over the top to set up a decent shot.

When Colombia enters the final third against low blocks, the main aim is to overload the wide areas to isolate Luis Diaz 1 v 1 and set up a cross.

Colombia doesn’t really have a defined defensive shape. I guess you could say they initially play in a 4-4-2 or 4-3-3, but they are a strict man-to-man marking team across the pitch.

That means when you play them, it really comes down to those individual matchups. That is why Colombia is so difficult to play against: they are so physical and good at man-to-man defense; it can be really difficult not only to play through them but also to play over the top.

That is why they reached the final of Copa America and finished third in qualifying.

World Cup Preview: #14 Uruguay

Unexpected Goals — Fri, 29 May 2026 19:30:22 GMT

Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Uruguay.

The two-time World Cup champions are making their 15th appearance, but 2010 was the last time they made it past the Round of 16. They are coming into this World Cup off an impressive qualifying campaign and a third-place finish at the Copa America. They have a pretty easy path out of the group stage, so can Uruguay make a run similar to the one they made in 2010?

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

#25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

How did they get here?

World Cup qualifying started all the way back in September of 2023, even before Copa America, so it’s an incredibly long road of 18 matches just to get to the World Cup.

The top six teams at the end of qualifying automatically go to the World Cup, and the seventh-place team goes to the inter-confederation playoffs.

Uruguay impressively finished in fourth place, tied on points with Colombia and Brazil.

Uruguay Stats

All data is from Footystats.org

Uruguay has a very direct style of play, but throughout qualifying in South America, their opponents' physicality limited them offensively.

In their 12 World Cup qualifying matches after Copa America, they only created 12.48 expected goals and failed to create over one expected goal in eight of those matches.

There are two things offensively that you are going to get from Uruguay: a lot of long balls and crosses.

At Copa America, Uruguay led the field, averaging 28 accurate long balls per match and also averaged the second-most accurate crosses.

Defensively, Marcelo Bielsa has transformed Uruguay into a team built around his famous tactical system. They are going to come at you, pressing high the whole match. They were second in World Cup qualifying in tackles per match and third in interceptions. In addition to that, they were in the top three in possession won in the final third, highlighting the effectiveness of their press.

image via FotMob

The one concern with Uruguay is that they press so aggressively that they can leave themselves open to getting hit on the break. After the Copa America, they allowed 15.28 expected goals over those 12 matches, which was among the highest marks in South America.

Uruguay Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

Note: This is the projected squad, not the official one.

The main man that this entire tournament hinges on for Uruguay is Federico Valverde. He was one of Real Madrid’s most important players this season, playing a number of different positions and roles.

He had success at right back and even played right wing, scoring a hat trick against Manchester City in the Champions League.

For Uruguay, he will be the main man in the midfield, playing the number eight role and creating most of their chances in attack.

image via Scout Lab

The question mark for Uruguay, in my opinion, is what are you going to get out of Darwin Nunez up top? He obviously flopped at Liverpool and moved to the Saudi Pro League with Al-Hilal.

He underperformed at the club level, averaging 0.40 goals per 90 minutes, but his non-penalty xG per 90 minutes was 0.61. He’s had a finishing problem for a very long time now, and if he’s not finishing at a high level for Uruguay in this tournament, I question how far they can actually go.

image via Best11Scouting

He’s perfect for Bielsa’s system because he is a transition striker and an elite aerial threat in the box.

For Uruguay, their success in attack really comes down to Valverde and Nunez because those two accounted for 30% of their shots during World Cup qualifying.

Uruguay Tactics

Marcelo Bielsa’s system can be insanely effective given the right group of players and I believe he has that with the Uruguayan National Team.

When you play Uruguay, you better be ready for an up and down physical battle.

Out of possession, they love to press out of a midblock, closing off the middle of the pitch and forcing you beat them over the top. They have a ton of pace and really tough, experienced centerbacks on their back line, so it can be really difficult to create chances against them.

In possession they one of the few teams in this World Cup that no matter the opponent they are going to get the ball from back to front as quick as possible.

They love to play direct, but can also play out of the back pretty effectively. It’s typically a 4-1 base and the main purpose is to create numerical advantages out wide.

Even when they do build up it’s a lot of quick one touch passes rather than slow sustained build up because Bielsa is not interested in control.

In terms of a shape out of possession, it has varied for Bielsa since he’s been in charge. At times it can be a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-2-2, but mainly Uruguay sticks to man to man concepts, so a lot of their matches simply come down winning 1 v 1 matchups.

World Cup Preview: #15 Ecuador

Unexpected Goals — Fri, 29 May 2026 07:02:53 GMT

Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Ecuador.

This is Ecuador’s fifth appearance at the World Cup, having only made it past the group stage one time. Ecuador has been on a resurgence over the last five years, truly becoming one of the better teams in South America. They are battle-tested, having advanced through World Cup qualifying, and will be a really tough out in this tournament.

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

#25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

How did they get here?

World Cup qualifying started all the way back in September of 2023, even before Copa America, so it’s an incredibly long road of 18 matches just to get to the World Cup.

The top six teams at the end of qualifying automatically go to the World Cup, and the seventh-place team goes to the inter-confederation playoffs.

Ecuador impressively finished in second place, even with a three-point deduction for fielding an ineligible player.

Ecuador Stats

All data is from Footystats.org

The most impressive thing about Ecuador is, without a doubt, their defense. They kept 13 clean sheets in 18 matches and conceded only 5 goals throughout qualifying.

Now, with that being said, to say they ran hot would be an understatement. They conceded 18.46 expected goals from those five goals conceded. Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia all allowed fewer expected goals than Ecuador, so negative regression might hit them at the worst time.

Offensively, they really struggled to create chances throughout qualifying. They only averaged 1.03 xG per 90 minutes and failed to create more than one expected goal in 11 of their 18 matches.

So, what that means is Ecuador had a +0.1 xGD, which is far lower than their actual goal differential of +9.

They are a very direct team, averaging the second-most accurate long balls per 90 minutes, but also hold possession on average (55%).

By nature, Ecuador is a passive team that will mainly sit back in a low block. At Copa America in 2024, they averaged the second-most clearances and also had the third-lowest amount of possession won in the final third.

Ecuador Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

Note: This is the projected squad, not the official one.

Ecuador's talent lies in its defense, especially in the middle.

Moises Caicedo has been brilliant for Chelsea this season and remains one of the best ball-winning midfielders in the world. With such a premium placed on playing through the middle these days, having an elite ball-winner is crucial.

Among Premier League midfielders, Caicedo led all of them in tackles + interceptions this season.

image via Scout Lab

The main reason why Ecuador is so good defensively is that they have one of the best center-back pairings in this tournament. William Pacho has become incredibly important in PSG’s starting XI because of his physical presence and ability to win aerial duels.

Piero Hincapié became Arsenal’s main left back in their title-winning campaign, but can play a number of different positions across the back line. He has experience playing as a center back from his days at Leverkusen, so it’s going to be really difficult for any team to not only play through the middle but also beat Ecuador with crosses because Hincapié is also elite at winning aerial duels.

Ecuador Tactics

There were a lot of 0-0 draws in Ecuador's qualifying because every match turned into a rock fight. What you’ll find when you watch Ecuador is that there really isn’t a lot of settled possession.

They want to get into an up-and-down match because I would say they are one of the best, if not the best, transition defenses in this tournament.

They typically don’t press high up the pitch, and when they do fall back, it’s a very low defensive line, usually in a 4-4-2 shape, but they’ve also defended out of a 5-3-2 during qualifying as well.

Because it’s very low and they don’t allow any space in between the lines, they basically are daring teams to try and beat them over the top.

Offensively, they are extremely direct and mainly trying to get the ball out wide to send in a cross.

In settled possession, you are likely going to see a lot of balls over the top to their forwards like this rather than trying to play short passes through the opposition.

When the ball gets closer to the goal, Ecuador usually tries to create wide triangles or, as in this example, gets the ball out wide to one of their two fullbacks, who push up to aid the attack and send in a cross.

There really isn’t much talent in this Ecuador attack, and they will be relying on a 38-year-old Enner Valencia to be their main man up top.

World Cup Preview: #16 USA

Unexpected Goals — Fri, 29 May 2026 01:00:15 GMT

Continuing to preview each of the 48 teams in the World Cup today, we are taking a deeper look at my home country, the United States of America.

The United States comes into this World Cup not in the greatest form since their Round of 16 exit at the 2022 World Cup. They have failed to win either of the Gold Cups, lost the latest CONCACAF Nations League, and have been soundly beaten in friendlies by a number of different nations.

Since the very first World Cup in 1930, the United States has never made it past the Round of 16. Can the host nation shock the world and make a deep run?

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

#25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

How did they get here?

Because the United States is one of the three host nations alongside Mexico and Canada, it automatically qualified for the World Cup.

USA Stats

All data is from Footystats.org

The data for the United States is not good, and the problem I have when analyzing the competitive matches is that there have been so few under Mauricio Pochettino that featured the full squad you are going to see at the World Cup.

A majority of the United States’ key players did not play in the Gold Cup this past summer, and a few were missing from the CONCACAF Nations League.

The United States went on a good run of friendly results before getting hammered by Belgium and Portugal in March.

All data is from Footystats.org & FotMob

As you can see, the United States has held its own and even controlled a majority of the possession against most teams, but the matches against Belgium and Portugal are really concerning for their chances at the World Cup.

The question that naturally comes up is how much Mauricio Pochettino has improved the USMNT.

Looking at his 10 non-friendly matches in charge compared to Gregg Berhaltar’s final 10 matches in charge, there really isn’t much of a difference between the two managers.

All data is from WyScout

USA Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

A majority of the United States roster plays for some of the top clubs across Europe, which is encouraging, but their overall squad value is nowhere near that of some of the top teams in this World Cup.

The main man is still Captain America, Christian Pulisic.

He is coming off a bit of a down year at AC Milan in terms of overall production, with 10 goals and four assists. However, those numbers do not tell the entire story. He moved over to play more as a left winger this season, but still put up some of the best underlying numbers in Serie A compared to other wingers in the league.

image via Scout Lab

The attack will also hinge on the type of production they get from the striker position. Folrian Balogun should, without a doubt, be the main striker up top for Pochettino. He had a really productive season for Monaco in Ligue 1, scoring 19 goals in all competitions and posting a 0.54 xG per 90-minute rate.

.You could go to a number of different players in terms of importance, but for me, the success of the United States team is anchored by Weston McKennie.

He can play any role needed in the midfield and is truly the definition of an all-around midfielder. He’s been at Juventus for a number of seasons, and this year, in terms of defending, was one of the best in Serie A.

He, along with Tyler Adams are really going to be the key to how far the United States goes in this tournament.

USA Tactics

If you want to check it out, I did a tactical analysis of the United States last summer for Tactical Football Analysis.

I’ll be using some examples from that, along with my tactical analysis of their loss to Panama in the CONCACAF Nations League, and their previous two matches against Belgium and Portugal.

The United States is more than likely going to hold a lot of possession during the group stage, so let’s look at how they build up against a passive defensive block.

Typically, the United States will build up in a 3-2-5, emphasizing overload in the middle to isolate either their fullbacks or one of the wingers out wide.

What will be interesting in this World Cup is how Pochettino uses Pulisic. Typically as the ‘10’ you would expect him to roam the central parts of the pitch, but he’s actually been much better playing as a right winger for the United States.

Here’s an example of his last non-friendly match for the USMNT.

The United States is able to create a 3v2 out wide against Panama’s 5-4-1. Tanner Tessmann pulls the center back out, creating space for Weston McKennie to run in behind and find Josh Sargent with a cross that ends up hitting the bar.

You’ll also see the United States overloading one side of the pitch to play a switch ball to the opposite end of the pitch to create a 1 v 1 or 2 v 1 situation.

This is where using Pulisic in more of a right-wing role could be helpful for the United States, allowing him to go 1v1.

Defensively, I think the United States has some issues to sort out. The 5-2 loss to Belgium was pretty bad, as the Belgians exploited a weakness in the United States’ defense.

Jon Mackenzie of the Athletic does a nice breakdown here.

The United States will typically defend out of a 4-4-2. They will press out of this shape, but I would imagine given what we saw in their two friendlies against Belgium and Portugal, that they will be defending in more of a midblock.

World Cup Preview: #17 Japan

Unexpected Goals — Thu, 28 May 2026 17:08:06 GMT

Continuing on with previewing each of the 48 teams in the World Cup today, we are taking a deeper look at Japan.

This is Japan's 8th straight appearance at the World Cup. They made headlines in Qatar, finishing at the top of their group with wins over both Germany and Spain. They lost on penalties to Croatia in the Round of 16, but they showed their progression as the best team from the Asian Confederation. They are bringing even more talent to this World Cup and could shock the world once again.

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

#25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

How did they get here?

Asian World Cup qualifying consists of essentially five rounds.

Japan was placed in an easy group with North Korea, Syria, and Myanmar. They were literally perfect, winning all six matches by a combined score of 24-0.

Second Round Qualifying

They were again drawn into what I would say was one of the harder third-round qualifying groups. Japan, though, comfortably topped the group by four points over Australia to qualify once again for the World Cup.

Third Round Qualifying

Japan Stats

All data is from Footystats.org

Here is the problem when you look at the stats from qualifying for a team like Japan. They were insanely impressive, posting a +25.6 expected goal differential over their 16 qualifying matches, but the average rank of their opponents (based on my rankings) is 122.

With that being said, since World Cup qualifying ended, Japan has recognized that they need to test themselves and has scheduled very difficult opponents for friendlies. Since they lost 2-0 to the United States in September, they have not lost a match and have beaten both Brazil and England along the way.

image via ESPN

Like I have mentioned plenty of times throughout these previews, you have to take friendlies with a grain of salt. However, when evaluating a team like Japan it is somewhat relevant since they didn’t face difficult competition during qualifying.

Japan Friendly Stats

All data is from FotMob

What is most impressive about Japan is that they can dominate matches, holding 70% of the ball against a team like Myanmar or 30% against a team like Brazil. That is what makes them incredibly dangerous in a knockout tournament like this.

Japan Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

I would say the 2022 World Cup was one of the first times that most of Japan’s players were playing abroad. This time around, pretty much their entire roster is playing for top clubs, which shows their progression as a footballing nation.

Japan has suffered a big blow on the injury front with Kaoru Mitoma picking up a hamstring injury that left him out of Hajime Moriyasu’s squad.

However, there is still considerable depth and talent in the Japanese attack. The main man who will be creating most of their chances is Takefusa Kubo.

He played only 16.7 90s for Real Sociedad this season, with only six goal involvements. However, when you look at his chance-creation numbers, especially from carries, he was one of the best wingers in La Liga.

image via Scout Lab

The difference for Japan this time around, as opposed to the last World Cup, is that they have a ruthless finisher up top in Ayase Ueda.

He won the golden boot in the Eredivisie this season for Feyenoord, scoring 25 goals, eight more than the next-closest player. He overperformed based on his underlying numbers, scoring 0.89 goals per 90 minutes while having only a 0.67 xG per 90-minute rate.

He is a big-time poacher and elite with his positioning around the box.

Japan Tactics

Japan is one the quickest and most intense teams in this World Cup field. They are going to keep coming at you over and over again until they eventually break you. What makes them so good is they are uber aggressive in and out of possession and also they don’t care how much of the ball they see.

The big thing with Japan is they are going to try and play through you rather than trying to play direct.

Here against Australia they are trying overload them centrally and because of an aggressive pass through the middle, it opened up a transition break.

When the reach the final third, they use realtionism concepts, trying to get as many players close to the ball to quickly play right through the opposition.

When they build up, they use a pretty similar structure to that of Unai Emery’s Aston Villa. It’s a 4-2 base and they like to drop in a forward and use their midfielders movement to get the ball back centrally to create a quick transition break.

Defensively, Japan is going to press high man to man and will more than likely lead the World Cup field in high turnovers. They are going to force the opposition to play the ball over the top on them, which hasn’t really worked for most of the teams they faced.

When they win the ball they transition quickly and will punish you, which is what they did to England when they beat them 1-0.

The way to beat Japan is you have to fight fire with fire. You have to match their intensity, but also they are not a very big or physical team, so when you have set piece opportunities or when you play directly against them, you better win your 1 v 1 matchups.

Champions League Final Preview: PSG vs. Arsenal

Unexpected Goals — Thu, 28 May 2026 08:31:16 GMT

It all comes down to this: PSG is going for back-to-back Champions League titles, while Arsenal looks to cap off a historic season with its first-ever Champions League trophy.

This is a rematch of last year's semifinals, when PSG beat Arsenal on aggregate 3-1. Both teams are celebrating domestic titles, but the aim is now on winning the most important trophy in club football.

PSG dominated their way all the way to the semifinals before playing out one of the most thrilling ties with Bayern Munich to reach the final. Along the way there were 34 goals scored over their four ties with Monaco, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Bayern Munich.

Arsenal was the exact opposite. They grinded their way to the final, beating Leverkusen 3-1, Sporting CP 1-0, and Atletico Madrid 2-1.

It’s a contrast of two completely different tactical philosophies, which makes for an incredibly interesting final.

Let’s dive into the tactical battle between Luis Enrique and Mikel Arteta.

PSG in Possession vs. Arsenal out of Possession

There are so many fascinating aspects of this match, and it starts with how Arsenal will defend PSG. In last year's semifinal, they pressed high man-to-man, and PSG used Dembele as a false nine to hurt them.

In the first leg, PSG went up early because they used a very interesting tactic that we haven’t seen too often from Enrique this season. He pushed five guys up to Arsenal’s last line of defense, which created an overload.

What I want you to notice is PSG overloading four guys on the right-hand side. What that did was pin Kiwor to Neves, which allowed Dembele to drop in to receive the ball.

With time and space to carry the ball, PSG have a free run at Arsenal with a numerical advantage.

Dembele is able to draw in an Arsenal defender, while Ruiz makes a run to drag Timber with him to free up Kvaratskhelia out wide to get 1 v 1 against Timber.

Kvaratskhelia drew Rice into helping Timber, which freed up space for a pass to Dembele, who rifled it into the perfect spot.

After that goal, Arsenal went strict man to man and followed Dembele wherever he went.

This is interesting because PSG uses so many positional rotations, it can really pull teams out of position to create 1 v 1 matchups for their forwards.

Take this example against Bayern Munich. Because Vincent Kompany’s side is a strict man to man team, it can leave defenders all over the place, which leaves you exposed if you can’t close down the ball.

With all of that being said, if Arsenal decides to mainly press man to man, which I think they will do, they should have quite a bit of success turning PSG over.

Between the two legs last year, Arsenal forced 60 danger zone losses with 36 coming in the second leg when they were playing from behind.

image via markstatsbot on X

Against PSG you either have to come right at them aggressively or you have to sit in a extreme low block. If you get caught in between, that is when they will punish you.

It hasn’t happened often this season, but when Arsenal is in a situation where they are defending a lead, it’s incredibly difficult to breakdown their 4-4-2 low block.

Probably one of the most impressive stats from Arsenal this season is just how good they are defending a lead. They have spent almost 1,000 minutes defending a one goal lead this season and are only allowing 0.76 xG per 90 minutes.

Arsenal xG by Game State

image via understat.com

One of the other impressive stats from Arsenal is since January of 2024, only one team (Manchester United on January 25th, 2026) has scored more than two goals against the Gunners. They are the best defensive team in the world and are absolutely capable of shutting PSG completely down because they did it last year considering PSG only created 1.97 xG from open play over the two legs.

Arsenal in Possession vs. PSG out of Possession

We know exactly how PSG are going to defend in this match. They are going to aggressively press Arsenal man to man, so it will be really interesting to see how much control Arteta wants.

Arsenal have been typically building up with Rice or Zubimendi as the single pivot with the opposite pushing up a little further into the half space.

They are similar to PSG in the fact that they will use positional rotations as well, it’s simply going to come down to how much risk Arteta is willing to take on.

One thing that has been happening quite a bit with PSG is Marquinhos has been forced out wide to defend a winger because Hakimi has push forward to press the opposite fullback. Chelsea and Bayern Munich tried to exploit this matchup and Arsenal did something similar in the first leg last year.

Arsenal recognized that Marquinhos was tasked with marking Martinelli, so he makes a run centrally to pull Marquinhos with him, which frees up acres of space out wide for Trossard to run into and almost puts it in the back of the net.

Knowing Mikel’s philosophy, my guess is, at least early on, you are going to see Arsenal playing a lot of direct balls up to either Havertz or Gyökeres and positioning Rice and Eze to win the second ball.

Now, it’s time to talk about the fun stuff: Set Pieces.

This is going to be by far the biggest advantage in the match for either side. PSG has a massive size disadvantage to Arsenal and the Gunners were really unlucky not to score from a set piece in either leg of the semifinals last year.

Arsenal had this set piece VAR’d off, but it’s a good example of how using their back post overload and late run up caused PSG a lot of problems.

Because PSG is not a physically dominant team, this is how you have to beat them.

Between the Premier League and Champions League, Arsenal has scored 28 set piece goals from 26.7 expected goals. Arsenal created 1.05 xG over the two legs from set pieces against PSG.

The one thing that I don’t think people realize about Arsenal is they have been an effective team playing direct. Every team knows the way to slow them down is to sit in a low compact block, but the Gunners had the third most direct attacks and were tied with Bournemouth for the most goals from them as well.

image via Opta the Analyst

Conclusion

This is going to be an incredibly fascinating match between two completely different tactical philosophies.

PSG is going to try and speed up the tempo, while Arsenal is going to try and slow it down.

The amount of possession each team holds in this match is going to be key. Even though Arteta wants to play conservative, he can’t put his team in a similar position that Liverpool was in when they lost to PSG 2-0 in Paris. In that match PSG held 70% of the ball and Liverpool couldn’t even get the ball out of their own end of the pitch.

Arsenal has to be brave building out of the back against PSG’s man to man press and most importantly, take advantage of the space in behind when they do break the press.

Too many times throughout this season Arsenal hasn’t gone for the throat and instead relied on set pieces to win them matches.

They will have a huge advantage on those in this match and in my opinion that is going to be the biggest difference in the match.

Thank you all for reading all of my Champions League content this season and enjoy the final!

PSG vs. Arsenal Win Probability

PSG vs. Arsenal to Lift the Trophy

World Cup Preview: #18 Austria

Unexpected Goals — Thu, 28 May 2026 07:31:25 GMT

Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Austria.

This is the eighth appearance for Austria at the World Cup, but it’s been a long time since they’ve been here. The last time Austria was on this stage was in 1998. Ralf Rangnick has revitalized the Austrian National team over the last couple of years, especially after they topped their Euro group ahead of France and the Netherlands. Can they do the same this summer in a group with the defending champions, Argentina?

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

#25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

How did they get here?

UEFA World Cup qualifying is split into two rounds. In the first round, all European countries are divided into 12 groups, with the winners of each group automatically qualifying for the World Cup.

Austria were highly impressive, winning six of their eight matches, outscoring their opponents 22 to 4 to top the group by two points over Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Austria Stats

All data is from Footystats.org

Austria had a very impressive qualifying campaign, but it was aided by a couple of blowouts against San Mario. In their other six matches against Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cyprus, and Romania, they had only a +2.17 xGD.

With that being said, the numbers for Ralf Rangnick’s side all hinge on how effective their press is.

During qualifying, Austria (along with Spain) led all European teams in winning possession in the final third.

image via FotMob

Their press drives not only many of their defensive numbers but also their offensive numbers.

What it does is not only allow Austria to create easy transition opportunities but also tilt the field on their opponents by constantly winning the ball in their third.

Austria averaged 64.2% possession during qualifying, the sixth-highest in Europe, highlighting how they are evolving tactically under Rangnick.

Austria Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

Note: This is the projected roster, not the official one.

Austria has one heck of a midfield that can really compete with any team in the world. They recently switched Carney Chukwuemeka's allegiance from England. He was a mainstay in the Dortmund midfield this season and fits so well with Ralf Rangnick’s system.

He was the best central midfielder at winning duels and as a progressive passer.

image via Scout Lab

The striking options up top are a bit of an issue for Austria, but they do have many talented attacking midfielders, led by Christoph Baumgartner.

He’s been one of Austria’s best players for a long time and is coming off the best club season of his career, scoring 13 goals and dishing out eight assists for RB Leipzig.

He was one of the best attacking midfielders in the Bundesliga this season, putting up insane shooting numbers.

Austria Tactics

When you watch Austria, they play some beautiful football. It is free-flowing, there are a lot of positional rotations, and they play quick one-touch passes right through a low block that makes you think you are watching Spain.

They were forced to play this way during qualifying because they are really good in transition, but everyone knew that, so they did not want to leave themselves exposed, which is the main reason why Austria held such a high amount of possession.

Rangnick is a really good tactical manager because he is really versatile. Austria will typically build up with a single pivot in the midfield to try to overload the opponent’s back line.

From this, their forwards can all drop into pockets of space or easily play direct balls over the top.

When they reach the final third, they will overload any part of the pitch where they believe they can exploit the opposition.

When they do get these overloads, they are not like Arsenal, for example, and are very conservative with their passing. They are as aggressive as I’ve seen at the international level in trying to aggressively play through opponents.

This sequence against Bosnia and Herzegovina is a good example of that, where two quick passes open up a shot at the top of the 18-yard box for Konrad Laimer.

They are so aggressive because their counter-press is so good. The reward is far greater than the risk, Rangnick’s eyes, and it’s what makes Austria so difficult to play against.

Typically, Austria uses a hybrid press: they initially line up in a 4-4-2, and then, once the ball goes wide, they jump into a man-to-man press like this against Romania.

Austria has a pretty easy route out of the group, and they are going to be a pain to play against for any team in this World Cup.

World Cup Preview: #19 Morocco

Unexpected Goals — Wed, 27 May 2026 18:01:29 GMT

Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Morocco.

Morocco shocked the world at the last World Cup, making it all the way to the semifinals, beating two of the best teams in the world, Spain and Portugal, along the way. Since the 2022 World Cup, they have been dominating African qualifying, but have come up short in the last two Africa Cup of Nations. They have loads of talent, but some uncertainty in the dugout that may hinder them at this tournament.

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

#25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

How did they get here?

African World Cup qualifying is really difficult. All countries are split into groups of six, with the top team in each group automatically qualifying for the World Cup and the top four second-place teams advancing to a second-round playoff.

Morocco was perfect in one of the easier World Cup qualifying groups that was filled with off-the-field issues. Eritrea withdrew before the qualifiers started, the Congo had issues with their FA that forced them to forfeit a few matches, but Morocco won all eight of their matches and outscored their opponents 22-2.

Morocco Stats

All data is from Footystats.org

Morocco obviously dominated everyone in their World Cup qualifying group. They finished with a +12.69 xGD and averaged 2.07 xG per 90 minutes. However, I would say that their AFCON matches this winter are far more relevant than what happened in World Cup qualifying.

When you look at Morocco’s stats from AFCON, they really weren’t that dominant. First off, of the nine goals they scored at the tournament, four of them came from set pieces. Also, they were awarded three penalties along the way.

They also weren’t near the top of the tournament in terms of possession, accurate passes, or even expected goals.

When you dive into all of their individual matches, you’ll find that they actually weren’t that great from open play and were pretty reliant on set pieces.

All data is from FotMob

While their AFCON run wasn’t as dominant as most people think, Senegal is the only team they’ve played since the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations that is at this World Cup.

Based on my rankings, their average opponent rank is 117. In addition, they have had a new manager for only three months, so there are a lot of question marks about Morocco coming into this World Cup.

Morocco Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

Morocco is the most talented team in Africa, with some players playing at the highest level of football.

Their attack runs through Brahim Diaz, who was instrumental in their run to the final at AFCON this winter. He led the tournament with five goals, was second in xG on target, and second to Victor Osimhen in total expected goals created.

This season, he found it difficult to get into the Real Madrid starting XI. When he did, his numbers were above average, but nowhere near elite.

image via Scout Lab

The other obvious key to Morocco’s attack and their progression from the back is Achraf Hakimi. He has been instrumental for PSG for a number of years at right back, and a majority of Morocco’s attacks come down the right-hand side of the pitch because of his elite chance creation ability.

He led Morocco in assists during World Cup qualifying and also tied Michael Olise for the most assists in the Champions League this year.

Morocco Tactics

Morocco has gone through some turmoil since the Africa Cup of Nations final. Their long-time manager, Walid Regragui, stepped down after the tournament, but Morocco made an internal hire, promoting Mohamed Ouahbi from the Morocco U23 team to the National team.

Ouahbi is more than likely going to be out of his element, considering he’s only managed at the youth level throughout his career. However, because Morocco made an internal hire so close to the World Cup, I don’t think you’ll see a major tactical change from what we saw at the Africa Cup of Nations.

What has tended to happen for Morocco in Africa is that when they are unable to play through the middle, they create passing triangles out wide to try and send crosses into the box.

You can see here, against Tanzania, Hakimi is hugging the touchline, and Diaz is operating in the half-space. Diaz was able to beat his man 1 v 1 and score on the near post for their lone goal.

When Morocco does build up, though, it is typically very narrow. You can see from a couple of examples here that their wingers are typically tucked into the half space, and what they are really trying to do is get them 1 v 1 against the opposing fullback.

Once they reach the final third, it is typically a 2-3-5 shape, with the main emphasis on overloading the opposition on their back line. Typically in Africa, even when teams defend in a back five, Morocco is much more talented and can win 1 v 1 matchups.

That is not going to be the case at the World Cup, and they really haven’t been in a position where they’ve had to play low block counter-attacking football as they did in their run to the semifinals in Qatar.

With a new manager and some questionable performances against the better teams in Africa, I would be hesitant to say Morocco could make a deep run as they did at the last tournament.

World Cup Preview: #32 Egypt - #25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

Unexpected Goals — Wed, 27 May 2026 07:31:08 GMT

Today, we continue the podcast, previewing every World Cup team before the tournament starts on June 11th.

These podcasts will be in groups of eight, starting with my lowest-ranked teams and eventually moving up to my highest-rated teams.

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

Today, we are taking a look at Egypt, Canada, Iran, Mexico, the Ivory Coast, Scotland, Senegal, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

Stay tuned to my Substack, where I post team previews daily.

#Egypt #Canada #Iran #Mexico #Ivory Coast #Scotland #Senegal, #Bosnia Herzegovina #WorldCup #FIFAWorldCup #GroupA #GroupB #GroupC #GroupE #GroupG #GroupI

World Cup Preview: #20 Czech Republic

Unexpected Goals — Wed, 27 May 2026 07:01:39 GMT

Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at the Czech Republic.

This is the Czech Republic's 10th appearance at the World Cup, but they haven’t been here since 2006. They took the long route to get here, winning both of their playoff matches on penalties, knocking out one of the better teams in Europe, Denmark. They are in a favorable group, so can the Czechs make a surprising run this summer?

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

How did they get here?

UEFA World Cup qualifying is split into two rounds. In the first round, all European countries are divided into 12 groups, with the winners of each group automatically qualifying for the World Cup.

The Czech Republic finished second in their qualifying group, two points behind Croatia, and qualified for the second-round playoffs.

They were drawn to play Ireland in the first round, scoring an 87th-minute goal to send it to extra time, and then eventually won on penalties.

In the second round, they pulled off a massive upset. It took penalties again, but they beat the Danes to reach the World Cup.

Czech Republic Stats

All data is from Footystats.org

The Czech Republic is a little better than most people give them credit for, but there is one thing I need to highlight with them in qualifying. They finished with a +7.52 xGD in their eight matches, which sounds really good.

However, Gibraltar is one of the three worst teams in Europe. If you remove their two matches, they only had a +1.29 xGD against Croatia, Montenegro, and the Faroe Islands. In addition to that, 15 of their 37 big scoring chances came against Gibraltar.

Some of these stats are a bit skewed, but I want to highlight that the Czech Republic is maybe the most cross-heavy team in this World Cup.

Czech Republic World Cup Qualifying Offensive Stats

All data is from FotMob & is on a per 90-minute basis

As you can see, their 8.1 accurate crosses per 90 minutes were the third highest in World Cup qualifying among the 54 teams in Europe.

Even in their non-Gibraltar matches, the Czech Republic averaged 1.60 xG per 90 minutes.

The major concern for the Czech Republic is that they have not defended well against strong competition. Denmark really should have beaten them in the playoff, and Croatia hammered them in one of the two meetings.

In total, across their two playoff matches (both of which went to extra time), the Czech Republic created only 0.86 xG from open play.

Czech Republic Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

Compared to most of the European teams in this World Cup, the Czech Republic is on the lower end in terms of squad value.

If you are going to be a cross-heavy team, you'd better have an elite aerial target in the box, and the Czech Republic has that in Patrik Schick.

He went through a dip in his production for a couple of seasons, but has really found his form over the last two years. In the last two seasons, he has scored 49 goals in all competitions for Leverkusen.

He’s an amazing aerial target in the box and was one of the best in the Bundesliga this season at winning aerial duels.

image via Scout Lab

What the Czech Republic has been missing at the last couple of tournaments is a creator in the middle of the pitch. Of course, they cross the ball a ton, but that can get very predictable.

Pavel Sulc is that presence in the middle of the pitch for the Czech Republic. In his first season at Lyon after making a move from the Czech First League, he scored 11 goals and put up some really impressive numbers.

image via Scout Lab

Czech Republic Tactics

This is basically all the Czech Republic tries to do in possession. It’s a 4-1-5 build up circulating the ball from side to side trying to create wide triangles to eventually free up space out wide to send a cross into the box.

The Czech Republic is a decent transition team, but they are slow when they do transition forward.

They will play a high amount of long balls from the back up to their forwards and have no problem relying on winning second balls to reduce the risk of turning the ball in their own third of the pitch. For example, in their match against Denmark, goalkeeper Matej Kovár completed only 2 of his 30 attempted passes.

When out of possession, the Czech Republic will defend in a 5-3-2, but it’s a man-heavy system. That can really lead them into a lot of problems, as they can get pulled out of position by teams that either drop forwards deep or use positional rotations.

That also means they are pretty reliant on winning 1 v 1 matchups. That was a problem against Denmark because they got dominated.

Czech Republic vs. Denmark Duels

image via FotMob

That is the worry for the Czech Republic at this World Cup. If they can’t win the physical battle against Mexico, South Africa, and South Korea, they are in trouble.

World Cup Preview: #21 Paraguay

Unexpected Goals — Tue, 26 May 2026 18:01:26 GMT

Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Paraguay.

This is Paraguay’s ninth appearance at the World Cup, but their first appearance since 2010. Paraguay has been near the bottom of South America for a long time, but recently has had a massive resurgence under Gustavo Alfaro. If they are healthy heading into their opening match against the United States, they are one of my dark-horse teams to potentially make a deep run in this World Cup.

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

#24 Sweden

#23 Turkey

#22 South Korea

How did they get here?

World Cup qualifying started all the way back in September of 2023, even before Copa America, so it’s an incredibly long road of 18 matches just to get to the World Cup.

The top six teams at the end of qualifying automatically go to the World Cup, and the seventh-place team goes to the inter-confederation playoffs.

Paraguay finished in sixth place, but was tied on points with Colombia, Brazil, and Uruguay.

Paraguay Stats

All data is from Footystats.org

Do not take this Paraguayan side lightly because they have some really big-name wins under their belt. They beat both Argentina and Brazil during World Cup qualifying, and since Alfaro took over (after Copa América), they have lost only one match.

They were one of only four teams with a positive expected goal differential in the World Cup qualifiers held after Copa América.

They are so good because of their defense. Since Alfaro took over, they have only allowed 1.01 xG per 90 minutes and also allowed one of the lowest xG per shot.

The thing about Paraguay, though, is that no team entering this World Cup has played a more difficult schedule than them.

Based on my rankings, the average rank of their opponent faced is 32. If you compare that to a team like Japan, which has put up these unreal underlying numbers in World Cup qualifying, but their average rank faced is 122.

My point is that Paraguay's +0.12 xGD since Alfaro took over is incredibly impressive when you put it in the context of how difficult their schedule was.

Paraguay Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

Note: This is the projected roster, not the official one.

There is some pretty decent talent across the Paraguayan side. Most of their players are playing in South America, but a few are playing in Europe.

One of those is Julio Enciso, who is their best attacking player. He’s moved around a bit the last few years, but found a home this year at Strasbourg. This was actually the first season since he moved from Paraguay to Europe that he’s played over 10s 90s.

image via Scout Lab

Paraguay didn’t have a single player score more than five goals during World Cup qualifying, so their attack is pretty spread out. The one thing you’ll see is that Enciso will take a lot of their shots. Despite only playing 8.8 90s during World Cup qualifying, he still led the team with 24 total shots.

With Paraguay’s strength being their defense, Omar Alderete is going to be crucial to their success. He is downright one of the most physical defenders that you will find in world football. He was a mainstay in Sunderland’s defense this season, which was one of the better low-block defending teams in the league.

Paraguay Tactics

Paraguay is a very physical team and also very difficult to break down.

They typically defend in a 4-4-2 like this against Argentina, with the back line staying very narrow and pushing up to reduce the space in between the lines.

Throughout qualifying, what teams had to do to break them down was play balls over the top because not only is it really difficult to play through the middle, but they are very good at defending crosses.

Offensively, their numbers aren’t up there with some of the other teams in South America because they are mainly a counterattacking team that also puts a big emphasis on set pieces.

They love to win the ball out of their midfield to launch a counterattack.

Like Arsenal and many teams around the world of football, they love to pile into the six-yard box to try and win a wrestling match. This is how they created a majority of their high-quality chances during qualifying.

Here is the deal: when you play Paraguay, you are going to have to win a majority of the duels, be aggressive in possession, and not get dominated on set pieces. Those three foundations make them a really difficult team and one that I think will shock a lot of people at this World Cup.

World Cup Preview: #40 South Africa - #33 Algeria

Unexpected Goals — Tue, 26 May 2026 08:30:56 GMT

Today, we continue the podcast, previewing every World Cup team before the tournament starts on June 11th.

These podcasts will be in groups of eight, starting with my lowest-ranked teams and eventually moving up to my highest-rated teams.

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

Today, we are taking a look at South Africa, Jordan, New Zealand, Tunisia, DR Congo, Australia, Ghana, and Algeria.

Stay tuned to my Substack, where I post team previews daily.

#SouthAfrica #Jordan #NewZealand #Tunisia #DRCongo #Australia #Ghana #Algeria #WorldCup #FIFAWorldCup #GroupA #GroupD #GroupF #GroupG #GroupJ #GroupK #GroupL

World Cup Preview: #22 South Korea

Unexpected Goals — Tue, 26 May 2026 07:01:56 GMT

Continuing on with previewing each of the 48 teams in the World Cup today, we are taking a deeper look at South Korea.

This is the 12th time South Korea has participated in the World Cup, but the only time they’ve made it past the Round of 16 was on home soil in 2002. They are coming off a very impressive qualifying campaign and are, without a doubt, the second-best team in Asia behind Japan. They are in a very favorable group with Mexico, South Africa, and the Czech Republic, so could we see them make a deep run this summer?

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

#25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

#24 Sweden

#23 Turkey

How did they get here?

Asian World Cup qualifying consists of essentially five rounds.

South Korea was placed in an easy group with China, Thailand, and Singapore. They drew one match against Thailand but outscored their opponents 20-1.

Second Round Qualifying

They were drawn again in a fairly easy third-round qualifying group. South Korea went unbeaten and topped the group over Jordan by six points.

Third Round Qualifying

South Korea Stats

All data is from Footystats.org

South Korea was insanely impressive during World Cup qualifying. Not only did they go unbeaten, but they had a +18.03 expected goal differential in only 16 matches.

Defensively, Jordan was the only team in World Cup qualifying to concede more than one expected goal against them.

The worry for South Korea is they really haven’t played that difficult of competition. Myung-bo Hong took over as manager after the Asian Cup and has done a really nice job.

Like I have said many times, I don’t put too much stock into friendlies, but with a team like South Korea, which hasn’t played anyone close to the caliber they will at the World Cup, it becomes relevant.

Credit to the South Korean FA for scheduling many difficult opponents. They’ve had some mixed results, beating some lower-tier World Cup teams, but getting dominated by the likes of Brazil and the Ivory Coast.

image via transfermarkt.com

In those friendlies, South Korea’s numbers really weren’t that impressive.

South Korea Friendly Stats

All data is from Footystats.org & FotMob

South Korea Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

This will more than likely be the last World Cup for Heung-Min Son as the captain. He is struggling to find the back of the net for LAFC in MLS this season, and to be honest, there is a lot more to this South Korean attack.

If he weren’t playing for PSG, Kang-In Lee could probably get into any Starting XI in the world outside of a few teams.

He gets quite a bit of playing time in Ligue 1 when PSG rotates its squad and puts up elite passing, crossing, and ball progression numbers.

image via Scout Lab

Kim Min-Jae struggled to find playing time at Bayern Munich this season, but is still highly regarded as one of the better center-backs in the Bundesliga. He is crucial to South Korea’s back line because the midfield in front of him, in terms of ball winning, is pretty weak.

South Korea Tactics

There is something interesting about South Korea, and it has to do with its formation. During World Cup qualifying them primarily played out of a standard 4-2-3-1 that you see all over world football today.

However, in almost all of their friendlies, he switched them to a 3-4-3.

The tactics, though, for South Korea in possession did not really change. They are very much a team that is going ot try and play short passes through you, rather than relying on long balls over the top.

Here, against the Ivory Coast, they have Jin-Gyu Kim operating as a single pivot and eventually drop all of their forwards in deep.

The ball then gets rotated wide, and the other two forwards rotate over with Hee-Chan Hwang to create a passing triangle.

You can even see here, against the United States, how many players they are trying to get around the ball to play through opponents, or, at the very least, isolate their players 1 v 1 (Son made a run in behind and scored from this sequence).

They will play direct over the top when they need to, but they don’t, because I think it highlights this team's weakness: winning 1 v 1 matchups.

That is why you see them trying to overload their opponents through the first phase of build-up. Here, they have a 7 v 6 against the United States, so it’s as simple as finding the free man and playing through them with short passes.

It’s not a coincidence that their highest xG total allowed over the past three years came against the most physical team in Asia: Australia.

South Korea will defend in a 5-3-2 and will press high if they feel they can create problems. However, when you watch specifically their friendly against the Ivory Coast, you’ll see that most of the goals they conceded simply came down to losing duels.

World Cup Preview: #23 Turkey

Unexpected Goals — Mon, 25 May 2026 18:01:42 GMT

Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Turkey.

This is only the third time Turkey has qualified for the World Cup. The last time they competed in this competition, they went on a magical run in South Korea in 2002, finishing third. They are coming off a quarterfinals trip at the Euros in 2024, so they will be a tough out in this tournament.

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

#25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

#24 Sweden

How did they get here?

UEFA World Cup qualifying is split into two rounds. In the first round, all European countries are divided into 12 groups, with the winners of each group automatically qualifying for the World Cup.

Turkey finished second in their qualifying group, three points behind Spain, and qualified for the second-round playoffs.

They were drawn to play Romania in the first round of the playoffs and beat them 1-0. They then traveled to Kosovo and beat them 1-0 to qualify for the World Cup.

Turkey Stats

All data is from Footystats.org

Outside of their opening match against Georgia at the Euros, Turkey really wasn’t that impressive offensively, and more importantly, they were one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament.

Georgia was the only team to allow a higher xG per 90 minutes than Turkey, and it came down to them allowing far too many high-quality chances.

Their xG per shot of 0.13 was the worst of anyone in the tournament, and they also allowed the most goals from set pieces.

Vincenzo Montella was in charge of that Euro squad and didn’t really improve their defense during qualifying. They were hammered 6-0 by Spain in the first meeting and were lucky to draw in the second, conceding 2.61 expected goals.

They allowed 1.56 xG per 90 minutes in World Cup qualifying, which was 21st among the 54 teams in Europe.

Offensively, they are dangerous and can create chances against anybody. They averaged 54.1% possession during qualifying and almost two expected goals per 90 minutes.

However, while the underlying numbers look good, the rest of their stats really are not that impressive.

Turkey Offensive Stats

All data is from FotMob & on a per 90-minute basis

Turkey Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

Note: This is the projected roster, not the official one.

All of the talent in Turkey’s squad is in their attack.

The entire attack runs through Real Madrid’s Arda Guler. He worked his way into the most difficult starting XI to get into and put incredible numbers for Los Blancos this season.

image via Scout Lab

For Turkey during World Cup qualifying, he was involved in five of Turkey’s goals and will be the key to their attack.

The other big name in Turkey’s attack is Kenan Yıldız.

He was one of the best wingers in Serie A this season because he is a deadly 1 v 1 dribbler and finishes at a high rate. He is a big key to the way Montella wants to attack in the final third.

He scored 10 goals and provided six assists for Juventus this season, but overall he was one of the best chance creators in Italy.

Turkey Tactics

When they played Romania in qualifying, they weren’t taking too many chances by using Kerem Aktürkoglu as a false nine, trying to create a five-man overload centrally while also maintaining a good rest defense on the perimeter so that Romania couldn’t counterattack them easily.

This is what Montella really tries to do in possession. He places a strong emphasis on overloading the middle, which can isolate their wingers to go 1 v 1 against the opposing fullbacks.

Having a player of Arda Guler's caliber is so important when you are trying to break down low-block defenses, because the ball he delivered to Kadioglu for the lone goal of the match against Romania was sublime.

Turkey is also a pretty good set-piece team, scoring six of their goals from set-pieces in qualifying, which was the fourth-highest mark in Europe.

Defensively, they are a bit passive, as their PPDA during qualifying was 14.37. They vary between a 4-4-2 and 5-3-2, depending on the opponent, but they really aren’t that great of a low-block defending team.

If you go back and watch the highlights from their 6-0 defeat to Spain, you’ll see they got played through time and time again.

Turkey is in a favorable group with the United States, Paraguay, and Australia, but once they have to face an elite team, they are going to get destroyed.

World Cup Preview: #24 Sweden

Unexpected Goals — Mon, 25 May 2026 14:30:51 GMT

Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Sweden.

Sweden benefited from their Nations League finish to reach their 13th World Cup. The Swedes have actually finished 4th, 3rd, and runners-up at the World Cup. Their last appearance was in 2018 in Russia, where they reached the quarterfinals.

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

#25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

How did they get here?

Sweden is incredibly lucky to even be in the World Cup.

UEFA World Cup qualifying is split into two rounds. In the first round, all European countries are divided into 12 groups, with the winners of each group automatically qualifying for the World Cup.

Sweden was as bad as you could possibly be in World Cup qualifying. They finished at the bottom of their group with only two points, with both draws coming against Slovenia.

This is the definition of the Nations League teams that potentially could have been selected from Wikipedia:

Based on the 2024–25 UEFA Nations League interim overall ranking, the four best-ranked Nations League group winners that finished outside the top two of their qualifying group advanced to the play-offs. If fewer than four Nations League group winners had been selected, the remaining spot(s) would have been allocated to the best-ranked remaining team(s) in the Nations League interim overall ranking that finished outside the top two of their qualifying group.

At the start of qualifying, the teams in the table below were potentially able to receive a play-off spot in the order given:

Because eight teams ahead of them finished first or second in their qualifying group, Sweden advanced to the second-round qualifying playoffs.

Graham Potter came in right before the playoffs and led them to a 3-1 win over Ukraine. Then they beat Poland 3-2 in dramatic fashion, with Viktor Gyökeres scoring an 88th-minute goal to send them to the World Cup.

Sweden Stats

All data is from Footystats.org

As you can imagine, Sweden’s stats are not good, given how bad their qualifying campaign was. They also failed to qualify for the Euros in 2024 after finishing third in a group with Belgium and Austria.

Sweden has basically had an even expected goal differential since 2023, but the real issues are in their defense. Switzerland completely took it to them in their two meetings, which is not a good sign, given they are in a group with the Netherlands and Japan.

What is interesting is that you may think Sweden is more of a direct team, but that was certainly not the case during qualifying. They barely held over 50% possession, but averaged only 18.8 accurate long balls per 90 minutes, ranking 47th among the 54 qualifying teams.

Of course, many of these stats are only partially relevant, since Graham Potter has been in charge for only two matches.

Sweden Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

Note: This is the projected roster, not the official one.

Despite Sweden’s poor qualifying performance, they have a striking partnership (when healthy) that will send shivers down your spine.

Alexander Isak spent most of the season injured for Liverpool, but when healthy, I think we need to be reminded that he’s, after Haaland, the best striker in the Premier League.

He also has a perfect striking partner in Viktor Gyökeres. Gyökeres may not have lit the world on fire at Arsenal this season, but he certainly wasn’t a flop. He does a lot of the dirty work, holding up play, winning duels, and freeing up space for Isak to run into.

If Graham Potter can figure out a system that works with both Isak and Gyökeres on the pitch, they have the potential to upset anybody.

Sweden Tactics

One thing to remember about Graham Potter is he typically doesn’t stick to a single tactical identity. Instead, he likes to prepare his team to set up for the opponent they are facing.

He had them in a 5-3-2 against both Ukraine and Poland. After scoring early against both teams they conceded a lot of possession, but neither team could really do it. Here is all that Ukraine was able to do.

image via FotMob

There were times where they would press from goal kick situations like this forcing Ukraine to play long.

However, you can see here that they typically only commit the front five, which makes it pretty easy to overload them.

If you can sustain any type of build up against Sweden, you could probably easily progress the ball into the final third.

The bigger question with Sweden is how do you start Gyökeres and Isak up top and make everything work? The simple answer is play a 3-5-2 right?

Well that is what Sweden primarily played out of in qualifying and that went terribly. With Isak injured, Potter lined Sweden up in a 3-4-3, which honestly fit the squad a lot better.

They have two really talented wingbacks and a really solid midfield pairing, so it will be interesting what Potter decides to do with the formation.

World Cup Preview: #25 Bosnia and Herzegovina

Unexpected Goals — Sat, 23 May 2026 17:23:16 GMT

Continuing my preview of the 48 World Cup teams today, we are taking a deeper look at Bosnia and Herzegovina.

This will be the second-ever appearance at the World Cup for Bosnia and Herzegovina. They were part of Yugoslavia until 1992, so they don’t have a long history in this tournament. They are one of the better underdog stories, beating both Wales and Italy in penalty shootouts to qualify for this World Cup.

For those who do not know, I have my own International Ratings, which I have built over the years, and you can find them here.

I will go in reverse order of my rankings, starting with my lowest-rated team and working up to my top-ranked team.

This will simply be a breakdown of each team. I will save my analysis for how they match up with each team for my group previews, which will come out a little closer to the week of the World Cup.

In case you missed it, check out my previous previews:

#44 Cape Verde Islands

How did they get here?

UEFA World Cup qualifying is split into two rounds. In the first round, all European countries are divided into 12 groups, with the winners of each group automatically qualifying for the World Cup.

Bosnia and Herzegovina finished second in their qualifying group, two points behind Austria, and qualified for the second-round playoffs.

They were drawn to play Wales in the first round of the playoffs and scored an 87th minute goal to send the match to extra time and then evenutally won on penalties.

Bosnia and Herzegovina then pulled off a stunning upset, beating Italy on penalties at home to qualify for the World Cup.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Stats

All data is from Footystats.org

Bosnia and Herzegovina is a very interesting team. They have actually never qualified for the Euros, and to be honest, haven’t really put up that impressive of underlying numbers.

I am sure the 3.38 xG against Italy looks impressive, but we have to remember that Italy was playing down a man after Bastoni got a red card in the 41st minute. In the first half, Bosnia racked up 13 shots and only created 0.58 xG.

image via FotMob

One thing about Bosnia is that they were matched up against two of the worst teams in Europe during the last Euro and World Cup qualifying rounds. If you remove their four matches against Liechtenstein and San Marino, they only had a +0.52 xGD.

What you’ll find when you look through Bosnia’s stats is that nothing really sticks out because they have a couple of outlier matches against San Marino. For example, overall in Euro qualifying, they held 50% of the ball, but against San Marino, they averaged 70%.

Their accurate long balls per 90 minutes were near the bottom because they didn’t really face that difficult of competition.

They average a high number of accurate crosses and have a high percentage of their shots and expected goals coming from set pieces.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Key Players

All data is from transfermarkt.com

Note: This is the projected roster, not the official one.

This will be a very sentimental World Cup for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s greatest player, Edin Džeko. At 40 years old, he led them with six goals during qualifying, but there is plenty more to this attack.

Ermedin Demirovic is another target man up front that is very crucial to Bosnia’s style of play. He had an insane finishing season for Vfb Stuttgart, averaging 0.72 goals per 90 minutes from only 0.41 xG per 90 minutes.

image via Scout Lab

Bosnia and Herzegovina also has one of the better up-and-coming right-backs in Europe in Amar Dedic. He’s been a ball carrying machine up the right hand flank for Benfica this season, ranking as the best fullback in the Portuguese Primeira Liga in progressive carries per 90 minutes.

Bosnia and Herzegovina has an 18-year-old wonder kid who may start on the left wing. Kerim Alajbegović is currently playing for RB Salzburg in the Austrian Bundesliga and has 12 goal involvements, with some insane offensive numbers for his age.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Tactics

Bosnia is a very direct team that primarily relies on winning duels and second balls.

What you will see a lot from them is switching the play to the opposite end of the pitch to create 2 v 1s and then piling a bunch of their big forwards in the box to try to get on the end of a cross.

Bosnia is a big set-piece team, and they’ve gone with the trend of most teams in world football of piling everyone in the six-yard box. It makes sense given their size and height.

They rarely will build out of the back (that’s how they conceded against Italy), but they will at the very least draw the press in so that their forwards will get isolated against the opponent’s centerbacks.

Defensively, they are your standard mid-to-low block 4-4-2 team, but they will man-mark at times out of it, so good teams that can drop forwards in deep are going to give them problems.